NFL Week 2 Picks: Breaking Down Toughest Matchups from Weekend Slate

Bettors brave enough to dive into the deep end of the NFL spreads pool last week surely got a tough taste of how dangerous the waters can be—and will experience it again if lessons learned are not applied to Week 2 odds. 

Week 1 was littered with misses due to near impossible-to-discern spreads. Chicago was a surefire winner, right? Nope. Kansas City? Negative. New England? Try again.

Things don't get any easier as the league continues to go through the paces of the first few weeks. The spreads this week are noticeably closer in most cases, which makes the task at hand all the more difficult.

Below, let's take a look at the entire slate and then break down two of the most unpredictable matchups the weekend presents.

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Miami at Buffalo	EVEN	Miami	Miami took care of Tom Brady, so EJ Manuel shouldn't be a problem.
Jacksonville at Washington	Washington (-4.5)	Jacksonville	Washington lost to a team on a 14-game losing streak. RG3 is a mess.
Dallas at Tennessee	Tennessee (-3.5)	Dallas	Tony Romo does not throw three picks THAT often.
Arizona at NY Giants	NY Giants (-1.5)	Arizona	See analysis below chart.
New England at Minnesota	New England (-4.5)	Minnesota	That New England defense isn't stopping Adrian Peterson. Mike Zimmer can handle Brady well enough.
New Orleans at Cleveland	New Orleans (-6.5)	New Orleans	Cleveland's biggest weakness is under center, which is a bad recipe against Drew Brees.
Atlanta at Cincinnati	Cincinnati (-5)	Atlanta	Cincinnati's defense showed cracks last week when Baltimore actually caught the ball. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards.
Detroit at Carolina	Carolina (-1)	Detroit	Detroit touts an elite run defense, and Cam Newton will be rusty upon return. Panthers cannot guard Calvin Johnson, either.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay (-4.5)	Tampa Bay	See analysis below chart.
Seattle at San Diego	Seattle (-4.5)	Seattle	Seattle secondary can quiet Philip Rivers.
Houston at Oakland	EVEN	Oakland	Home team has an advantage, right?
NY Jets at Green Bay	Green Bay (-9)	NY Jets	Rex Ryan's defensive line will obliterate the Packers offensive line.
Kansas City at Denver	Denver (-12.5)	Kansas City	As long as Andy Reid remembers Jamaal Charles is on the roster, this one should be close.
Chicago at San Francisco	San Francisco (-7)	San Francisco	Chicago's defense is a mess.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis (Mon., Sept 15)	Indianapolis (-2.5)	Philadelphia	Philadelphia offense will have a big day against Colts defense.

Odds via Odds Shark and accurate as of 5 p.m. ET, Sept. 11.

Arizona at NY Giants

A pair of teams from the first edition of Monday Night Football meet after wildly different results. Despite this, the outcome of this clash is not exactly easy to see.

In the first contest last Monday, New York bumbled its way through things with no answer for Detroit's offense. Even worse, Eli Manning's offense, or lack thereof, was mediocre at best.

Manning's offensive line was miserable, to say the least. Under pressure all night, he threw for just 163 yards and one touchdown to two interceptions. His running backs, led by free-agent acquisition Rashad Jennings (46 yards and a score), managed all of 2.4 yards per carry.

No wonder the offensive line ranked as the third-worst unit in the league in the run-blocking category over at Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Then again, Arizona's offense did not look like a usual Bruce Arians unit in terms of efficiency. Sure, it racked up 403 yards and Carson Palmer threw two touchdowns, but a total of just 18 points against San Diego was not an encouraging outing.

What makes this matchup so volatile is expansive. For one, Arizona has to travel a solid distance. Secondly, the defense remains a work in progress without players such as Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett. The unit was able to generate solid pressure Monday, but now the Giants know what to expect and from where.

Most of all, though, is one simple fact: Offenses can adapt in a hurry, while defenses more often than not are very much a reactionary part of the sport.

"From that first game is where you'll learn the most," Manning said, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com. "Looking at a full game and a lot of plays we'll go back and dissect and it'll be great for me to learn where I need to improve, where I need to get better."

Expect Manning to do a better job of getting key players such as Victor Cruz involved on quick-hitting plays Sunday to make things interesting.

While the duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd is no Calvin Johnson, expect the Giants secondary to struggle Sunday. Arizona should be able to pull through in a shootout as long as Palmer stays upright, but it won't be some ridiculous blowout just because the Giants showed poorly opening week.

Prediction: Cardinals 23, Giants 20

St. Louis at Tampa Bay

Hey, "toughest" does not necessarily imply "quality."

Besides, this could could turn out to be entertaining and funny. What's not to like?

Just look at this nugget from NFL on ESPN:

To be fair to Tampa Bay quarterback Josh McCown, he was facing an elite Carolina defense in his debut with a new team and—most important of all—without the guidance of quarterback guru Marc Trestman.

The journeyman veteran finished with 183 yards and a pair of touchdowns and interceptions, with the scores coming in garbage time. He was far from the worst performer on offense, though, as back Doug Martin took nine carries for as many yards. For some strange reason, the staff decided to attempt just 14 designed runs overall.

But wait, there's more. The Tampa Bay defense, which figured to be a strong unit under the guidance of new coach Lovie Smith, allowed Derek Anderson—not Cam Newton—to throw for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Marc Serota/Associated Press

Believe it or not, St. Louis still looked even worse last week. 

Without Sam Bradford, Austin Davis performed the lion's share of the work under center against Minnesota and managed all of 192 yards and an interception on 23 attempts. Star back Zac Stacy was given the ball all of 11 times, which he turned into 43 yards.

By far the most ridiculous thing, though (outside of the defense giving up 355 total yards to a Matt Cassel-led offense), is the continued horrible usage of wideout Tavon Austin. He caught three balls for 34 yards, but the staff decided it wise to use him—all 5'8" and 176 pounds of him—as a runner up the gut between the tackles.

So yes, Sunday's contest between the Rams and Buccaneers is a tad difficult to figure out.

As bad as McCown was at times last week, he is still better than anyone the Rams can trot out at the position. While his late-game heroics in a comeback effort speak more to his failures in the prior three quarters and change than anything else, he should be able to better find big-bodied wideouts Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson as timing continues to develop.

Smith's defense essentially gets a week of practice against a team without a quarterback or staff that know how to work around the talent in place.

Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Rams 14

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).