NFL Week 4 Picks: Overworked Eagles, Unimpressive Packers, Chiefs on HGTV
Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here's a warped and dented take on this weekend's games, featuring lots of complaints about being overworked and unsolicited fashion and decorating tips.
Note: All times listed are Eastern, odds are via Odds Shark and games are listed in the order you should record them.
Eagles at 49ers
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Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: 49ers -5.
There are no ridiculous opinions; only ridiculous football players who state their opinions.
Cary Williams and Anquan Boldin have very different personalities and reputations. Boldin is conscientious and dedicated, if a little overemotional (rather like his head coach). Williams is the kind of employee who complicates the sick leave policy for the whole company. Boldin may reach the Hall of Fame someday. Williams might as well get a "Dan Snyder's Next Epic Mistake" tattoo on his forearm.
What these two have in common, besides the fact that Williams will sometimes cover Boldin on Sunday, is a passion for making idiotic remarks at inappropriate times.
Boldin blasted the referees after the 49ers' loss to the Cardinals last week. "It's been obvious the last two weeks: the amount of calls that have gone against us and the amount of calls that we've gotten hasn't been close," Boldin told reporters. "The crap cost us another game." Strong words from a player whose head-butt of safety Tony Jefferson was clearly visible from three different camera angles.
The flagrant foul moved the 49ers from the Cardinals' six-yard line to the 21; Phil Dawson's field-goal attempt was blocked a few plays later. When blaming the referees, it's best to not have committed the game's costliest and most obvious penalty. Thirty-three-year-old Super Bowl heroes generally know this, but perhaps Jim Harbaugh's Classy Freddie Blassie routine on the sideline may make the 49ers think they're at a wrestling match, not a football game.
Williams, meanwhile, had many grievances to air after the Eagles beat the Redskins in an emotional back-and-forth game. Chip Kelly has been working poor Williams far too hard.
"I'm burnt out. Burnt out. I'm not the only guy that feels burnt out," Williams told reporters. "I'm just a guy that's man enough to stand up for players and just say that we're burnt out. My legs hurt. My legs were done in the fourth quarter. My legs were done in the third quarter. My legs were done before the game started."
Yep, those tired legs prevented the Eagles from coming back the last three weeks...oh, wait a minute, the Eagles are outscoring opponents 74-24 in second halves. Maybe they are always getting their second wind just in time; that's the kind of mad-genius conditioning plan only Kelly could devise.
Williams is famous for missing minicamp practices to purchase sconces for his new home, and for calling the Patriots a bunch of cheaters (Spygate, you know) before two days of joint practices. For Williams, "manning up" means publicizing all of his co-worker's petty gripes, then rushing off to Home Depot to browse the Hampton Bay fixtures collection, then home to read Internet message boards from 2008 while wondering which teammates will stand side-by-side with him on his "let's work less" platform. (None.)
Williams apologized to fans and the team on Wednesday. He said he spoke to "each man individually." He must have been pooped. Williams also indulged (subscription required) in some predictable media sideswiping because we dared to blow his remarks entirely into proportion. "I helped a lot of you guys in your papers and doing things like that."
Don't do us any more favors, Cary. We're busy enough. Try writing about crimes and cover-ups for three straight weeks and you'll wish you could run around a field for a few hours.
Boldin and Williams share this long intro because NFL players are best seen but not heard right now. We're still trying very hard just to keep liking them. This matchup is supposed to be a marquee game; Boldin and Williams risk turning it into a bratty blame game. They should know better. Well, Boldin should.
This game is a buzzy "upset special:" The 49ers are undisciplined, their running game and pass defense were overrated in the preseason, they have been exposed, Colin Kaepernick is fraudity-fraud-fraudzilla I knew it all along the mainstream media was too busy cuddling him I am not the only one who thinks this way! (Hush, Cary!)
The trouble with trendy 49ers bashing is that the Eagles offensive line currently consists of Jason Peters (great), Matt Tobin (novice coming off preseason injury), David Molk (got creamed by the Redskins last week), Dennis Kelly (not Chip's nephew, probably) and Todd Herremans (playing out of position). This is not a minor reshuffling; it's a crisis. The 49ers will have such an overwhelming advantage along their front seven that nothing else will matter, unless they go on a head-butting spree.
