NFL Week 3 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

You can worry about your picks if you go the straight-up route or fret all game long about a point spread, all the while often finding yourself rooting against your favorite team. Or, you could eliminate any conflicts with your rooting interest and simply bet on totals. 

It's a wonderful thing in that regard, the over/under, and below we'll make picks for every game this week based on the total while singling a few contests out. Think of it as getting to watch your favorite team with a little more peace this weekend.

Schedule and Over/Under

Thursday, Sept. 18	Time (ET)	Over/Under	Pick
Thursday, Sept. 18	Time (ET)	Over/Under	Pick
Thursday, Sept. 18	Time (ET)	Over/Under	Pick
Tampa Bay at Atlanta	8:25 p.m.	45	Under
Oakland at New England	1 p.m.	46.5	Under
San Diego at Buffalo	1 p.m.	44	Over
Dallas at St. Louis	1 p.m.	45	Under
Washington at Philadelphia	1 p.m.	50	Over
Houston at New York Giants	1 p.m.	42	Under
Minnesota at New Orleans	1 p.m.	51	Over
Tennessee at Cincinnati	1 p.m.	43	Under
Baltimore at Cleveland	1 p.m.	41.5	Over
Green Bay at Detroit	1 p.m.	52	Over
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	1 p.m.	45	Over
San Francisco at Arizona	4:05 p.m.	42.5	Under
Denver at Seattle	4:25 p.m.	48.5	Under
Kansas City at Miami	4:25 p.m.	42	Under
Pittsburgh at Carolina	8:30 p.m.	42	Over
Chicago at New York Jets	8:30 PM	45.5	Under

Analysis

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

When it comes to over-under picks, I'm generally going to go over in a game when a great offense is playing anything other than a poor defense. And when two pretty proficient offenses match up and neither team is great defensively, it's pretty much a no-brainer. 

A total at 50 points between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington feels criminally low, for instance.

The Eagles are averaging 32 points per game and giving up 22 per contest. Washington's defense has been better, on the other hand, but they just put 41 points on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It wouldn't be shocking if both teams reached 30 points in this game. Absolutely go with the over in this contest.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Another game where the total feels a bit low is the 52 points between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in Detroit. Green Bay is averaging 33.5 points per game. Detroit is averaging 29.5 points per contest. Both teams have explosive offenses and are largely healthy on that side of the ball.

The counter-argument would be that neither game between these teams went above 52 points last year. But with both offenses humming along quite nicely thus far, I want the over in this one. 

As for the under picks, look toward the Tennessee Titans traveling to face the Cincinnati Bengals where the total is 43 points. In their last nine regular-season home games, the Bengals have held opponents to 14 or fewer points five times.

The Titans, meanwhile, have been in two games that have totaled 36 points, winning by a 26-10 margin in one game and losing by that same score in the other. 

The Titans struggled against the run against the Dallas Cowboys while the Bengals focused on their own running game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Expect the Bengals defense to keep the Titans in check while playing ball-control on offense by pounding the rock. 

I would also take the under on 42 points in the game between the Houston Texans and New York Giants, primarily because I don't trust either offense.

The Texans are also playing excellent defense at the moment, holding opponents to an average of 10 points per game, while the Giants are averaging only 14 points per contest and have turned the ball over a total of five times. 

It's possible the Giants could leak points to the Texans—or that Eli Manning will finally wake up and pump some life into the team's passing game—but it seems more likely that the Texans will control this game with their defense and a steady diet of Arian Foster pounding the rock in the run game.

One game I probably wouldn't touch? The Thursday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons, with a total of 45 points.

I feel like the Falcons could score 30 all on their own in this one, no questions asked. I also feel like Tampa's secondary could play up to their talent and force Matt Ryan and company to rely on a suspect running game.

In general, I find Thursday night games to be incredibly unpredictable, as teams are off their normal schedules and many of the bumps and bruises that would be a non-factor on Sunday can affect a performance on Thursday.

And for as disappointing as they've been offensively this year, the Bucs haven't been bad on defense and won't roll over for the Falcons. 

I don't want to touch this contest, and I think you should steer clear, too.

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy questions and make some corny jokes too. It's more fun than playing hot potato with James Jones.