NFL Picks Week 3: Updated Outlook on Sunday's Odds and Spreads

Week 3 opened with one of the most lopsided NFL games in recent memory, but don't expect much of the same when the slate starts again on Sunday.

The Atlanta Falcons trounced the hapless Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football, winning 56-14 in a game that would've been even more out of control had Tampa Bay not scored two late touchdowns. While the Falcons may not be the only team to win big this weekend, Sunday's games guarantee to be a return to the back-and-forth, unpredictable affairs that have fueled the NFL early on this season.

Here's a quick rundown of the lines and spreads for every Week 3 game, followed by predictions.

Matchup (Spread)	Time (ET)	Over/Under	Prediction
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)	1 p.m.	42.5	CIN 24-16
San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)	1 p.m.	45.5	SD 20-13
Dallas Cowboys at St. Louis Rams (Even)	1 p.m.	44	DAL 24-17
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)	1 p.m.	50	PHI 30-14
Houston Texans (-1) at New York Giants	1 p.m	41.5	NYG 20-17
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-11)	1 p.m.	49	NO 31-20
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Even)	1 p.m.	41	BAL 27-24 OT
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)	1 p.m.	52	GB 28-21
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars	1 p.m.	45	IND 31-17
Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots (-15)	1 p.m.	47	NE 38-13
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals	4:05 p.m.	42	SF 23-17
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5)	4:25 p.m.	48.5	SEA 30-27
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)	4:25 p.m.	42.5	KC 17-14
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3)	8:30 p.m.	42	CAR 34-20
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-2.5)	8:30 p.m. (Mon.)	45.5	NYJ 28-24

Note: All odds courtesy of Odds Shark, updated as of Sept. 19

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills

DENIS POROY/Associated Press

Coming off a resounding home victory over the Super Bowl champs, the San Diego Chargers will head to the east coast to face a surging Buffalo Bills squad.

Doug Marrone's Bills have been one of the early-season stories this NFL season, jumping out to a 2-0 record after toppling the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins—the latter by almost three touchdowns. A stellar running game powered by C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson along with timely plays from EJ Manuel have led the way for the defense to play well defending a lead.

It's not surprising, then, to see the Bills sell out Sunday's game, per their Twitter account:

That same defense will have its hands full on Sunday against Philip Rivers, who has picked up where he left off last season. And Buffalo's offense could have similar troubles against a Chargers run defense that—save for a 51-yard carry from Percy Harvin—held the Seahawks to just over 50 yards rushing last weekend.

Buffalo's defense—while impressive through two games—has struggled mightily in the air, currently ranking in the bottom five of the league in pass defense. Against Rivers, a peaking Antonio Gates and a ready-to-breakout Keenan Allen, it will only get worse. 

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller is so confident that he's striking a bet with Bills fans:

Rivers had little trouble taking it to the Legion of Boom secondary last weekend, and he'll be hungry to repeat his success against a lesser-talented secondary. The Bills' run game will keep them relevant, but Manuel will be forced to make plays late and come up short against a ball-hawking Chargers defense. 

Prediction: Chargers win, 20-13

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

After side-stepping their competition to begin the season, the Arizona Cardinals look to make it a perfect 3-0 heading into a meeting with the AFC champions. But it will have to come against another powerhouse of the league.

The San Francisco 49ers come into town to face Arizona in a Sunday mid-afternoon tilt that will help to decide which of these defenses is truly elite, and which NFC power—if any—looks the part of a Super Bowl contender.

Of course, the Niners don't come in with the record they imagined. They opened Levi's Stadium in Week 2 and jumped out to a 17-0 lead over Chicago but allowed the Bears to rally back and spoil San Francisco's stadium-warming party.

It's safe to say Jim Harbaugh's squad won't be short on motivation coming off that loss, per Cam Inman of Bay Area News Group:

San Francisco's defense has been a shell of itself early in the season without usual impact-makers NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith, but they've still shown dominance at times. The defense wreaked havoc against a stout Cowboys offensive line in Week 1 and dominated the Bears until Jay Cutler's unlikely three fourth-quarter touchdowns.

The Niners may have trouble establishing the run against the league's third-ranked run defense, but Michael Crabtree has had his way against Arizona in recent years as Taylor Price of 49ers.com noted:

Having two bruisers with wheels like Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde Jr. is the key to taking down a strong run defense. If they can find the holes against this stout front four, it will open things up for Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis on the outside.

With a nasty schedule and a target on their backs coming off three straight conference championship appearances, the Niners will be hungry to get back to winning ways after last weekend's debacle.

Prediction: San Francisco wins, 28-17

Chicago Bears at New York Jets

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Speaking of teams desperate to erase last weekend's ghastly memories, the New York Jets also have a football game this weekend. And boy, will they be happy to get back on the gridiron and forget all about Week 2.

The Jets gave away a 21-3 early lead on the road against the Green Bay Packers to lose, but that wasn't what dominated the headlines. Instead, it was a botched timeout call that negated Geno Smith's go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter that ultimately led to the Jets' defeat. 

Meanwhile, the Bears are polar opposites in terms of momentum after their comeback victory over San Francisco. 

This Monday Night Football matchup seemed to start as an even spread but things have since shifted in the home team's favor as Seth Walder of New York Daily News demonstrated:

Recent form indicates the Bears will continue their momentum while the Jets will continue struggling, but ESPNNewYork.com's Rich Cimini explained why that might not be the case:

"

They built the 21-3 lead with a run-heavy approach (18 runs, 10 passes), using a variety of schemes that kept the Packers off balance. The Packers adjusted and the Jets got away from the run, with a run-pass ratio of 16-26 over the final nine drives. I think the Jets got a little caught up in trying to keep pace with Rodgers, and it took them out of their comfort zone. 

This week, there will be a renewed emphasis on the running game

"

The Jets have been dynamos running the football this season. They rank first in the league in rushing yards per game with 179, and also top the league in run defense—giving up 52.5 yards on the ground per contest.

Jay Cutler will have the chance again to lead his team back from behind, but a poor Bears run defense will be a huge disadvantage early on against Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. From there, the Jets will learn from last weekend's mistakes and keep it with their bread and butter—on the ground.

Prediction: Jets win, 28-24

All stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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