Is Jason Schmidt Worth the Fantasy Gamble?

Jason Schmidt returns to the Dodgers' rotation tonight against the Cincinnati Reds.  That’s news in and of itself; having pitched just 25.2 innings after signing what at the time was thought to be a bargain deal of three years and $47 million.  Can fantasy owners expect anything from a pitcher last seen toeing a major league rubber on June 16, 2007?

He made eight appearances (seven starts) in the minor leagues to prepare for his return, going 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA over 44.1 innings.  Those numbers are nice on the surface, but in six Triple-A appearances he mustered just a 4.18 ERA (5.82 over his last three outings when he allowed 11 earned runs in 17 innings).  Granted, those numbers did occur in the Pacific Coast League, but they are far from promising.

The control did appear to be there in the minors (14 walks vs. 37 strikeouts), so there is some promise, though his days as an elite strikeout seem to be well past him.  He has a career K/9 of 7.96, right around where he was in 2006 (7.59) and 2007 (7.71), but a multitude of shoulder woes make it seem unlikely that he returns to those numbers.  That likelihood becomes even greater when you factor in a loss of velocity.

“There have been plenty of guys that have been able to reinvent themselves as a pitcher,” Stan Conte, the Dodgers trainer, was quoted in the Los Angeles Times (click here for the full article) as saying. 

He added that, “Jason will get that opportunity, and we’ll see what we see, whether or not the shoulder can hold up and whether he can be effective at a major-league level.”

I certainly wouldn’t be expecting him to return to the pitcher he was in 2004, when he went 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 250 Ks.  Nor would I be expecting him to post his 2003 line of 17-5 with a 2.34 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 208 K.

He was once a dominating force, but those days seem like they were light years ago.  Yes, he was solid in 2006, his last full season, but he has missed way too much time. 

While Mike Hampton may not have been the strikeout pitcher Schmidt once was (and not the perfect comparison), he did post a 22-4 season in 1999.  While he struggled at times before he missed two years, his story is one to take into account.  In 2009 he has a 4.63 ERA over 89.1 innings.

I can’t think of a pitcher who missed nearly two seasons before returning to the majors and quickly making a fantasy impact, can you?

My point is that fantasy owners have been flocking to Schmidy, mostly because of his name (in CBS leagues his ownership has spiked from four percent all the way to 37 percent).  Again in CBS leagues, 23 percent of owners are actually starting Schmidt this week, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. 

Personally, I’d rather gamble on someone like Mat Latos, who has been pitching exceptionally well at Triple-A, as opposed to hoping that a pitcher who has had serious arm issues can catch some magic.

We like to talk about risks here.  Schmidt is one of the biggest of them all.  If he had been lights out in Triple-A, maybe I’d say he’s a little bit of a smaller risk, but that’s not the case.

You’re looking at a starting pitcher who hasn’t been on a major league mound in over two years with a Triple-A ERA of over five in his last three outings.  If you took the name out of it, is that a pitcher you would even consider?

Just keep that in mind.  He could prove me wrong.  He could prove usable.  Is it really worth the risk, however?  I don’t think so.  I would say the odds are better for him to post an ERA of above 5 (I’d put them at about 5:1) then it was to be below 4.00 (I’d say about 100:1).  That risk is not worth gambling on for me.

What about everyone else?  Is Schmidt a risk you would be willing to take?  Why or why not?

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