NFL Picks Week 4: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

One of the traps everyone falls into trying to analyze the NFL is the burden of time. Since each team plays only once a week, the focus is always on "What have you done for me lately?" instead of looking at the bigger picture. 

There is value in looking at what a team did in its most recent game, but that tends to cloud how good or bad a team really is. All you have to do is look at weekly predictions around the Internet to see this phenomenon in action. 

With Week 4 set to begin Thursday night with the New York Giants traveling to Washington in an NFC East showdown, we've got the latest odds and a look at what experts are saying about the weekend's biggest matchups. 

Matchup	Prediction
New York Giants at Washington (-3.5)	Washington, 27-17
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)	Ravens, 24-20
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Pick 'Em)	Packers, 27-24
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)	Bills, 23-17
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-8.5)	Colts, 28-20
Detroit Lions (-1) at New York Jets	Lions, 24-21
Miami Dolphins (-4) at Oakland Raiders	Dolphins, 27-23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)	Steelers, 31-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-14)	Chargers, 34-10
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Minnesota Vikings	Falcons, 28-21
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5)	Eagles, 27-23
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys	Saints, 34-27
New England Patriots (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs	Patriots, 23-20

Expert Predictions

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

One of the NFL's oldest rivalries gets renewed this weekend in a critical NFC North showdown. The Green Bay Packers haven't looked right all season. Even in their win over the New York Jets two weeks ago, Aaron Rodgers had to lead a comeback down 21-3, and an errant timeout from the Jets late in the game negated a touchdown. 

Despite being regarded as the best quarterback in the NFL, Rodgers has had his own problems this season. Kevin Seifert of ESPN noted the former MVP hasn't been as pinpoint accurate as we are accustomed to seeing:

After an ugly loss against Buffalo, the Chicago Bears have found their path to victory this season by creating turnovers on defense and using the size of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett to score points. 

While these two teams seem to be trending in opposite directions, this game has upset written all over it. We are starting settle in on Jay Cutler playing mistake-free football, which is always dangerous, and the Bears defense is so reliant on the turnover to be successful (seven in the last two games) that you wonder what will happen when those aren't there. 

John Breech of CBS Sports points out that since Rodgers took over at quarterback in 2008 that he doesn't lose this game:

"

Here's a list of how many times the Packers have started 1-3 since Aaron Rodgers became the starting quarterback in 2008: zero. Here's a list of how many times the Packers have lost in Chicago over the past three years: zero. I don't want to keep making lists because I'm not BuzzFeed, but I think you get the point here.

"

If the Bears want to take control of the NFC North, they have to beat the Packers with Rodgers under center. He got hurt after throwing two passes in Chicago's Week 9 win last year, then we saw what he did in Week 17. 

The Packers offense hasn't clicked this season. Eddie Lacy has been missing in action with 113 yards on 36 carries, but that was against Seattle, New York and Detroit defensive lines. If he can't do anything against Chicago's 26th-ranked run defense, there's a bigger problem. 

Green Bay's run defense has been worse than Chicago's, currently 30th in the NFL. That unit has to step up against a bad offensive line. Something has to give, and history says the Packers will come out on top. 

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

Matt York/Associated Press

If you combined what San Francisco does in the first half with Philadelphia's second-half showings, you'd have the best team in football. The 49ers have outscored their opponents 59-16 in the first two quarters, while the Eagles have put up 74 points after the intermission. 

Philadelphia's been able to keep games close enough in the first half to parlay those second-half outbursts into a 3-0 record. San Francisco hasn't been nearly as fortunate, being outscored 52-3 after the break to start 1-2. 

The interesting part of San Francisco's start is it hasn't been as bad, from a scoring perspective, as last year's 1-2 start. If you recall, the 49ers lost back-to-back games against Seattle and Indianapolis in 2013 by a combined score of 56-10, yet no one was hitting the panic button at the time. 

