Week 4 Projections for NFL's Starting Rookie Quarterbacks

Most rookies get thrown in the fire at some point, but rookie quarterbacks often feel incinerator-level heat when their number is called.

First-round quarterbacks Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater both made their NFL debuts last week in relief of Chad Henne and Matt Cassel, respectively, and they will join the No. 36 overall selection, Derek Carr, as the three starting rookie Week 4 quarterbacks.

According to Tom Pelissero of USA Today, there were 28 first-round quarterbacks drafted from 2004-13, 11 of which entered the starting lineup after Week 1 as rookies. Of those 11, only Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Young led their teams to winning records that season.

As Jacksonville and Oakland are the AFC’s only remaining winless teams, and the Vikings are 1-2, the three rookie quarterbacks starting this week are unlikely to add their names to that note. Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union explains why the remainder of this season is more about the process than the result.  

So how will each starting rookie quarterback fare in Week 4?

Blake Bortles at San Diego 

John Konstantaras/Getty Images

Bortles, the first quarterback selected in the 2014 NFL draft, makes his starting debut at San Diego, facing a defense which is tied for fourth in the league in points allowed per game and 10th in yards per game.

The Chargers, after losing on Week 1 at Arizona, have won two straight, a home win against Seattle in Week 2 and road win at Buffalo in Week 3, holding opposing quarterbacks to 220 yards per game over that span, despite playing with a second-half lead throughout both games.

Bortles completed 62.7 percent (32 of 51) of passes for 521 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the preseason, with 11 completions going for at least 20 yards. He went 14-of-24 for 223 yards, two TDs and two picks last week against Indianapolis, but he entered in a blowout—down 30-0 at halftime before playing the entire second half over Chad Henne.

The Jaguars' plan, after drafting Bortles, was to redshirt the UCF product, but Henne had a short leash after leading the team to 10 points through his last eight quarters. Now, head coach Gus Bradley appears ready to hand the keys to the franchise to the 22-year-old Bortles, hoping to spark an 0-3 club that has been outscored by 75 points through Week 3.

The Chargers had an entire week to prepare for Bortles, as he was named the Week 4 starter in Bradley’s postgame press conference last Sunday.

Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune expects the Chargers to attack with line stunts, blitzes and coverage disguises, similar to the way defensive coordinator John Pagano prepared his defense for Jake Locker when he made his second career start at San Diego in Week 2 of the 2012 season.

Bortles’ ability to read defenses will be tested playing behind an offensive line which starts rookies at center and right guard. He may breathe some life back into the Jacksonville offense, but he needs help from running back Toby Gerhart, who has averaged 2.4 yards per carry this season, and rookie wide receivers Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson.

The Jaguars are currently 14-point underdogs, according to Odds Shark, the largest spread among Week 4 games. While playing from behind may inflate his passing numbers, Bortles is unlikely to upset the Chargers—one of six NFL teams without an interception—in his first career start.

Blake Bortles Week 4 Projection

Comp.	Att.	Yards	TD	INT
21	34	246	2	1

Teddy Bridgewater vs. Atlanta

USA TODAY Sports

Odds Shark has the Vikings as three-point home underdogs to the Falcons, meaning Bridgewater has the best chance to lead his team to an upset of the three games previewed here.

Minnesota traded back into the first round to select Bridgewater at No. 32 in the 2014 draft, but he was the top overall player on Matt Miller’s Big Board, rated as the most NFL-ready and lowest risk by the Bleacher Report NFL draft analyst.

Bridgewater inherited a 13-3 deficit in the Superdome last week after Cassel was carted off with a left toe injury, and he went on to complete 12 of 20 passes for 150 yards, while adding 27 yards on six carries. Sports Illustrated’s Chris Burke broke down the tape, showing how Bridgewater can boost the Vikings offense.

The Falcons rank in the bottom third in the league, allowing 262.7 pass yards per game (24th) and 24 points per game (20th). Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s defense is heavily based on disguised coverages and blitzes, though it registered no sacks and only one quarterback hit in its first two games before recording three sacks and seven quarterback hits in its Week 3 win against Tampa Bay.

Ty Schalter broke down Bridgewater’s game tape from Louisville and wrote:

"

Bridgewater knows his strengths. No prospect in this class more thoroughly understands and executes a pro-style offense. He makes great pre-snap reads and adjustments, quickly goes through many progressions when needed and makes good decisions quickly and consistently. 

"

Bridgewater, who will become the eighth starting quarterback for the Vikings since the 2009 NFC Championship Game, got a vote of confidence from center John Sullivan earlier this week, when he told Kent Youngblood of the Star-Tribune: “A lot of poise for a rookie. I mean, an incredible amount. … I think we should win every single game we play with him at quarterback.”

Of course, for that prediction to come true, Bridgewater will need to be better than he was at his pro day (not that it means anything) and lead the Vikings to an upset win over the Falcons, who are 1-8 over their last nine road games.

Teddy Bridgewater Week 4 Projection

Comp.	Att.	Yards	TD	INT
22	33	232	2	1

Derek Carr vs. Miami (in London)

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Carr was the only Week 1 rookie quarterback starter, taking the reins by winning the job over Matt Schaub in the preseason. He nearly led the Raiders to a late game-tying touchdown last week at Foxborough, but he threw a tipped-ball interception inside the red zone and remained winless over his first three starts.

Oakland’s scoring offense, at 12.3 points per game, is the lowest in the NFL, but it averages only 64.3 yards per game on the ground, 31st in the league, and needs to be better rushing the football against the league’s 20th-worst run defense and AFC East’s worst tackling team as 3.5-point underdogs at Wembley Stadium in London.

The matchup to watch in this game is Miami left end Cameron Wake against Raiders right tackle Khalif Barnes. Carr has only been sacked twice so far, but he has struggled when pressured, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), completing only 51.3 percent of his passes with a pair of interceptions in those situations.

PFF's Rick Drummund also noted that Carr has been pressured on 37.5 percent of his dropbacks.

Said Carr earlier this week:

"Cameron Wake is obviously a great player. You have to know…when you turn the film on, you’re like ‘oh my goodness, who is 91?’ It’s one of those guys. You’ve got to know where he’s at at all times."

Carr has plus arm strength and athleticism and has played better than the Raiders' record would indicate, completing 63 percent (68 of 108) of his passes for 588 yards. The Dolphins have gotten poor tackling from their secondary, which has not yet recorded an interception, so Carr will have the opportunity here to turn stats into points.

Derek Carr Week 4 Projection

Comp.	Att.	Yards	TD	INT
22	32	204	2	1