Drivers Most in Danger of Being Eliminated in Contender Round of 2014 Chase
For the first time in NASCAR history, we have a 12-way tie for first place.
Yes, you read that right: 12 drivers, all in first place—or last, if you want to look at it from a "glass half full, glass half empty" viewpoint.
But that 12-way tie won't last very long as we move into Round 2 of NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup, the Contender Round.
Sunday's race at Kansas, next Saturday's race at Charlotte and then the always unpredictable wild card at Talladega in three weeks will cut the field eventually to only eight drivers.
So, who are the top candidates to be eliminated in the upcoming Contender Round?
In our mind, five of the current 12-driver field are in trouble heading into this weekend's Contender Round opener at Kansas Speedway.
Check it out!
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
1 of 5
Yes, we know this is arguably Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s best chance of winning the championship—and we'd love to see nothing less. Plus, it's also crew chief Steve Letarte's final season atop the pit box before he moves on to the TV booth as an analyst for NBC next season.
But let's face it, Junior did not have the greatest first round (Challenger Round), finishing 11th at Chicagoland, ninth at New Hampshire and 17th this past Sunday at Dover. And while he's mathematically tied for first heading into Kansas thanks to the reseeding of the standings following Dover, he's in big trouble if he has similar finishes to what he had in Round 1.
Earnhardt has to go for wins at Kansas (where he has yet to win) and Charlotte (where he's also never won), because Talladega is too much of a crapshoot for anyone who's on the Chase bubble at that point.
Kyle Busch
2 of 5
Kyle Busch had the best Chase of his career last season, finishing fourth in the final standings. But if he expects to make it to the third round (Eliminator Round) or the final four in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the younger Busch brother must pick up his game like he never has.
Let's face it, one win, six top-five and 12 top-10 finishes to date may have been enough to get him into the Chase and through the first round, but Busch will need nothing less than top-five finishes in each of the next six races in order to comfortably expect to move on to Round 3.
Granted, he's not off to that bad of a start in the Chase, with finishes of seventh, eighth and 10th in the first three races.
But a win at either Kansas or Charlotte will get him into the next round for sure. If he thinks he can wait until Talladega and still advance, it'll potentially be too little, too late at that point.
Ryan Newman
3 of 5
We really like Ryan Newman. He'd make the perfect Cinderella story in this year's Chase. But we're reminded of his record thus far in 2014—zero wins, only two top-fives and 11 top-10s—and how he barely managed to sneak into this year's Chase.
Newman is in a pivotal role as the only representative in the Chase from Richard Childress Racing. What's more, he has not had that great of a start to the Chase, finishing 15th, 18th and eighth in the first three races of the playoffs.
He's also in an ironic position in the sense that the driver who "replaced" Newman at Stewart-Haas Racing after he was released at the end of last season, Kurt Busch, was eliminated from the Chase after Dover.
But the top-10s Newman has had up to now aren't going to be good enough in the second round of the Chase. He needs a win or, at the very least, three top-five finishes in a row.
Can he do it?
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Denny Hamlin
4 of 5
Denny Hamlin comes into Round 2 of the Chase with just one win, six top-fives and 12 top-10s.
Because things will be ratcheted up much more significantly in Round 2, all it'll take is one really bad race in the next three and Hamlin will likely be done.
He started the Chase off strong at Chicagoland (sixth), only to have a devastating 37th-place finish at New Hampshire, followed by a rebound in 12th place at Dover.
Every year that Hamlin has been in the Chase, his fans have asked, "Is this going to be Denny's year to finally win the Sprint Cup championship?" Unfortunately, unless he can pull together top-five finishes in the next three races—including at the always wild and unpredictable Talladega—you may want to start looking for someone else to cheer for in Round 3.
Kasey Kahne
5 of 5
Kasey Kahne had to drive his guts out to not only win at Atlanta last month, but for the better part of the regular season just to qualify for the Chase. Unfortunately, Kahne's first three Chase races have gone from fair to forgettable. He finished 13th at Chicagoland, followed by a 23rd-place finish at New Hampshire and a 20th-place finish this past Sunday at Dover.
While he may have been lucky to make the Chase by the skin of his teeth, and then again managed to get through Round 1 in almost the same fashion, he won't be as lucky in Round 2.
Kahne comes into the second round with just one win, three top-fives and 10 top-10s. Those are NOT the numbers that championships are built upon.
Of all the five drivers we have mentioned here, Kahne is practically the only driver who is in a must-win situation. He won't be able to advance to Round 3 unless his consistency and finishing performance picks up markedly.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