After the Eagles lose, Williams will surely have something to say. But hey, when the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.
Prediction: 49ers 23, Eagles 19.
Packers at Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers -1.
The biggest problem the Packers have right now is that there is nothing wrong with them. Bryan Bulaga returned at right tackle last week, sparing both viewers and Aaron Rodgers from another week of the Derek Sherrod Wet Sack of Flour Experience. Eddie Lacy is also back after an early season setback. Both the offensive and defensive units are relatively healthy and intact. And yet the Packers endured a toe-to-toe thumping from the Lions last week.
The only thing interesting about the Lions' game plan against the Packers was how bland it was. With practice squad mystery men Danny Gorrer and Mohammed Seisay playing major roles in the secondary, the Lions chose to play vanilla pass coverage and rush with their front four. Rodgers should have picked them apart, but instead, Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh stuffed the run and collapsed the pocket, while the Packers playmakers took the week off from making plays.
Meanwhile, the Lions offense moved consistently against the Packers defense without Megatron Miracles or funky tactics. If not for typical "Lions stuff"—interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals—the 19-7 final would have looked like more of a blowout.
Maybe the Packers just aren't that good.
The Packers are in real trouble if opponents can beat them with vanilla football. And no one plays vanilla football like the Bears. Their defensive front seven is finally gelling (Shea McClellin's injury is a minor setback), and the Bears have replaced two injured offensive linemen without catastrophe, something that would have been impossible under previous coaching regimes. (There are two words for anyone complaining about Michael Ola: Chilo Rachal.)
If the Lions can beat the Packers simply on fundamental execution, then the Bears can, too. And if both of those teams can, the Packers are in big trouble in their division, let alone the conference.
Teams used to need to find some fatal flaw to beat the Packers: a backup quarterback, a fourth-string running back, an unprepared blocker or read-option bewilderment. The Packers typically knew where the problem was. Now they appear to be the problem, and Cheeseheads may long for the days when salvation meant Matt Flynn or a coaching junket to Texas A&M.
Prediction: Bears 24, Packers 21.
Saints at Cowboys
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Saints -3.
The Cowboys defense played relatively well in the second half against the Rams. Oh sure, they were facing a third-string quarterback—who marched down the field on them several times in the first half. And they caught some breaks when Scott Wells forgot the difference between a shotgun snap and the regular kind, and Jared Cook performed a rhythmic gymnastics routine with an easy touchdown pass instead of catching it. But for the third straight week, the Cowboys defense did not embarrass itself.
You know what these guys need? Some patented Jerry Jones self-trolling passive-aggressive counter motivation. This week's target was cornerback Morris Claiborne, via Drew Davison of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram: "Is he what we had hoped for at this point when we drafted him with the sixth pick, gave up a pick to go up to the sixth pick to get him? No. But he's going to be a good player."
Usually, Tony Romo or Jason Garrett are the targets of Jones' public shaming. Claiborne was not as prepared as Jones' designated targets and briefly left the team. Claiborne must learn what the others have learned: If you are not the person Jones deluded himself into thinking you were, that's your fault. We are all just sources of bitter disappointment for him. Family dinners must be delightful.
Claiborne returned to the Cowboys, clarifying that he was not angry about getting benched in favor of Orlando Scandrick, but how it was presented to him (publicly and scornfully). Here's Jones discussing his secondary to Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News: "We've got a guy that’s playing lights out, played really good the other day, Scandrick," he told Machota. "So Scandrick or Claiborne, in certain situations, all three of them out there in a lot of situations. It's really something we'll have to see how they practice this week and we'll go from there."
Do the Cowboys even have coaches anymore? Jones escapees Rob Ryan and Sean Payton have problems of their own in the secondary, but at least they don't have a boss who makes things worse.
Prediction: Saints 34, Cowboys 27.
Bills at Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans -3.
One of these teams gets to be 3-1 on Monday morning, though last week’s losses proved that both are still one or two updates short of a working operating system. There are rights and responsibilities that come with the role of a surprise (fluke) 3-1 team. Here are some of the prizes at stake on Sunday:
Which retread defensive coordinator gets a profile boost? Either Romeo Crennel or Jim Schwartz could use a 3-1 start to catapult all the way from "New Scheme Paying Dividends" headlines to "Short List of Candidates to Replace Jim Harbaugh" buzz. Just try not to remember that Crennel and Schwartz replaced Wade Phillips and Mike Pettine, who were totally awesome.
