Why the Eastern Conference Is Watching Ryan Johansen's Contract Standoff

In a year where quality centres are dropping like flies in the Eastern Conference, one team has a perfectly healthy, perfectly high-end pivot sitting out of training camp thanks to a contract dispute. It’s a squabble that looks set to have a massive impact on the playoff picture out East, both in terms of what it means on the ice for the Columbus Blue Jackets and what it could do the NHL’s trade market at centre.

The most obvious impact is the one on the Blue Jackets’ playoff hopes. A year ago, Columbus just squeaked into the postseason, finishing just three points ahead of the ninth-place Washington Capitals.

In some ways that’s misleading (the Blue Jackets had a plus-15 goal differential and 38 regulation/overtime wins to the Caps’ minus-five and 28 ROW), but it does make it clear that not much would have needed to go wrong for the team to miss out on the playoffs.

The absence of Ryan Johansen, who led all Blue Jackets forwards in not just scoring but also even-strength and power-play ice time, for any length of time might be just such an event.

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Thus, the Johansen contract dispute represents opportunity for many teams, including but not limited to the following:

• the Capitals, who have a new coach, a reworked defence and will have a full season from Evgeny Kuznetsov
• the New Jersey Devils, who went a ridiculous 0-13 in the shootout last season and leaned heavily on the reanimated corpse of Martin Brodeur in their pursuit of the postseason; they’ll be better off minus their ancient goaltending legend and will be hard-pressed to repeat their shootout work
• the New York Islanders, who added a real NHL goalie and two-thirds of a second line
• the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are preaching a new philosophy and have reworked their forward depth

One of the great changes to the NHL under the watch of Gary Bettman has been the increased parity between teams, and the gap both in real talent and in points between the clubs on the right side and the wrong side of the playoff bubble is smaller than it’s ever been.

Back in 2003-04, there were only two teams within five points of the eighth-place New York Islanders (one ahead, one behind) in the East. Last season, three teams were fewer than four points ahead of eighth-place Detroit, and three other clubs were trailing by five points or fewer.

When the gaps between the teams are that small, the little things can have a massive impact. That means every team anywhere near the playoff bubble out East already has to be thrilled that Johansen is missing camp and may miss a significant portion of the season before one side or the other folds.

But oddly enough there is a second contingent of teams that may have more mixed feelings about Johansen’s contract status.

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

In both conferences, centremen are at a premium. When the Nashville Predators signed free agents Mike Ribeiro and Derek Roy on the same Monday in the middle of July, they singlehandedly depleted the list of significant pivots still available; teams that hadn’t made a move were stuck out in the cold.

NHL training camp has increased the demand for pivots, especially out East, where they’ve been dropping like flies:

Columbus is one of the few teams that has a potential surplus of centres, if Johansen is under contract. Behind Johansen, the team can boast second-line pivot Brandon Dubinsky, exceptional third-liner Artem Anisimov, 34-point man Mark Letestu and standout rookie Boone Jenner (who was forced to shift to the wing in 2013-14).

If there’s a team out there willing to trade to address its hole at centre ice, the Jackets are a likely partner—but only if they get their first-line guy signed.

Ironically, it’s that list of talent at centre that makes it easier for Columbus to play contract hardball. While Johansen’s camp is doubtless banking on the team’s fears of missing the postseason, the Blue Jackets can reasonably roll with what they have and hope that a strong start gives them the necessary leverage to compel Johansen to accept a team-friendly deal.  

All of that makes Columbus a team to watch in the early going in 2014-15. Some teams will be licking their lips in anticipation of a slow start from a team they hope to catch; others will be looking at all that wonderful centre depth and ruing the fact that none of it is attainable.

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work. Statistics via NHL.com.