Doug Martin's Updated 2014 Fantasy Outlook Heading into Week 5

Concerns of a backfield by committee in Tampa Bay were quelled in Week 4, as Doug Martin returned from his knee injury and out-touched Bobby Rainey, 16-5.

But the good news for Martin owners pretty much dies right there. The Muscle Hamster looked more like a Muscle Slug against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense depleted by injuries, compiling just 56 total yards (3.5 per touch) and failing to put a stranglehold on the starting job. Martin saved his day with a three-yard touchdown run, and he is very clearly the lead back, but his lead over Rainey is tenuous.

As 4for4.com's John Paulsen and Josh Moore noted, Rainey was still trusted in important situations despite the minuscule workload:

On the season, Martin is now averaging 2.1 yards per carry and two targets per game, while Rainey is at 4.9 and 3.75 respectively. However, apprehension regarding ball security—Rainey lost two fumbles against Atlanta in Week 3—was likely a main culprit for the discrepancy in snaps against Pittsburgh.

Rainey recently discussed amending that problem, via ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas:

"

It's something that I can’t do, period. I’ve got to take care of the ball. I will do that starting off today and here on out. I will take care of the ball. The team doesn’t have to worry about me losing the ball again. What I get paid to do is protect the ball and that’s what I’ll do.

"

If he holds on to the ball and continues to produce as such a drastically more efficient rate than Martin, Lovie Smith and his staff won't be able to keep him off the field.

That makes the Boise State product an especially risky play week-in and week-out. Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints will be no different.

Sean Payton's squad has been up and down in terms of fantasy production against opposing running backs, stifling Steven Jackson and Matt Asiata, while getting torched against the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys:

Player	CAR	YDS	AVG	REC	YDS	TD (RUS/REC)	FAN PTS
Steven Jackson	12	52	4.3	1	0	0/0	5.2
Jacquizz Rodgers	6	34	5.7	0	0	1/0	9.4
Terrence West	19	68	3.4	2	22	1/0	15
Isaiah Crowell	11	54	4.9	1	3	0/0	5.7
Matt Asiata	12	35	2.9	3	36	0/0	7.1
DeMarco Murray	24	149	6.2	1	6	2/0	27.5

To be fair, everyone has been gashed by DeMarco Murray thus far, so the Saints giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs is slightly misleading.

Also note this one will be at the Superdome, where the Saints—who will be especially amped at 1-3 and coming off an embarrassing nationally televised loss—are typically much better.

Ultimately, if you're thin at running back, you probably aren't going to be able to afford to keep Martin on the bench. He's getting starter's carries, and that's awfully valuable.

Until he shows a glimpse of his rookie form, though, he's going to keep performing as a touchdown-dependent, low-end RB2 or flex option.