There are parallels between the two starts, as well. Frank Gore wasn't happy with the number of touches he was getting, according to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee. In the loss to Indianapolis last year, Gore did have 82 yards but just 11 carries. 

The difference between the starts is the 49ers don't have NaVorro Bowman right now and will be without Aldon Smith for six more games. Even though Smith missed five games last year, the pass-rush was still a factor. This year, if you take away Justin Smith, the 49ers have one sack. 

Chip Kelly and Jim Harbaugh know each other well from their time in what used to be known as the Pac-10. This game figures to be a little different than the matchups between Stanford and Oregon, based on these numbers from Mike Sielski of The Philadelphia Inquirer:

Despite all the turmoil in San Francisco thus far, this has all the makings of a trap game for the Eagles and a reminder why the 49ers were considered a Super Bowl contender before the season. It's also an early-season must-win spot for Harbaugh's team because they can't afford to fall further behind Arizona and Seattle. 

Here's what Pete Prisco of CBS Sports had to say about why he's picking the 49ers to end Philadelphia's undefeated season:

"This is one of the have-to games for the 49ers," Prisco wrote. "They can't go to 1-3. They get a break facing an Eagles team that is really banged up on the offensive line. The Eagles defense isn't great, either. The 49ers get back on track."

It was tempting to pick the 49ers in this game because they haven't been terrible. They just can't get out of their own way in the second half, whether it's poor play-calling on offense or stupid penalties on either side of the ball. 

Until we see those issues get resolved, you can't bet on the 49ers right now. 

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

The last time the New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys met on a Sunday night, it was November 10, 2013, in the Superdome. The Saints set an NFL record with 40 first downs en route to putting up 49 points and 625 total yards. 

While no one is expecting a defensive struggle this time around, especially with both teams averaging about 26 points per game, it would be surprising if this was a one-sided affair. 

The Cowboys have been a pleasant surprise this season. Taking away Tony Romo's disastrous first half against San Francisco in the season opener, this has been a fairly clean start for the offense. DeMarco Murray has been incredible with 385 yards and three rushing touchdowns through three games. 

Last week against St. Louis was a reminder that you can attack Dallas' defense. Austin Davis threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns, but credit the Dallas defense for getting two interceptions late, including a pick-six from Bruce Carter, to seal a 34-31 win. 

Oh by the way, the Cowboys were down 21-0 midway through the second quarter. 

The Saints, like the Packers and 49ers, haven't looked right this season. They still can't win on the road and looked sluggish in a 20-9 win against an undermanned Minnesota team in Week 3. 

If you are looking for a silver lining this week for New Orleans, Pro Football Talk on NBC Sports points out that Jimmy Graham is poised for a big game against Dallas' defense:

If Sean Payton's team wants to be a Super Bowl contender, they have to win on the road. That was their Achilles' heel last year, going 3-5 in the regular season, and they're 0-2 to start this year. 

Vinnie Iyer of SportingNews.com is a believer in New Orleans' ability to put those road woes in the rear-view mirror against Dallas:

"

That also meant the Cowboys have dropped eight of the team’s past nine meetings. Last season was Rob Ryan’s revenge as defensive coordinator. This season, Ryan’s Saints defense hasn’t been so hot on the back end and still has trouble vs. the run. Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray will facilitate Tony Romo keeping Dallas in the game for four quarters. Drew Brees, who hails from down the road in Austin, tends to have some big games vs. Big D, and the Cowboys will be lost trying to stop either Jimmy Graham or Brandin Cooks.

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Neither team does much on defense, but the Saints have been able to stop the run with some success. Of course, that's come at the expense of their 29th-ranked pass defense. That actually helps them, though, because it will give the Cowboys a false sense of security throwing the ball and using Murray less. 

Even though Romo had his best game of the year last week against St. Louis, completing 18-of-23 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns, he still threw a bad interception that was returned for a touchdown. 

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