NFL Week 4 Predictions: Projections for the Early Lines, Spreads and Odds

Week 3 was another reminder: The NFL is wildly unpredictable. 

Who had the Pittsburgh Steelers gashing the Carolina Panthers for 264 rushing yards in an 18-point road win? Or the Green Bay Packers scoring just seven points against the Detroit Lions? How about the Minnesota Vikings and the Oakland Raiders keeping things close in New Orleans and New England, respectively?

And I'm sure everyone had the Cincinnati Bengals, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Arizona Cardinals as the final three teams to sit undefeated. 

Still, as we near the completion of the first quarter of the season, we're starting to get a better grasp on what to expect from all 32 teams. So, let's take an early look at what to expect in Week 4. 

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Week 4 Odds and Predictions 

Thursday, Sept. 25	Spread	Pick Against Spread
Sunday, Sept. 28
Monday, Sept. 29
NY Giants at Washington	WAS (-6)	Giants
Miami at Oakland	MIA (-3.5)	Dolphins
Carolina at Baltimore	BAL (-2.5)	Panthers
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh	PIT (-8)	Steelers
Green Bay at Chicago	CHI (-1.5)	Packers
Buffalo at Houston	HOU (-3)	Texans
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND (-6.5)	Colts
Detroit at NY Jets	PK	Lions
Jacksonville at San Diego	SD (-13.5)	Chargers
Atlanta at Minnesota	ATL (-2.5)	Falcons
Philadelphia at San Francisco	SF (-4.5)	49ers
New Orleans at Dallas	NO (-2.5)	Cowboys
New England at Kansas City	NE (-3.5)	Chiefs

Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Chicago Bears

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

For the second time in three week, the Green Bay Packers offense was woefully inefficient, averaging 4.5 yards per play or less. ESPN Stats & Info summarized the 19-7 loss at Detroit:

"Our defense played their butts off tonight," Randall Cobb told reporters after the game. "We did nothing for them. It was kind of embarrassing as an offense, embarrassing myself the way I played."

A reason for the inconsistency so far has been an inability to establish the run. Facing three of the best front sevens in football (Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, Detroit Lions) in the first three weeks, Eddie Lacy has tallied just 113 yards on 36 carries (3.1 YPC), and the Packers are averaging just 3.6 yards per tote as a team. 

The Bears are a little more forgiving in that facet of the game, allowing 5.3 yards per carry to running backs in the first two weeks. 

Eddie Lacy will finally see some running lanes, and a more balanced offense will help the Packers move the ball like a team with that many weapons should move the ball. The Bears are also explosive on offense, but it's never a bad idea to take the most talented quarterback plus the points. 

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

Say what you want about the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the beatdown the Indianapolis Colts put on the Jags in Week 3 would be impressive no matter who lined up on the other side of the field. Andrew Luck was, of course, at the center of the 44-17 win, putting together a performance that hasn't been equaled in almost 50 years, via The Herald Bulletin's George Bremer:

The Colts lost their first two games of the season, but after a seven-point loss on the road against the defending AFC champion Denver Broncos and a hard-luck three-point defeat against the Philadelphia Eagles, it was hardly time to panic. 

Sunday's result was more proof. Indy hung 529 yards of total offense on a hot-knife-through-butter 7.1 yards per play. The defense is still shaky, but this team has so many different weapons, especially when Ahmad Bradshaw is on the field instead of Trent Richardson. 

Bradshaw, via the Indy Star's Stephen Holder, touched on that multifaceted attack:

The Titans, meanwhile, after a strong start to the season, have given up 59 points in the last two weeks and aren't showing the ability to keep up on offense. Divisional games have a tendency to turn into closely contested battles, but with Indy at home, this has "blowout" written all over it.