Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Betting Odds, Analysis and Prediction

Two teams that began 2014 in a winning fashion get together when the Atlanta Falcons challenge the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon at Paul Brown Stadium.

Atlanta went 1-7 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS) on the road last year, while Cincy went a perfect 8-0 both SU and ATS at home. Will those trends continue Sunday? Or will they be bucked?

The Bengals are riding a 9-2 ATS run as a home favorite, while the Falcons have lost seven in a row when getting points on the road.

Point spread: The Bengals opened as five-point favorites; the total was 48 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 27.9-16.8 Cincinnati

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

After a disastrous 2013, the Falcons opened 2014 with an exciting 37-34 overtime victory over division rival New Orleans, winning outright as three-point home dogs. Atlanta trailed early 13-0 and 20-7, but it rallied back to take the lead in the third quarter.

The Falcons later tied the game on a 51-yard Matt Bryant field goal at the buzzer—then won it on Bryant's 52-yard boot in OT. Atlanta racked up 568 yards of total offense, with 123 coming on the ground, got 448 yards passing and three touchdowns from Matt Ryan and 17 catches for 290 yards from the threesome of Julio Jones, Roddy White and newcomer Devin Hester.

If healthy, the Falcons could be in for a bounce-back season.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The defending AFC North champion Bengals opened this season with a big 23-16 divisional road win at Baltimore Sunday. Cincy led most of the game, fell behind late but won it on an Andy Dalton-to-AJ Green 77-yard circus score and a game-ending defensive stand near the red zone.

The Bengals only ran for 79 yards, but Dalton was efficient, going 25-for-38 passing without an interception. And the Cincy defense, outside of a blown-coverage assignment on a long Baltimore score, held the Ravens in check. The Bengals still have their doubters, but winning on the road in the division to begin the season is a good start.

Now, they have a chance to get to 2-0 at home.

Smart Pick

In the NFL, the team that controls the ball and the clock wins most of the games and covers most of the spreads. And for this matchup, the team most likely to control the ball and the clock is Cincinnati.

So the pick here is (as it is for the Odds Shark prediction computer) with the Bengals minus the points over the flighty Falcons.

How confident is Odds Shark? This is one of its five weekly picks for the prestigious Westgate Supercontest and its $2 million prize pool.

Trends

• The Falcons are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games against the AFC North.
• The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs of five points or more.
• The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites of five points or more.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.