NFL Picks Week 4: Latest Odds, Schedule and Predictions

The parity-era of the NFL is a boon to fans and fantasy football mavens but a scourge for oddsmakers and those in the prediction business. With the NFL's expanded schedule, the phrase "any given Sunday" now applies to the middle of the week.

The New York Giants trounced the Washington Redskins by a score of 45-14 on Thursday night, a result few saw coming with Eli Manning's erratic early-season play and the emergence of 'Skins signal-caller Kirk Cousins.

The script was indeed flipped in that contest, with Manning accounting for five scores (four passing, one rushing) and Cousins tossing four picks. Unexpected performances like that keep the butts in the seats and the eyes glued to the television sets week in and week out.

In the face of all this madness, let's take a look at the latest odds and Week 4 schedule and make some predictions for each of the remaining games.

Date	Time (ET)	TV	Away	Home	Spread	Prediction
Sep 28	1 p.m.	FOX	Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	GB -1	GB 27-21 CHI
Sep 28	1 p.m.	CBS	Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	HOU -2.5	BUF 17-10 HOU
Sep 28	1 p.m.	CBS	Tennessee Titans	Indianapolis Colts	IND -9	IND 28-20 TEN
Sep 28	1 p.m.	CBS	Carolina Panthers	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -3.5	CAR 24-21 BAL
Sep 28	1 p.m.	FOX	Detroit Lions	New York Jets	DET -1	DET 28-17 NYJ
Sep 28	1 p.m.	FOX	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -8	PIT 31-13 TB
Sep 28	1 p.m.	CBS	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	MIA -3.5	MIA 20-17 OAK
Sep 28	4:05 p.m.	CBS	Jacksonville Jaguars	San Diego Chargers	SD -14	SD 31-17 JAX
Sep 28	4:25 p.m.	FOX	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	SF -5	PHI 34-31 SF
Sep 28	4:25 p.m.	FOX	Atlanta Falcons	Minnesota Vikings	ATL -3	ATL 27-17 MIN
Sep 28	8:30 p.m.	NBC	New Orleans Saints	Dallas Cowboys	NO -3	NO 35-31 DAL
Sep 29	8:30 p.m.	ESPN	New England Patriots	Kansas City Chiefs	NE -3	NE 21-20 KC

 Note: Odds courtesy of OddsShark.com and updated as of Saturday, September 27.

Upset Watch

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

The Buffalo Bills are perennially disappointing, often showing early-season promise, only to falter as the season chugs along. However, they should still be able to keep up with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Houston Texans on Sunday. 

Their 22-10 home loss to the ball-control masters that are the San Diego Chargers isn't much of a referendum on their overall talent. The Chargers are a good team that beat the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks, and the high winds during the game would have made it tough for any offense to mount a comeback. 

There were some excellent signs for the Bills during the game heading into Week 4. They limited running back Donald Brown—racking up touches with both Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews injured—to 2.0 yards per carry in the contest.

With Arian Foster a game-time decision, per Drew Dougherty of HoustonTexans.com, and possibly limited in terms of playing time and efficiency due to his hamstring injury, the Bills should be able to bottle up Alfred Blue and force Fitzpatrick to beat them. The veteran quarterback has tossed four touchdowns against three interceptions this season.

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

E.J. Manuel has failed to put up any big-time performances this season, but he has just one turnover and has done well to take care of the football. Fitzpatrick was the Bills quarterback prior to Manuel's arrival, so some are billing this as a matchup between the two signal-callers. However, Manuel is focused on winning the game rather than specifically outperforming his opposite.

"I’ve thought about it a little bit, but not really," Manuel said, via Syracuse.com's Matthew Fairburn. "I think it’s more important that we go out here and play well because it’s a huge game for us to finish this quarter 3-1. I think I will be focused more on the game than that matchup because I’m not playing Ryan; I’m playing his defense."

Player	CMP/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	RTG	RSH YDS	RSH TD
Manuel	55/87	613	7.05	3	1	90.8	49	1
Fitzpatrick	48/75	634	8.45	4	3	91.7	44	1

Houston has the 18th-ranked passing defense after 180 minutes of NFL action this season, so look for Bills offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to allow Manuel to take charge of the offense while mixing in runs from C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

The latter halfback also proved to be a reliable safety valve against the Bolts, racking up eight receptions for 78 yards and a touchdowns in the contest. He should continue to provide much-needed stability and safety in the passing game, although fans will hope to see Manuel throwing the ball downfield more often. According to ESPN.com, Manuel has completed just 11 of 28 passes thrown beyond 11 yards this season. His inability to get comfortable throwing the ball downfield is holding this offense back.

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Speaking of Spiller, ESPN.com's Mike Rodak documented the Bills' issues with the rush, citing the fact that Spiller had two carries for negative yardage against the Chargers, with both attempts coming up the middle. He also documented the Bills' failed efforts on another play:

"

Spiller had a similar issue on a well-designed first-and-10 run in the third quarter. The Bills brought Marquise Goodwin in from the outside on a "jet sweep" style motion but ran Spiller up the middle. The misdirection froze an edge defender and the offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage. However, Weddle came in from the secondary and wrapped up Spiller for only a 2-yard gain. 

"

Spiller is at his best when he is allowed to get one-on-one matchups against defenders in the open field. If the Bills can spring him for a few big runs against the Texans, who are giving up 5.2 yards per carry, according to ESPN.com, they should have the edge on offense in this one—as long as they control J.J. Watt.

Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

The Texans defensive end is a disruptor extraordinaire and will be vital to the Texans pass rush, as well as holding the edge and preventing Spiller and Jackson from bouncing runs to the outside. Bills backup guard Kraig Urbik gave a humorous take on the best way to stop Watt.

"If you grab onto his shoulder pads, he can't jump as high," he said, via Sal Maiorana of the Democrat and Chronicle. Indeed, Watt already has two passes defensed on the season, to go along with two tackles and two sacks. If there is one defensive player who can single-handedly take over a game, it's Watt. Limiting his impact will all but ensure a vital road win for the Bills.