Which former Clemson receiver is the next Calvin Johnson? Both Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins are incredibly talented, and the already-trendy Watkins will get more than his share of the credit if the Bills go 3-1. But Hopkins could leap all the way to MVP candidate.
Hopkins has caught 68 percent of the passes Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown to him this season (13-of-19, for 227 yards and two touchdowns), which is remarkable because many of those passes were deep and all were thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick. With the vertical leap of a spider cricket and retractable claws for hands, Hopkins adds about 10 points to his quarterback's completion percentage.
Watkins has not yet learned how to catch a pass over his head and four yards behind him, but will get plenty of practice this season.
Who will be more Fitzpatrick-like: EJ Manuel or Fitzpatrick? If Manuel delivers one of his scattershot performances, Bills fans will curse getting beaten by Fitzpatrick while calling for Kyle Orton. If Manuel plays well, Bills fans will embrace him the way they once embraced Fitzpatrick, knowing that regrets often arrive in a matter of weeks, not years.
There really is no positive scenario when you are a Bills fan, though in September there are at least occasional victories.
Prediction: Bills 24, Texans 13.
Titans at Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts -7.5.
It's easy for the mind to wander when analyzing the Titans, a team that cannot even pull off fascinatingly dreadful like the Jaguars or Buccaneers. But I watch Titans games so you don't have to. Here's a breakdown of What's-Its-Team's core problems.
• According to the injury report, Jake Locker has a bad wrist and is having trouble gripping the football; Charlie Whitehurst may start in his place. Wait...was that an injury report or a scouting report?
• Cornerback Blidi Wreh-Wilson has committed six penalties already, four of them last week. It's like having Cortland Finnegan back, but without the occasional good play.
• The Titans have committed seven "roughness" fouls already. Attention-seeking behavior, perhaps?
• The run defense consists of 10 guys standing around watching to see if Jurrell Casey can beat a triple team.
What is Ken Whisenhunt doing about all this? Why, he is worrying about rookie Bishop Sankey, whose footwork is not quite correct when taking handoffs. "There were a couple of handoffs where he's not doing it the right way and it almost was a fumble," Whisenhunt told reporters during his Monday press conference after Sankey led the Titans with 70 yards from scrimmage against the Bengals. "When he gets those things correct, then he'll have the opportunity to get more playing time."
So Locker is bouncing footballs off defenders' chests, Whitehurst is warming up and Wreh-Wilson leaves palm prints all over his receivers, but Whisenhunt is concentrating on his best running back's feet before he gets the ball? Sounds like even coach's mind drifts when watching the Titans.
Prediction: Colts 27, Titans 10.
Panthers at Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens -3.
With his Braveheart playing style and Mary Tyler Moore circa 1966 wardrobe, Cam Newton has become a study in contrasts. Newton strives to draw attention to his menswear line (mission accomplished, sort of) and away from the fact that the Panthers' offensive roster has been gutted, all the while daring you to question his manhood after bouncing back from seven sacks in two starts with still-healing ribs, as well as seven months of mass-media sensitivity training.
Those Capri pants and loafers are a shield; all that is missing is a cape: When heading into the arena to face thousands of pounds of charging anger all alone, it makes sense to dress like a matador.
Mike Tolbert will be out for a month with a hairline fracture in his left ankle. Jonathan Stewart has suffered his annual knee injury. DeAngelo Williams is trying to come back from a pulled hamstring. Third-stringer Fozzy Whittaker is also hurt. As has been well-documented, all of the Panthers' receivers left as free agents, and most of last year's offensive line retired.
So if Newton can find a way to beat the Ravens with no backs, receivers or blockers, he can dress like Little Bo Peep in the postgame presser if he wants to. Clothes don't make the man, and one man does not make a team: Whatever the cut and color, the one Newton wardrobe item the Panthers must carry is his flak jacket.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Panthers 16.
Lions at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even.
The Lions are playing smarter football this year.
