Predicting the Unpredictable or What To Look Forward to in 2010

A traveller once called their corporate travel agent to inquire on flights.  Upon finding out that there is no space on the desired flight the traveller then asked for the travel agent to predict if any space will become available between the time of the call and the time of travel. 

The travel agent advised the traveller that this is impossible to predict, and after putting down the phone joked with her co-workers about purchasing the crystal ball over the next few weeks. 

Questions such as what may or may not happen or what the future may bring are not too un-common and while it is often impossible to predict it is exciting to contemplate on where this path or that one might be headed. 

If one were to attempt to predict the season to come in Formula I the request would verge on the edge of being deemed insane, as not even a current season can be predicted; if an average fan were to look at any season for proof of this then 2009 would be the key candidate. 

Brawn leading championship, Red Bull challenging, Ferrari and Mclaren failing to shine, and Bourdais being sacked before the season is through; it is as unpredictable as a drunk man’s actions, well, at least all of the above minus the Bourdais part. 

F1 is quite unpredictable, hence the idea of even attempting to chart the 2010 season in 2009 is irrational, insane, yet at the same time interesting and quite tempting. 

2009 can still bring quite a few dramas, and throw in a few twists and turns.  Yet like it or not the 2009 season will see the crowning of the first non-manufacturer champion since 1998, and the first non-Renault non-McLaren non-Ferrari champion since 1997 and if Williams is included, since 1995.  

The landscape of F1 has been dominated by large teams for quite some time now; if a fan is to look at the championships for the '90s and the '00s, McLaren has taken three championships, Williams five, Ferrari eight, Benetton two, and Renault two.

The '80s proved even more predictable as only Ferrari, Williams, and McLaren shared in the glory of winning championships.  The numbers are staggering, only three teams stand on the same level, while the others quibble and fight over the crumbs. 

While fans of Ferrari and McLaren may be disappointed by their team’s failure, F1 is proving to be quite interesting and unpredictable.  Sadly with the suspension of midseason testing there is no possibility of either team taking the crown at this point.

As a result what Michael Schumacher achieved on his own in the final few seasons of his career, and what the FIA hoped to prevent, has been repeated due to the rules and decisions introduced by that very same body, the FIA. 

Teams are now switching their focus to the 2010 season seeing that to catch up to Brawn or Red Bull is proving ever more impossible from week to week.  The domination by both teams has secured the very reality that by Mid August only two teams will be challenging for the crown. 

It was not long ago that entering August of the F1 calendar meant that Ferrari had clinched the constructor’s championship, while Michael Schumacher the driver’s. 

The outcome of the 2004 season is now being repeated in 2009; in 2004 the final standings were the result of a combination of driver and car superiority brought about by years of development, while in 2009 that driver and car superiority combines for success on track because of rules and regulations.

It can not be denied that Brawn and Red Bull have brought to the F1 grid impressive packages capable of taking both crowns, however the introduction of new rules regarding how a car is to be built has erased all achievement and development to date and put everyone on even level. 

This ruling, comparable to a safety car session during an F1 race, has forced all the teams to abandon previously developments and start from square one.  It has turned the F1 world upside down, while at the same time providing for some interesting drama and changes to the plot.

When one looks towards the 2010 campaign will similar surprises be thrown in, or will we see Brawn and Red Bull dominate while the rest of the grid works to catch up?  Will there be an F1 grid?  Will a new comer such as USF1 take the crown?  Will we see a woman racer in F1?  How will the cars look like?   Who will run F1?

2010 will see F1 take to the gird with a few new comers.  Among the new comers will be USF1.  In 2008 the project was announced to the public and while it is an exciting proposal it is quite unlikely that they will challenge for the crown. 

It certainly is possible that 2010 might be a repeat of 2009, and a new comer will achieve what Brawn GP has done in their first year, the possibility of such an outcome is highly unlikely. 

