NFL Picks Week 3: Odds and Over-Under Advice Before Sunday Kickoff

With one game already in the books—perhaps one the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would like to forget—15 games remain on the slate for the 2014 NFL season's third week of action. Through two weeks, the league's dominant teams have begun to establish themselves and each division's pecking order is starting to take shape.

While we know more about the 2014 version of each NFL franchise, so do Vegas oddsmakers. Spreads have already been put into place in an effort to even the week's impending contests—in the eyes of linemakers—between competing teams. There's no such thing as a sure thing, but it's up to us to decipher which of these lines are worth the gamble.

Taking current trends, injuries and team tendencies into consideration, let's take a look at the odds and over-under for each remaining Week 3 game and decide which is the best way to beat Vegas.

Home	Home Odds	Away	Over-Under	Pick
Buffalo Bills	-1	San Diego Chargers	45.5	SD
New England Patriots	-14.5	Oakland Raiders	46.5	NE
New Orleans Saints	-10.5	Minnesota Vikings	50	Over
Cincinnati Bengals	-7	Tennessee Titans	43	CIN
New York Giants	+1.5	Houston Texans	41.5	Over
Cleveland Browns	+2	Baltimore Ravens	42	Over
Philadelphia Eagles	-6.5	Washington Redskins	50	WAS
Detroit Lions	-1	Green Bay Packers	53	Under
St. Louis Rams	+2	Dallas Cowboys	44	DAL
Jacksonville Jaguars	+7	Indianapolis Colts	45.5	IND
Arizona Cardinals	+3	San Francisco 49ers	42	SF
Miami Dolphins	-4	Kansas City Chiefs	42	Over
Seattle Seahawks	-5	Denver Broncos	49	DEN
Carolina Panthers	-3	Pittsburgh Steelers	42	CAR
New York Jets	-3	Chicago Bears	45.5	CHI

All game odds courtesy of Bovada, via OddsShark.com, and current as of September 20.

Analysis

New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings

Jason Miller/Getty Images

This game is poised to produce a ton of points. The Saints are the perfect team to bet the over given their prolific offense and porous defense. Despite starting the year with an 0-2 record, Drew Brees and Co. own the league's sixth-ranked passing offense and fifth-ranked rushing offense. Conversely, the team is ranked dead last against the pass and 21st against the run.

In each of the team's first two contests, the total score has been at least 50 points. A Week 1 overtime thriller against the Atlanta Falcons resulted in a 37-34 loss, totaling a whopping 71 points. Against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2, the Saints defense allowed 26 points while the offense produced 24—a total of 50.

That Week 2 score is likely to be repeated in Week 3 against the Vikings. After all, according to Brees' Twitter account, he's ready for action:

In Week 1 against a lackluster St. Louis Rams defense, the Vikings put up 34 points. They followed that performance up with a dismal 30-7 loss at the hands of the New England Patriots. While the loss to New England wasn't pretty, New Orleans hasn't shown it can stop anyone in that same manner.

Minnesota's defense is only giving up an average of 18 points per game this season; however, that will change after the team's secondary faces its first relentless aerial attack of the season.

Bet: Over

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Both of these teams may be 0-2 entering Week 3; however, there's a significant differential in talent between the two sides.

The Jaguars got off to a hot start in 2014, leading the Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points heading into the second half of their Week 1 contest. Yet, the team quickly fell back down to earth, allowing the Eagles to score 34 unanswered points over the final two quarters of the game.

That trend continued in Week 2 against the Washington Redskins. After quarterback Robert Griffin III left the game due to an ankle injury, the Jaguars allowed backup Kirk Cousins to rack up 41 points while Jacksonville's starters could only muster 10.

Jacksonville may continue struggling to put up points on Sunday considering one of the team's wide receivers will be missing in action, via SI Wire:

"

Jaguars WR Marqise Lee will miss Sunday's game against the Colts with an injured hamstring: http://t.co/3h6VzZ2KH1 pic.twitter.com/P2B9w8Z9zF

— SI Wire (@SI_Wire) September 18, 2014"

The Colts may have lost two games to start the season; however, they were against two very good teams in the Denver Broncos and Eagles.

Andrew Luck was impressive in Week 1, passing for 370 yards, but he had no running game to balance out the offense. While Trent Richardson continued to struggle in Week 2, Ahmad Bradshaw stepped up in a big way, totaling 13 carries for 70 yards and adding five receptions for 26 yards and two scores.

Expect this Colts offense to step on the gas right out of the gate, as Luck will ensure his team won't lose a third consecutive game.

Bet: Colts (-7)

St. Louis Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

After being shut down by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, the Cowboys had an epiphany. By keeping the ball on the ground with talented running back DeMarco Murray, not only does the offense control the game, but it also limits the amount of turnovers produced by quarterback Tony Romo.

That game plan served the Cowboys nicely in Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans. Romo threw 29 passes, completing 19 of them for 176 yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Murray carried 29 times for 167 yards and a score—Dallas rushed 43 times for 220 yards as a team.

Numbers Never Lie tweeted an impressive stat regarding Murray's success early in the season:

This allowed the Cowboys to generate a time of possession of 41 minutes while turning the ball over just once. Of course, that led to a decisive 26-10 victory.

Expect that game plan to continue in Week 3 against a Rams defense that is allowing an average of 171 rushing yards per game—good enough to rank 29th in the league. While St. Louis put up 19 points on Tampa Bay in Week 2, that suddenly doesn't seem as impressive considering the Buccaneers' showing on Thursday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons.

Bet: Cowboys (-2)