NFL Predictions Week 4: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

It's hard to believe, but we've reached the last NFL weekend of September.

The first month of the 2014 brought with it plenty of surprises. The Arizona Cardinals exploded out of the gate, and compliments of a Week 4 bye, the Redbirds are guaranteed an undefeated September.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the other hand, came out of the gate and then exploded, and many people's favorite playoff dark horse looks ready for the glue factory.

Such is life in the NFL, where things very rarely happen according to the script.

That didn't stop our intrepid group of writers from trying to pen one, though, so with EraserMates in hand the NFL National and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report gathered to make some predictions for the upcoming week's games.

Upset of the Week

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs (+3) over New England Patriots (4 votes)

As has been the case every week with the upset pick, the selections from our panel ran the gamut. Eight of the week's 13 games got at least one vote.

One thing's for sure. After twice getting burned by the Buccaneers (including last week's immolation in Atlanta) no one's going to be picking Tampa any time soon.

This week's selection, however, will probably turn some heads nonetheless.

It really shouldn't though. It's a game that fits many of the criteria for the classic upset.

You have the home underdog, playing in front of what should be a rabid prime-time crowd.

You have a New England Patriots team that, while 2-1, has hardly looked unbeatable so far this season. The Pats rank 26th in the NFL in offense, and while the defense ranks inside the top five they've also faced three of the NFL's most inept offensive teams.

On the other hand, over the past two games Sean Keeler of Fox Sports Kansas City thinks the Chiefs have found a recipe for continued success, and it lies with getting back to what they do best:

"

More often than not, the Chiefs ran out of a base of two tight ends in Miami -- and, occasionally, just for the hell of it, three. When 6-foot-6 Jeff Linkenbach came into the game, they would even line up with three tackles up front, pretty little elephants all in a row.

The end result: 41 carries, 174 rushing yards and a 34-15 victory at a place the franchise hadn't won since 2005.

Combine that with 133 on the ground in Week 2's 24-17 near-miss at Denver, and it adds up to the same thing: The Chiefs look like the Chiefs again -- or rather, they look like a bunch that won't run away (no pun intended) from their strength, a bunch with an identity, mission and mantra.

"

That could portend problems for a Patriots team that's been vulnerable up the gut on defense and present a chance for the Chiefs to get things back on track after a rough start to the year.

Others receiving votes: Oakland Raiders (+4) over Miami Dolphins (3 votes), New York Giants (+4) over Washington Redskins (2 votes), Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5) over San Francisco 49ers (2 votes), New York Jets (Even) over Detroit Lions (1 vote), Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) over New Orleans Saints (1 vote), Carolina Panthers (+3) over Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Houston Texans (-3) over Buffalo Bills (1 vote)

Blowout of the Week

Chris Covatta/Associated Press

Winner: San Diego Chargers over Jacksonville Jaguars (13 votes)

Let's see, what can you say about the 2014 Jacksonville Jaguars?

The Jaguars have been outscored by a margin of 119-44. Since halftime of Week 1, that margin is a staggering 119-27.

The Jaguars rank 31st in the NFL in both total offense and defense. 

Through three games, the Jaguars have allowed 17 sacks. That's a full half-dozen more than the next closest team.

As Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated wrote, "There was a lot of optimism swirling around Jacksonville this offseason, with head coach Gus Bradley and GM David Caldwell seemingly ready to steer the ship in the right direction. It might be time to reevaluate the supposed progress."

And this week that Jaguars team has to travel cross-country to face a San Diego team that beat the Seattle Seahawks two weeks ago.

Oh well. At least Blake Bortles is starting.

Others receiving votes: Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee Titans (1 vote), New Orleans Saints over Dallas Cowboys (1 vote)

Biggest Mismatch

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Winner: Calvin Johnson vs. New York Jets secondary (8 votes)

Last October, in a game against the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson reeled in 14 catches for an astounding 329 yards. After the game, all Dallas cornerback Brandon Carr could say while speaking with The Associated Press (via NFL.com) was, "He had his way, and we couldn't find a way to keep him from rolling."

Well, if ever there was a matchup where Johnson had a shot at bettering those gaudy numbers, it's against the New York Jets on Sunday.

Make no mistake, the Jets cornerbacks are bad. Two weeks ago Jordy Nelson of the Green Bay Packers lit them up for over 200 yards. The team had no answer at all for Chicago's Alshon Jeffery last Monday night.

Now, with Johnson set to face a team that has lousy corners and yet plays single coverage anyway, the best wideout in the NFL told Dom Cosentino of NJ.com he's "licking his chops."

"No doubt," Johnson said. "You definitely look forward to the challenge of getting single coverage high out there."

He's looking forward to it.

Bet the same can't be said for those cornerbacks.

Others receiving votes: Jimmy Graham vs. Dallas Cowboys linebackers (3 votes), Philip Rivers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars defense (3 votes), Ben Roethlisberger vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense (1 vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Winner: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (4 votes)

There hasn't been much good news in the Twin Cities this fall.

In addition to the child abuse charges that led to running back Adrian Peterson's banishment from the team, the Minnesota Vikings have been hit hard by injuries on both sides of the ball.

Well, in the opinion of this panel, some sunshine is headed to the Great White North this week in the form of a strong first career start from rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

With Matt Cassel headed to injured reserve with a broken foot, the future is now in Minnesota. Bridgewater will make the first start of his NFL career Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.

The first-round pick from Louisville told The Associated Press (via Fox News) that he's ready for the spotlight:

"

It's no pressure on me and it's not all about me. It takes a team effort to win football games and we have 11 guys on defense who are going to play their tails off. We have 11 guys on special teams and 10 other guys on the offensive side of the ball that are going to be out there competing for one another. There's no pressure for me to have to fill the needs or anything. ... It's just all about the team.

