NFL Picks Week 4: Full Predictions, Outlook on Struggling Super Bowl Contenders

Show me an NFL fan who knows which two teams will compete in the Super Bowl, and I'll show you an overconfident liar.

Unless that person arrived with that message on a hoverboard. In that case, Marty McFly could be helping you win the jackpot. That scenario seems just as likely as successfully figuring out the NFL at this point.

Sure, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos are both strong choices to represent their respective conferences again, but both squads are also vulnerable. Focusing exclusively on Week 4, all the top teams in action have an immense amount to prove.

Last year's two representatives will sit out the week with an early bye. The other two teams with the weekend off are the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals, two of three remaining undefeated squads.

That leaves three of this era's best franchises forced to fend off a third defeat in four games. If they lose this week, then we'll just toss out the same platitudes about them needing to win next week, but it'd be better for them to subside the panicking now.

Home	Away	Prediction
Giants	Washington (-3)	24-17 NYG
Packers (-1)	Bears	34-30 GB
Bills	Texans (-3)	17-16 HOU
Titans	Colts (-9)	30-23 IND
Panthers	Ravens (-3)	15-9 CAR
Lions	Jets (Even)	28-13 DET
Buccaneers	Steelers (-9)	27-16 PIT
Dolphins (-3.5)	Raiders	20-10 MIA
Jaguars	Chargers (14)	37-14 SD
Eagles	49ers (-4.5)	27-24 SF
Falcons (-3)	Vikings	35-17 ATL
Saints (-3)	Cowboys	38-24 NO
Chiefs	Patriots (-3)	17-13 NE

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

The Green Bay Packers should have envisioned starting 0-1 after drawing the Seattle Seahawks on the road to begin the season, but mustering seven points against the Detroit Lions is a tougher pill to swallow.

Green Bay is now 1-2 after amassing just 223 total offensive yards against its NFC North foe. This is familiar territory for a team that has started the last two seasons 1-2, earning a playoff bid each time. They'll have to quickly recuperate to avoid another stinging division defeat on Sunday. To do so, Eddie Lacy must break out of his September funk.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Look Aaron Rodgers' way all you want, but he's Aaron freaking Rodgers. It's Lacy who has produced 113 yards on 36 carries, giving him a mediocre 3.1 yards per carry. He exacerbated his woes against the Lions, fumbling and getting tackled in his own end zone for a safety.

Week	Opponent	Opponent's Rank vs. Run	Carries	YDs	YPC
1	at Seattle Seahawks	5 (217 YDs allowed)	12	34	2.8
2	New York Jets	1 (166 YDs allowed	13	43	3.3
3	at Detroit Lions	2 (191 YDs allowed)	11	36	3.3

But cut the second-year back some slack; he's faced three of four defenses tied for an NFL-best 2.8 rushing yards per carry allowed. Now he gets the Chicago Bears, who fare much worse at 5.0 yards surrendered per run. 

He acknowledged his room for improvement to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Tyler Dunne.

"I could do better," Lacy said. "Everybody could do better. You have to continue to improve. But after running the ball the way that I did the past few games, you definitely get frustrated a bit."

The offense will click, but that hardly guarantees victory. The defense must answer the call against Marc Trestman's loaded offense. Both passing defenses rank in the top 10, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA, but Chicago's battered secondary will shrivel against Rodgers after facing three subpar passing attacks.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are the only team defending a perfect record during Week 4, and they can make a major statement by successfully retaining their unblemished mark.

While they've erased three early deficits in as many games, the San Francisco 49ers have been outscored 38-3 during their last two second halves. Believe it or not, they lost both times. ESPN Stats & Info's Zach Rodgers examined each side's inconsistent play throughout the full game.

"

The 49ers lead the league in first-half point differential (+43), but are being outscored by 49 points in the second half, the worst mark in the league. 

On the other side, the Eagles have been outscored by 27 points in the first half, tied with the Raiders and Jaguars for fourth-worst in the league. 

But after halftime, the Eagles boast the league’s best point differential (+50). 

"

Before labeling Colin Kaepernick as a choke artist and bowing down to Nick Foles as a clutch hero, remember that three games is a small sample size, especially when cutting the data in half. It's more randomness than anything, so don't expect the same outcome when the two squads collide.

Just because San Francisco's defeats came in September, however, doesn't mean they don't hurt. Per FiveThirtyEight's Neil Payne's calculations, the 49ers' playoff probability plummeted to 40 percent. None of their units rank in DVOA's top 10. There's reason for concern, but the same can be said about everyone else.

Even during their torrid start, the Eagles have allowed 386.0 yards per game, with Chad Henne and Kirk Cousins inflicting most of that damage. This is the perfect meeting to establish some normalcy, as the 49ers will inch closer to the top with a win, while Philadelphia will slip with an exposing loss.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Even at 2-1, the New England Patriots have displayed more flaws than any of the premier contenders.

After losing to the Miami Dolphins, they avoided delving further down the loss column by proxy of facing the Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders, and the victory over Oakland was way closer than it should have been.

New England's rushing game accumulated 2.6 yards per carry against a rushing defense that ranked last heading into the Week 3 slate. After a sluggish start, Tom Brady salvaged a lost afternoon by ending with 234 yards and a touchdown. Still, the Golden Boy is having an abysmal September, especially for his gaudy standards.

Look at how some of his metrics compare with the rest of the league's starting quarterbacks.

Category	Number	NFL Rank
CMP %	58.8	27
YDs/ATT	5.54	30
QB Rating	82.9	23
DVOA	-12.5%	25

It's the defense, not Brady, which must lead the Pats to victory on Monday night. They rank No. 1 in DVOA, while the Kansas City Chiefs lag far behind at No. 28. After thriving on that end of the field last season, a lackluster preventative unit regressing to the mean will cost the Chiefs.

While Kansas City led the league with 15 fumble recoveries last season, it hasn't scooped up a single loose ball in 2014. It should come as no surprise to see a fluky category fluctuate, as being in the right place at the right time to capture the ball on a fortuitous bounce is not a sustainable skill.

Neither team is as good as last season, and the Patriots will find that out the hard way when they encounter the Cincinnati Bengals next weekend. For now, they'll slither by with another victory predicated on defense.