Stephen Tulloch blew out an ACL while celebrating a sack. Joseph Fauria injured himself in a household accident. Nate Freese missed all four of his field goals from beyond 40 yards and had to be replaced by Eagles castoff Alex Henery. The Lions are committing sloppy penalties, like illegal shifts and having 12 defenders on the field. Matthew Stafford threw an up-for-grabs interception in Week 3 against the Packers, and he threw so many sidearm passes that play-by-play announcer Kevin Burkhardt referred to him as Kent Tekulve at one point.
The Lions are playing smarter football this year?
Nate Burleson broke his arm while bringing home pizza last year. David Akers missed a pair of field goals shorter than 40 yards but kept his job all season. The Lions committed 10 unnecessary roughness penalties last year but have committed zero this year. Stafford would have thrown 19 interceptions in his final eight games last year if defenders did not drop six of them. Stafford was so Johnson-centric and Tekulve-like that Johnson could have changed his nickname from Megatron to Ed Ott.
So yes, the Lions are playing smarter football this year. But everything is relative! In related news, Geno Smith is a much sharper quarterback than he was last year.
Prediction: Lions 30, Jets 20.
Buccaneers at Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers -8.
The Buccaneers win the toss and elect to receive.
Touchback. Handoff up the middle to Doug Martin, no gain. Short Mike Glennon pass, incomplete. Deep Mike Glennon pass, incomplete. Punt.
Steelers in Power-I formation, Buccaneers in Cover-2 shell. Handoff to Le'Veon Bell for nine yards. Steelers in three-tight-end formation with backup tackle Joe Adams as the extra tight end, Buccaneers in Cover-2 shell. Handoff to LeGarrette Blount for nine yards. Steelers in empty-backfield set, Buccaneers showing two linebackers blitzing, but also Cover-2 shell. Deep touchdown to Antonio Brown.
Touchback. Glennon flat pass to Brandon Myers for four yards. Handoff to Bobby Rainey, fumble. Recovered by James Harrison. Game stops for 15-minute Harrison celebration. Ben Roethlisberger throws touchdown to Heath Miller, running between two deep safeties.
Get well soon, Jeff Tedford. Don't hurry back, Josh McCown.
Prediction: Steelers 34, Buccaneers 16.
Dolphins at Raiders (London)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins -3.5.
Watching the Raiders offense is like reading recipe tips from the Great Depression Hobo Cookbook. Don't have any beef for beef stew? Try muskrat—you can't tell the difference! Not enough flour for your bread? Extend that dough with a little sand!
Don't have a quarterback? Stick Derek Carr out there! Rod Streeter hurt? Andre Holmes can run those five-yard out-routes! No viable running game? Darren McFadden is averaging 3.3 yards per carry for the third-straight year—as delicious and nutritious as shoe leather soup!
At least those old-timey boxcar hobos had unity. (Actually, they would stab each other for a flask full of rye whiskey and turpentine, but play along). Dolphins defenders are Cary Williams-ing at the coaching staff, while Joe Philbin is sending Jerry Jones-style mixed messages about Ryan Tannehill, who does not throw droppable passes like Matt Moore.
But guys, you made anti-bullying tee-shirts over the summer! What happened to all those good vibes?
Teams fly first class to these London games, but the NFL keeps sending teams that would be better off arriving by tramp steamer.
Prediction: Raiders 20, Dolphins 17.
Jaguars at Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers -13.5.
Here is a fun fact dug up by Vince Verhei over at Football Outsiders: The Jaguars pass defense is incredibly lopsided. The Jaguars held Nick Foles to just 32 passing yards when throwing to the left in the season opener. Kirk Cousins was just 5-of-10 for 40 yards when throwing to his left in the Redskins game. Andrew Luck was 5-of-10 for 30 yards throwing to his left last week.
Luck was 17-of-20 for 221 yards throwing to his right last week and a perfect 9-of-9 over the middle; the other quarterbacks had similar splits. So the Jaguars are the 1985 Bears on precisely one-third of the field but go back to being the Jaguars on the other two-thirds.
