NFL Week 4 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

The tricky part of selecting over-unders is knowing you'll never get them all right. When selecting games straight up or even with a spread, there is always this 2 percent gut feeling that maybe this is the week, maybe I'll finally put it all together.

It never happens. But at least you get that temporary feeling.

There is no such happiness with over-unders. The algorithms in Vegas are always going to be a step ahead of our mortal human brains. So over-under bets become an exercise in finding better-than-expected value; no one would realistically bet every single one of these contests.

In that fashion, picking every single one of these even without any money on the line gives you a pit at the bottom of your stomach. There are the games that stand out as obvious—and then the ones that you switch eight times before realizing your gut instinct was correct all along. Or at least right in so much as one can be when trying to mentally simulate a game in your head that a computer can do 8,000 times per second.

The reason over-under betting is difficult is because so many of the lines are perfectly reasonable expectations. But, alas, here we are before Week 4 trying to take another shot. 

All odds via Odds Shark 

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

New York Giants at Washington (45.5)

The Washington Professional Football Team and the Giants were both on fire offensively last week. Kirk Cousins threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns against Philadelphia in one of the week's most exciting contests.

Eli Manning avoided turnovers and executed Ben McAdoo's system beautifully for the second straight week. Manning shouldn't find much resistance against a Washington team that lost its best cornerback DeAngelo Hall for the season. E.J. Biggers isn't scaring anyone except Washington fans. Thursday night games are typically fluky, but this feels like a near-lock.

Take the over.

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders (41)

Yuck. This is such a dreadful game you'll be disappointed even when it pops up on NFL RedZone. No, seriously Scott Hanson, we're good. No need for that Sebastian Janikowski field goal, thanks. 

The only way I can imagine these two teams scoring enough points to hit this over is via a couple of pick-sixes—which is totally in play but also hard to predict. Ryan Tannehill has struggled to the point where he may lose his job to Matt Moore. The Raiders are yet to score more than 14 points.

Take the under.

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (40.5)

The Ravens and Panthers suffer from a similar disease—meaning they're perfectly acceptable but totally benign offensively. Neither looks laborious on film.

Baltimore has recaptured its running game after a miserable 2013, and Steve Smith has become the reliable top receiver Torrey Smith never developed into. The Panthers' high-cost running backs remain injury-prone and disappointing, but their quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception and Kelvin Benjamin looks like he's for real.

Good vibes aside, neither team has touched 30 points this season. This will be a weird one.

Take the over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5)

Maybe if all the points come on Pittsburgh's side? HA! But seriously you guys, the Bucs aren't as terrible as they showed last Thursday. Tampa Bay's first two losses each came by one score, though the first was to a Cam Newton-less Panthers and the second was to an Austin Davis-led Rams. This isn't a sleeper playoff contender the way many predicted, but it's a competitive football team.

The Steelers, meanwhile, can't decide if they're good or terrible. They've gone from being outscored 50-9 in six quarters of football against Cleveland and Baltimore to annihilating Carolina on Monday Night Football. Make up your mind so I can gamble properly, people.

Take the under.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (49.5)

Only take the over here if you have any faith in the Packers or Bears looking offensively competent for four quarters. Because it hasn't been there for either team yet. Green Bay has played four dreadful halves of offensive football, one below expectations and one looking like the best team in football.

Chicago doesn't know what in the hell it is from one possession to the next; Jay Cutler can go from averaging four yards per attempt to seven in one drive. These teams are weird, man. Knowing them (or, rather, not knowing them whatsoever), this'll probably go over by a long shot.

Take the over.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (41)

Or, as it's otherwise known, the battle of the two "sleeper" teams likeliest to sneak into the playoffs only to be flattened in Round 1. The winner of this game will be 3-1, the loser probably headed to 6-10. There are ample questions about the two men under center for each team, and both would be a whole lot better if their stars could stay healthy.

The Texans' running game can survive without Arian Foster, but their playoff chances would be a whole lot better with Jadeveon Clowney rushing the passer. I honestly have no real feel for this game.

Take the under(?).

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (45.5)

I wonder if NFL players on bad teams ever start looking at their team names with irony. Titans? That thing from Greek mythology? US? [bursts into uncontrollable tears/laughter] The Titans remain a bad team. The Colts are a pretty decent one.

Indianapolis' pass rush is shaky enough to make you conceive of a scenario in which Jake Locker (or Charlie Whitehurst) looks competent. Then again, this is the same offense that scored 10 points against Dallas. The hope here is that Ken Whisenhunt gives Bishop Sankey enough work to hit the over.

Take the over.

Detroit Lions at New York Jets (45)

The Lions have scored two offensive touchdowns in as many weeks and boast the NFL's second-best defensive DVOA. Even if Detroit's offensive frustrations are a byproduct of its own mistakes rather than futility, the Lions will have to score in the 30s for me to feel comfortable taking the over. Not. Comfortable.

Take the under.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (44.5)

Jacksonville's offense is going to be better under Blake Bortles than it was under Chad Henne. I know this to be true because it could not possibly have been worse. The Jags were outscored 105-10 with Henne under center since starting the season with a 17-0 lead over Philadelphia.

Bortles is going to be mistake-prone, but he was OK against Indy last week, leading a couple garbage-time drives in the fourth quarter and throwing for 223 yards. Jacksonville fields 11 lawn chairs defensively. This should be an over.

Take the over.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (47)

It depends on how conservative Norv Turner is with the game plan. Teddy Bridgewater took over plans originally designed for Matt Cassel last week, so it was unsurprising to see him look...Cassel-esque. Only twice did Bridgewater attempt a pass that traveled 20 or more yards in the air, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The only relative forms of aggression came from Bridgewater's legs, a stark deviation from his days at Louisville.

Atlanta has a below-average defense and is scoring on everyone, but the burden of proof is on Turner and the Vikings to take advantage.

Take the under.

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (50.5)

Have you watched either of these teams attempt to defend the pass this season? No, really, have you seen them attempt it?

Take the over.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (52.5)

This has all the makings of a trap. The Cowboys have a Jaguars-esque defense on paper and made Austin Davis look like an NFL starter last week. The Saints employ Rob Ryan and cannot get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Football Outsiders measures them as the second-worst defense in football through three weeks.

Given that Tony Romo is back to completing two-thirds of his passes and DeMarco Murray might be the best running back in football, this seems like a "you can't go high enough" line. But MAN 53 is a big number. 

Take the over (with trepidation).

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (45)

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense are in "prove it" mode until further notice. Hanging 16 points on the Raiders will do that.

Take the under.

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