BMW, Ferrari, McLaren will fight tooth and nail to return to their winning ways.  Massa’s performance in Germany has proven that Ferrari is already on their way up, and as the Scuderia switches its resources to the 2010 car they will be tough to beat. 

McLaren has already shown that their car can match the Brawns in practice sessions, and as the Hungarian GP approaches they are targeting a podium finish already. 

The 2010 season is quite some time off from the Hungarian Grand Prix; however what happens in 2009 will most likely impact the following season.

The Concorde agreement is not yet signed and the rules for 2010 are not written in stone, however for the rules to dictate another radical development in car design would be quite unwise.  Unless the 2009 rules are overturned the 2010 cars will most likely be refined versions of their 2009 predecessors. 

Certainly some teams will leave various designs behind, but the look of the cars will remain quite similar.  The design of the 2009 cars has been well received, minus the front wing, and the cars are not only fast but also exciting to watch. 

With F1 being in cost-saving mode the idea of changing the rules pertaining to design of the cars would be ridiculous; it would be easier and cheaper to refine the designs rather than to throw away all R&D for a second season in a row. 

What may not be present in 2010, regardless of the R&D money spent, is the large “snow-plow” like front wing.  The reason for its introduction was sound, however in the twenty first century the result could have been achieved with a sexier design. 

The wing has also been the culprit of some of this season’s shunts, and drivers such as Robert Kubica have questioned how one can get closer wheel to wheel racing with a wing that is wider than the actual car.  IT is quite possible that the wing design of 2009 may join KERS in the graveyard of failed ideas. 

An idea that could prove exciting and viable in 2010 is the introduction of a female racer.  It has been decades since a female racer took to the F1 grid.  With the introduction of a few new teams to the grid in 2010 seats will become available to just about anyone.

The USF1 team could bring excitement to the sport not only because they are an American outfit entering the sport, but also because they could bring Danica Patrick along for the ride.  Danica has said that she has yet to be approached, and this may never come to fruition, but it is an interesting idea.

A female driver in F1 would increase the sport’s popularity, which over the last two seasons has grown significantly.  A female in the sport would also make it really 21st century.

The possibility of a female F1 driver being reality can be quickly dismissed if one recalls Bernie Ecclestone’s comments that women should be all dressed in white like all other domestic appliances.  Perhaps with the exit of Max and the inevitable exit of Bernie this can become a reality.

Bernie knows a thing or two about increasing the profit and success of F1, and sooner or later he is bound to realize the potential of a female racer.  Bernie, however, is old, and like Max Moseley, he is bound to call it quits.

Max Moseley will most likely be replaced by Jean Todt.  Jean will bring with him the support of most likely the French and Italian representations to the FIA, the French because of his nationality, but Italian because of his involvement with Ferrari.  Jean will most likely also get the support of the Max supporters. 

Max Mosley will not stand for re-election in October; however, his support within the organization has been strong. In backing the Frenchman, Max has undoubtedly guaranteed the support of his followers.  Jean Todt would be a good choice as he is strong, comes with a multitude of experience, and bears the character of a leader. 

Max is departing, but what of Bernie.  He is likely to retire as well, but before that he must begin training his successor.  F1 is what it is because of Bernie, and becoming Bernie will not happen overnight. 

The next person to take the reigns will not be a clone of Bernie and will run things differently, but he or she will need to pick up where Bernie has left things, and he or she will need to be trained to some extent.  F1 would be very lucky to have someone such as Ron Dennis take up Bernie’s place. 

Ron has left F1 behind just this year and while he may have already been absent a few months his mind has not grown duller, and should the job become available, tomorrow or the next week he would be more than able to keep up with the fast moving pace of the sport. 

Thus there are the predictions for 2010, Jean Todt as the new Max Mosley, Ron Dennis the new Bernie, maybe a woman driver or two, 2010 cars being not dramatically different but evolved versions of their 2009 predecessors, and more importantly a full grid in 2010.