Will the Jaguars manage to smear their left side awesomeness across the whole field, like cream cheese across the bagel? Are teams avoiding right cornerback Alan Ball, picking on left cornerback Dwayne Gratz, or simply throwing to the side of the field where the tunnel to their locker room is located so they can get home faster? None of it will matter when the Chargers unveil this formation on Sunday:
Some mention should be made of the fact that Blake Bortles is making his starting debut. Uh, Blake Bortles is making his starting debut.
Prediction: Chargers 38, Jaguars 21.
Falcons at Vikings
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Falcons -3.
It's time for the longstanding NFL tradition of saying overenthusiastic things about a rookie quarterback! Or, perhaps, subverting and deconstructing the NFL tradition of saying overenthusiastic things about a rookie quarterback. It is hard to tell who is doing which in John Shipley's midweek St. Paul Pioneer Press article.
"I don't think Teddy can not do anything that Matt did," Mike Zimmer says. So...what can't Teddy not do that Matt Cassel couldn't not do, coach? "I think Teddy can do a few more things than Matt could do, at some point in time."
Some future Bridgewater could represent an improvement on some past Cassel. Zimmer is confident of it.
"Full confidence," center John Sullivan says. "We should win every game we play with him at quarterback." Is Sullivan setting lofty goals, messing with our expectations or too busy trying to sort through Zimmer's double-negatives to say anything plausible?
The most glowing Bridgewater praise in Shipley's article comes from Christian Ponder, who comes across as a little too thrilled to be watching Bridgewater instead of playing. Jarius Wright appears at the end to reassure fans that Bridgewater and Matt Asiata will be fine together, because slot receiver Wright blocked for both of them when they played together on the second unit. Yep, the whole second unit has been reunited as the starting lineup. What's not to be confident about?
Bridgewater showed some promise against the Saints and is a solid-enough prospect, but he is not going to outduel Matt Ryan in his first start with Asiata in the backfield and Kyle Rudolph hurt. These "full confidence" remarks are standard issue, give or take a grammatical shipwreck. It would be shocking for a writer to find anyone mouthy or unprofessional enough to express a lack of confidence in a new quarterback. After all, Cary Williams does not play for the Vikings.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Vikings 20.
Patriots at Chiefs
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Patriots -3.
Photos of Chiefs owner Clark Hunt’s Xanadu-within-Arrowhead—a massive pleasure palace of a luxury suite complete with a fireplace and Romanesque statues—have gone viral, raising several questions around the Internet. Few of those questions involve how Hunt spends his money; living close to work is convenient and eco-friendly, after all, and if a massive mansion-within-stadium vanity product is the most extravagant indulgence by the billionaire son of a billionaire's son, society should take that as a win.
No one in the photos is barbecuing endangered species or forcing virgins to cry into martini glasses for midday cocktails, is what I'm saying.
No, the questions center upon Hunt's decorating sense, which comes straight from Bed, Bath and Boy Emperor. Roman busts? Candelabras above ornate hearths? Is Hunt the Squire of Gothos?
Also, Hunt's El Dorado has terrible sightlines of the playing field, which was a major selling point on the design during the Todd Haley era.
Most puzzling is a stained-glass devotional depicting Chiefs No. 11 getting tackled by Cardinals No. 78. The Chiefs have only played the Cardinals 11 times in history. None of the games appears to have been historically significant. There have not been many No. 11s of note in Chiefs history. Alex Smith is No. 11, but he never played the Cardinals.
I have two theories about the stained glass image: 1) It is supposed to depict Vikings quarterback Joe Kapp (11) being sacked by Chiefs linebacker Bobby Bell (78) in Super Bowl IV, but the artist got the paint-by-numbers wrong; or 2) This is some serious second-level The Da Vinci Code stuff, and 1178 is the year the Templar Knights gave some heavy-duty biblical goodies to the Hunt family, which Clark will soon have to turn the whole shebang over to Justin Houston to fit him under the salary cap.
Anyway, if you want to fret about the Patriots passing attack, I wrote about that on Thursday. If you want a bad view of the game, hang out at Hunt's crib, but be forewarned: If the Patriots grind out a victory with defense, screen passes and pixie dust, the gang at Hunt's San Simeon may grow bored with the game and start assembling jigsaw puzzles.
Prediction: Patriots 19, Chiefs 16.
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @MikeTanier.
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