"

That's all well and good, but there's no denying that Bridgewater is the center of attention this week. He was decent (albeit not great) in relief of Cassel last week, but this week, the prep is all about him. 

Our voters expect him to shine against an Atlanta Falcons defense that isn't nearly as good as the Buccaneers made them look a week ago.

Others receiving votes: EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (3 votes), Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (3 votes), Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes), Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote), Eli Manning, New York Giants (1 vote), Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote)

Sleeper RB Performance

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Winner: Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (4 votes)

In some respects, it might not be entirely fair to call Ahmad Bradshaw a "sleeper."

After all, it appears even the Indianapolis Colts are waking up to the fact that Bradshaw is the best running back on the roster.

Over the first three games of the season, Bradshaw has carried the ball 25 times for 150 yards, or an even six yards a pop.

Trent Richardson, on the other hand, has gained all of six more yards on the ground—with 16 more carries.

Bradshaw ranks third among running backs at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) through Week 3. Richardson is 46th of 52 qualifiers.

I wrote back on Sept. 4 that if the Colts want to run the ball this year, Bradshaw was the player they needed to turn to. The Colts have, at least to an extent, as it's a full-blown committee attack in Indy now.

And that bodes well for Bradshaw, heading into a matchup with a reeling Tennessee Titans team allowing over 130 yards a game on the ground this year.

Others receiving votes: Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore Ravens (3 votes), Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs (2 votes), Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers (2 votes), Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote), James Starks, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote)

Sleeper WR Performance

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Winner: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (4 votes)

Six times in seven years from 2006 to 2012, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marques Colston topped 1,000 receiving yards. He was Drew Brees' top target in the NFL's most prolific passing game.

However, with the emergence of tight end Jimmy Graham, Colston's role in the offense began to diminish. The 31-year-old's 943 yards in 2013 were his least since 2008, and he has only seven grabs for 135 yards so far in 2014.

Head coach Sean Payton told ESPN's Mike Triplett that Colston remains the consummate pro, despite a decrease in targets:

"

I think he’s been here long enough and he’s had weeks where he’s seen the touches heavy and he’s had weeks where the touches have been low. I think that’s what makes him pretty special. I’d say he's a very unselfish player. Obviously he wants to be involved and have those opportunities, but he’s someone that always cared first about winning. And he understands the offense and how sometimes balls would come opposite of where he’s at.

"

Colston did find the end zone in last week's win over Minnesota, and this week sets up well for a big game from him.

Despite games against two of the NFL's more anemic offenses in the St. Louis Rams and Tennessee Titans, the Cowboys still rank in the bottom half of the league against the pass this year.

The Dallas secondary is short on talent, which is going to leave it long on problems against a loaded New Orleans passing attack.

That should mean lots of single coverage for Colston, and our panelists foresee a big game ahead. 

Others receiving votes: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (3 votes), Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens (2 votes), Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote), Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote), Justin Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints (1 vote)

Sleeper TE Performance

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Winner: Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (4 votes)

The 2013 campaign was essentially a lost season for tight end Heath Miller of the Pittsburgh Steelers. After suffering an ACL tear late the season before, the 31-year-old clearly didn't look "right."

Miller's been mostly a non-factor in his 10th NFL season as well, managing just 112 yards on 11 catches to date. 

It's not a health issue, at least according to what teammate Matt Spaeth told Ray Fittipaldo of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette a couple of weeks ago:

"

I can see a big difference in Heath this year and Heath last year. Fortunately, I never had to go through that, but I can’t imagine it’s easy. I’m sure for him and everyone who goes through it, it’s frustrating. He wanted to be his best self and he gave us the best version of him, but it just wasn’t the same.

"

Well, if there was ever a week for Miller to get healthy on the stat sheet, this is it. 

This week, the Steelers play host to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that redefined the term "dumpster fire" in last week's loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

With the Steelers staring up at the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North standings and the Buccaneers looking like the NFC's worst team, there's little reason to think that Pittsburgh won't cruise this week.

And that should mean more than a few chances for Miller to get on track.

Others receiving votes: Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (3 votes), Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (2 votes), Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (2 votes), Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Matt York/Associated Press

Winner: Tie—Patrick Willis, ILB, San Francisco 49ers (3 votes), J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (3 votes)

OK, we've been doing this for a month now, and defensive end J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans has at least tied for the lead in every vote so far.

Yes, Watt's great. The best defensive player in football. Blah blah blah.

Still, this week's vote brings with it the most variety we've had so far, with nine players earning at least one vote.

We also have the first challenger to Watt's throne in the personage of San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis.

It's actually been something of a "down" 2014 for the veteran. According to Pro Football Focus, Willis presently ranks seventh in the NFL among inside linebackers.

That's great for mere mortals, but since Pro Football Focus started tracking players back in 2007, Willis has never finished outside the top five. 

The 49ers are struggling as a team too, losers of two in a row and facing an early season "must-win" situation against the Philadelphia Eagles.

If the 49ers are going to stop the bleeding and get the win at home, they need Willis to step up his game and dominate the middle of the field like he has so many times in the past.

Enough of our experts think he will to make Willis our first non-Watt winner of the week.

Now be vewwy, vewwy qwiet.

And have a great Week 4!

Others receiving votes: Cameron Wake, DE, Miami Dolphins (2 votes), DeAndre Levy, OLB, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Dont'a Hightower, ILB, New England Patriots (1 vote), Luke Kuechly, MLB, Carolina Panthers (1 vote), Chandler Jones, DE, New England Patriots (1 vote), Charles Johnson, DE, Carolina Panthers (1 vote), Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Washington Redskins (1 vote)