Week 4 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

We are three weeks into the NFL season, but things don’t seem that much clearer for bettors.

Sure, the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos still look the part after a dramatic Super Bowl rematch, but we live in a world where the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills have looked better than the Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints.

The question now becomes which trends emerge in Week 4 as the contenders try to give themselves some early breathing room. With that in mind, here is a look at some predictions based on the spreads for every game.

*Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of Wednesday evening.

Away Team	Home Team	Spread	Prediction (against spread)
New York Giants	Washington Redskins	WAS -3.5	Washington
Carolina Panthers	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -3	Baltimore
Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears	GB -1	Chicago
Buffalo Bills	Houston Texans	HOU -3	Houston
Tennessee Titans	Indianapolis Colts	IND -8.5	Indianapolis
Detroit Lions	New York Jets	EVEN	Detroit
Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders (game in London)	MIA -4	Miami
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -9	Pittsburgh
Jacksonville Jaguars	San Diego Chargers	SD -14	San Diego
Atlanta Falcons	Minnesota Vikings	ATL -3	Atlanta
Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	SF -5	Philadelphia
New Orleans Saints	Dallas Cowboys	NO -3	New Orleans
New England Patriots	Kansas City Chiefs	NE -3	Kansas City

Close Calls

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Anytime the Green Bay Packers play the Chicago Bears, it is a cliche “throw out the records” type of game.

Unfortunately, a major theme to this one is injuries for both sides. Chicago lost Brandon Marshall for an extended amount of time Monday against the New York Jets, and he hasn’t been 100 percent since Week 1. The Bears will also be without star cornerback Charles Tillman for the rest of the year and saw safeties drop left and right Monday.

Chris Conte and Ryan Mundy may both play Sunday, but the Bears could really use a secondary close to full strength against Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Throw in injuries to starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson and linebacker Shea McClellin, and the hits are starting to add up. 

The most troublesome injury spot for the Packers is offensive line. Both Don Barclay and Bryan Bulaga are hurting on a unit that already has rookie Corey Linsley playing a major role. The offense only scored seven points against Detroit, largely because Rodgers was consistently pressured and no running lanes opened up for Eddie Lacy (who has been a disappointment for the Packers and fantasy owners in the early going).

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Look for Jared Allen and Willie Young to generate a solid pass rush for the Bears behind a raucous Soldier Field crowd against the patchwork Green Bay line.

An early lead may not mean anything either, as NFL on ESPN pointed out, which makes betting in this one particularly difficult:

The thought here is the offensive weapons of the Bears will ultimately prove to be too much for a Green Bay defense that struggled mightily against the Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets. What’s more, the Packers only allowed a misleading 19 points to the Lions, but Detroit finished with 353 total yards to Green Bay’s 223 and was particularly efficient on third downs at 11-of-18.

Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffery (who finally looked relatively healthy Monday), Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett (who has arguably been Chicago’s top weapon thus far) and Marshall will get the Bears on the board early and often.

That will force Rodgers to throw the ball, which will open the door for the Chicago pass rush against the susceptible Green Bay offensive line. 

Prediction: Bears 31, Packers 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

This game may not be a close call in terms of who will win, but 14 points is a huge spread for any NFL contest.

The San Diego Chargers are arguably the hottest team in the league even if they have that Week 1 loss. They knocked off the defending champion Seattle Seahawks by directly attacking the “Legion of Boom” through the air and then traveled across the country and handed the Buffalo Bills their first loss of the season.

Philip Rivers has been excellent.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Still, we are picking the Chargers largely because Blake Bortles won’t quite be ready to thrive just yet, at least with the surrounding talent on the Jaguars. He talked about preparation, via Eric D. Williams of ESPN.com:

"

My preparation is the same. I’ve been pretty lucky to be around Chad, who’s been around for a while, watch film, prepare and see how he game plans. So that will be similar. But I think it will be a huge help to get a full week of reps (with the starters) in preparation to go on Sunday.

"

Bortles did look somewhat impressive Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts and threw for two touchdowns (although he had two interceptions as well), but that came in a game that was already decided. San Diego’s defense will certainly have some new looks for the rookie quarterback.

Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that the Chargers won’t really have to respect a running game that is spearheaded by Toby Gerhart.

Gerhart only has 82 yards on the ground in three games and has struggled to live up to some preseason hype. The offensive line has failed to open up any running lanes, which is also an indictment on how it will be able to protect Bortles.

The Chargers have momentum on their side after two impressive wins and will look to attack Bortles without worrying too much about the run. This one may not be close by halftime. 

Prediction: Chargers 35, Jaguars 17

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