Week 5 NFL Picks: Latest Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections

Although records can be deceiving, four weeks of NFL action have provided a better indication of what to expect from each team.

Seemingly every squad has been challenged by a tough opponent and either lived up to the task or faded away, which is much more telling than earning a winning record against mediocre opponents.

That makes picking games in Week 5 much easier than it was in the first few weeks. With that in mind, here is a look at predictions against the spread for the upcoming set of games.

Date	Away	Home	ATS Pick*
Oct. 2	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	GB -10
Oct. 5	Chicago Bears	Carolina Panthers	CHI +2.5
Oct. 5	Cleveland Browns	Tennessee Titans	CLE +1.5
Oct. 5	St. Louis Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7.5
Oct. 5	Atlanta Falcons	New York Giants	NYG -4
Oct. 5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New Orleans Saints	TB +12
Oct. 5	Houston Texans	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -4
Oct. 5	Buffalo Bills	Detroit Lions	DET -9
Oct. 5	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	IND -3.5
Oct. 5	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jacksonville Jaguars	PIT -7
Oct. 5	Arizona Cardinals	Denver Broncos	ARI +8
Oct. 5	Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	SF -6
Oct. 5	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers	SD -7.5
Oct. 5	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	CIN +1
Oct. 6	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins	SEA -8.5

Upsets to Watch

Chicago Bears (+2.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers came into the year with one of the best defenses in the league, but it is hard to make that argument at this point, as they allowed 75 points in their last two games. The loss of Greg Hardy has decimated this group, as Peter Schrager of Fox Sports argues:

With no one to create a pass rush, Jay Cutler will have all the time in the world to throw the ball downfield to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. 

On the other side of the ball, Chicago has struggled to defend the run over the past year. The good news is that the Panthers are out of running backs, with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert all hurt. One or two of them might play in Week 5, but they will not be at 100 percent.

This will put more pressure on Cam Newton, who has not had much time to throw the ball behind a struggling offensive line.

After two good wins, the Panthers have been playing poorly in all phases of the game. The Bears should be able to take advantage and get a quality road win.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1) at New England Patriots

Al Behrman/Associated Press

After being blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady explained the situation best during his postgame news conference:

"

It was a bad performance by everybody and just want to make sure we never have this feeling again. I think there’s not much we are doing well enough on a consistent basis -- run game, pass game, consistently when we have to throw it, have to run it, convert on third down, red area. It’s all a problem. 

"

Everything seemed to go wrong for New England in Monday night's 41-14 loss, but it was not a fluke. The Patriots struggled to beat the Oakland Raiders at home in Week 3 and were only able to pull away from the Minnesota Vikings thanks to four Matt Cassel interceptions. 

The struggles the Patriots are dealing with now are going to hurt them for the rest of the year.

On the other hand, the Bengals have appeared to be one of the best teams in the NFL this season without any major holes on either side of the ball. The defense has allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL, while the offense has shown great balance with success on the ground and through the air.

Even going on the road, Cincinnati should be able to remain undefeated with a win over the Patriots.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12) at New Orleans Saints

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

The Saints are always much better at home, which makes this game a good chance for a bounce-back performance. They are a disappointing 1-3 this year, but all three losses have come on the road.

You could look at this SportsCenter statistic and simply assume that is the only problem:

However, the one game at home was not much better, as it was 20-9 victory against the Vikings. The offense moved the ball at points, but only until flaming out before getting a score. To make matters worse, the defense could not create a big play to help out.

In fact, the lack of takeaways has been a major problem lately for New Orleans, according to Jeff Duncan of The Times-Picayune:

While the Buccaneers have also struggled this season, they showed with a Week 4 win that they are not that bad. A healthy Doug Martin should have a lot of running room against the Saints defense, and this group should at least be able to keep it close.

New Orleans is in no position to be giving 12 points to anyone right now, and bettors should take advantage.

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