NFL Picks Week 3: Game-by-Game Advice for Current Vegas Spreads

After two weeks in the NFL season, it is hard to judge which teams are actually good. This makes it even tougher to make picks for the Week 3 slate of games.

Fans generally do not know what to make of the 2-0 Buffalo Bills or the 0-2 New Orleans Saints, both of whom are surprising based on preseason expectations. While there are certainly flukes in the NFL, the later in the season we go, the more we have to believe the records are real.

Week 3 will be a big test for a number of squads, and the results will be very telling about where each team stands in the league. Here are predictions for what to expect from an exciting weekend in the NFL.

Away	Home	ATS Pick*	Note
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	ATL (-6.5)	The Buccaneers have now lost games with Derek Anderson and Austin Davis as the opposing starting quarterback. Matt Ryan is a much bigger threat, especially at home.
San Diego Chargers	Buffalo Bills	SD (+2.5)	Traveling across the country will be difficult, but the Chargers just showed they can beat a run-heavy team with a good defense in the Seahawks. They should do the same to the Bills.
Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	DAL (-1)	Dallas looked better in Week 2 than in Week 1, and it is still difficult to trust the Rams offense.
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-6.5)	Kirk Cousins looked good in relief of an injured Robert Griffin III, but it helped that it was against the Jaguars. He will come back to earth while the Eagles offense has its way with the Redskins' poor secondary.
Houston Texans	New York Giants	NYG (+2)	If the Giants can avoid turnovers, they have players who can move the football on offense and finally get a win at home.
Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	NO (-10.5)	It is hard to trust the Saints after two poor performances, but the first two games were on the road, and Drew Brees and company are always better at home.
Tennessee Titans	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-7)	Cincinnati has quietly been one of the best home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons and should be able to keep it going with an easy win.
Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns	CLE (PK)	The Browns are not as bad as we thought they were. They should be able to shut down an inconsistent Baltimore offense and squeak out a victory.
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	GB (+2)	Aaron Rodgers can succeed against a defense with a good line but weak secondary, and he should be able to do it against Detroit.
Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	IND (-7)	Jacksonville had one good half of football to start the season, but since then, the Jags have been exactly what many were expecting. The Colts are also too good to fall to 0-3 and should be able to bounce back this week.
Oakland Raiders	New England Patriots	OAK (+14)	Tom Brady has not been on the same page with his receivers, which makes this spread way too much to trust against any opponent.
San Francisco 49ers	Arizona Cardinals	ARI (+3)	Arizona has had injuries on defense but still come through with one of the best units in the league. If Carson Palmer plays, the Cardinals should move to 3-0.
Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks	SEA (-5)	It might not be as ugly as the Super Bowl, but the Seahawks have mostly the same defense and should slow down Peyton Manning. Playing at CenturyLink Field gives them an added advantage.
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	MIA (-4.5)	The Chiefs keep losing key players on both sides of the ball, which will make it difficult to beat anyone this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-3.5)	Carolina showcased its defensive prowess against the Lions, and the Steelers defense has not been much to fear this season. The Panthers should have little problem winning this one.
Chicago Bears	New York Jets	CHI (+2.5)	Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery should be healthier in a week, which makes the Bears offense tough to defend. This will help the squad pull out another close win.

Best Bets

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Tennessee Titans

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

When thinking about the best home-field advantages in the NFL, most minds go directly to the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks. However, the Cincinnati Bengals have been as good as anyone at Paul Brown Stadium.

They went a perfect 8-0 last season at home and have a 10-game winning streak overall. R.J. Bell of ESPN Radio also notes how well they have fared against the spread:

Even without A.J. Green, the Bengals easily defeated the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday thanks to a great rushing attack by Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Considering DeMarco Murray rushed for 167 yards himself against the Tennessee Titans' defense in Week 2, the Bengals could be in line for another big day.

At the same time, Tennessee only scoring 10 points against a weak Dallas Cowboys defense is more cause for concern for the Titans.

The Bengals are clearly the better team and should be able to come through with an easy win on Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Norm Hall/Getty Images

When the San Francisco 49ers struggled to move the football in the preseason, there was a little concern. However, the alarms should be ringing after two inconsistent performances during the regular season.

Colin Kaepernick had four turnovers against the Chicago Bears and could only lead touchdown drives of eight and 30 yards. Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News provided the quarterback's thoughts after the loss:

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports mocked the quarterback's play during the game:

With Arizona allowing just 2.6 yards per carry this season after having the No. 1 run defense in the league last season, the 49ers are going to have a hard time moving the football.

The question for the Cardinals is on the other side of the ball, where starting quarterback Carson Palmer was forced to miss last game with a shoulder injury. If he is able to come back to the field, he should be able to lead a talented group of skill players to a strong offensive performance and a win over the division rival.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South and earned a bye in the playoffs last season, and that was not by accident. With Cam Newton returning to the field, the Panthers once again showed why they should be taken seriously with a 24-7 win over the Detroit Lions.

Newton had a strong performance in the win, although he was a harsh grader of himself, via Max Henson of Panthers.com:

"

I did alright. But moving forward I'll get my feet back under me and as the game went on I started feeling more and more comfortable and it showed. It was fun to go out there and battle. 

I have to put my team in a better situation to be successful early on. Because if our defense wasn't playing lights out early, who knows what this game would have been. We'll do a better job and start up faster next week.

"

Still, he should be able to get plenty of production against a defense that hardly resembles the Pittsburgh Steelers units of old.

Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense has only managed nine points in the last six quarters. Against one of the best front sevens in the league, this squad is once again going to struggle to get into the end zone in an uphill battle all day long.

Spreads via Odds Shark. 

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