NFL Week 5 Picks: Predicting the Winner of All 15 Matchups

In years past, Week 5 is typically the point where the best of the best, when it comes to NFL picks, pull away for good.

Not this season, folks.

"Parity" seems to be the common buzzword to describe the wildly unpredictable outcomes that have stumped the globe to date. Regardless of the reason, the early goings of this year have been unkind to those who typically beat their chest over picks records.

There was none of that last week, not with Tampa Bay taking down Pittsburgh and Baltimore eradicating Carolina, among other eyebrow-raising outcomes.

Below, let's take a look at the full slate and focus in on a few of the week's tougher calls.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Matchup	Pick	Reason
Minnesota at Green Bay (Thurs., Oct. 2)	Green Bay	Teddy Bridgewater or not, Green Bay is firing on all cylinders and won't be stopped at home.
Chicago at Carolina	Carolina	Chicago's defense is downright not talented enough to capitalize on a hobbled Carolina backfield.
Cleveland at Tennessee	Cleveland	Tennessee is arguably the worst team in the league, while Cleveland had a bye week to prepare.
St. Louis at Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Chip Kelly's offense will not find it difficult to rediscover balance and productivity against the leaky St. Louis defense.
Atlanta at NY Giants	NY Giants	Eli Manning and Co. have finally wrapped their brains around the new, efficient offense. Atlanta's defense and offensive line is a mess.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	New Orleans	Tampa Bay looks better with Mike Glennon under center, but few escape New Orleans with a win.
Houston at Dallas	Dallas	Dallas limps into this one on the defensive side of the ball, but it won't matter much against the Houston offense.
Buffalo at Detroit	Detroit	Detroit is arguably the best team in the league thanks to a strong run defense and potent offense.
Baltimore at Indianapolis	Baltimore	Indianapolis has yet to beat a credible opponent, while Baltimore has won three straight and looks great offensively.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville	Pittsburgh	See analysis below.
Arizona at Denver	Denver	Unless Carson Palmer comes back and is in great form, Peyton Manning will eventually overtake a strong defense.
Kansas City at San Francisco	San Francisco	San Francisco will be able to take advantage of a coaching staff that struggles to implement its best players.
NY Jets at San Diego	San Diego	Philip Rivers is the hottest player in the league at the moment and will have no issues posting more points than New York's quarterbacks.
Cincinnati at New England	Cincinnati	See analysis below.
Seattle at Washington (Mon., Oct. 6)	Seattle	Kirk Cousins was exposed last week, the beginning of a trend that only gets worse upon a visit from Seattle.

Breaking Down Tough Matchups

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

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About a week ago, this one seemed all too obvious. Now, not so much.

Pittsburgh is partially to blame. The Steelers were sloppy at best against formerly winless Tampa Bay last week, racking up 13 total penalties for a costly 125 yards. Things broke down in the waning moments of the game, with Tampa Bay getting a go-ahead touchdown from backup Mike Glennon with seven seconds left.

Jacksonville is to blame, too. The team went all-in with rookie quarterback Blake Bortles, and while the result was a loss on the road in San Diego, Bortles was sound with 253 yards and one touchdown to two interceptions.

Jeff Darlington of NFL.com adds one critical detail: 

So while Pittsburgh and a strong offense that features Ben Roethlisberger, an elite wideout in Antonio Brown (427 yards and five touchdowns) and a bell-cow back in Le'Veon Bell (378 yards and a score on a 5.3 per-carry average) looked strong with a win against Carolina recently, the team then turned around and shot itself in the foot by allowing Glennon to go for 302 yards and a pair of scores.

Now the Steelers must hit the road and take on Bortles in his debut at home, which should draw a major crowd and make the life of Mike Tomlin's team even more difficult.

Make no mistake, a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last against the pass with an average of 320.8 yards allowed per game will struggle mightily to contain Brown and others. Bell will have plenty of room to operate as well considering the Jaguars rank No. 25 with 130.5 rushing yards surrendered per game.

Still, there is something to be said for a rejuvenated team behind the arm of a new leader making his debut at home. Pittsburgh's alarming set of self-inflicted wounds and Glennon's success bodes well as the Jaguars seek out their first win of the season.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Steelers 23

Cincinnati at New England

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In each of the past five seasons or so, the knee-jerk reaction here would be to check the box next to New England and swiftly move on to the next decision.

Things are different now.

Cincinnati lost coordinators on both sides of the football but has not skipped a beat. Andy Dalton is completing 65.5 percent of his passes and leads a borderline top-10 passing attack, while the defense continues to fluster opponents, giving up all of 17 points combined in its last two games.

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Meanwhile, New England has mostly fallen short of rather grand expectations, most notably struggling to score more than 16 points against Oakland in Week 3 before a complete implosion in Kansas City. In fact, the passing game with Tom Brady has been a weakness, whereas the rush and pass defense has been borderline elite and carried the team.

Sunday represents arguably the first time that stout Patriots defense will be greatly tested this season. The offense around Dalton allows him to be efficient, while the ground game with Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill (the team ranks in the top half of the league with 121.7 rushing yards per game) can certainly do major damage if unchecked, which will in turn keep Brady off the field.

There is something to be said for the fact these Bengals with Dalton at the helm traditionally struggle under the national spotlight. But this year seems different. It started with a win in Baltimore, something the team had not done in a handful of years.

“We’re playing with a lot of confidence,” Dalton said, per Joe Kay of The Associated Press, via The Washington Times. “It’s not just one side of the ball. It’s every phase of the game. It makes it fun.”

A win in Foxborough on Sunday Night Football against a relatively underperforming team on a short week is not all that hard to foresee for arguably the most balanced team in the league.

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Oakland and Miami on bye.