Complete Predictions for the 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup
The Chase is here. Now the question is where it goes from here—and where it ultimately winds up.
With a record-size field—expanded from its previous high of 12 drivers to 16 in this year's edition—NASCAR is taking a big gamble that the larger Chase for the Sprint Cup format with more drivers will mean larger at-track crowds and higher TV ratings.
Not only is the field larger for the 10-race playoff, but for the first time in the Chase's 11-year history, there will be elimination rounds after the third, sixth and ninth races.
That will all culminate in a one-race, four-driver, winner-take-all shootout in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Let's break down each of the 10 upcoming Chase races, as well as crown the driver we believe will win it all 10 weeks from now.
Chicagoland Speedway
1 of 14
Favorites to Win: Kevin Harvick (2001 and 2002), Brad Keselowski (2012) and Matt Kenseth (2013) have all won at CLS in the past. The 1.5-mile track plays to their respective strengths with high speed and offers plenty of room to pass; a win by any of them would start their Chase off on the right foot. Keselowski is a perfect example; he won the 2012 Chase opener at CLS and went on to win his first career Cup championship.
Who Needs It the Most: The drivers who made the Chase with just one win—among them Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola—need to show and prove that they not only belong in the Chase, but that they're legitimate contenders. Up to now, all three of those drivers have had mediocre seasons with the exception of the one win each thus far. If they think they can ride that one win all the way to a championship, they're sadly mistaken.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Jeff Gordon, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Why Jeff Gordon Wins: Having led the points for most of the regular season, not to mention showing a re-invigorated motivation and attitude, Gordon needs to set down a baseline to establish the fact that every other driver—including teammate Jimmie Johnson—will have to get past him if one is going to win the championship.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
2 of 14
Favorites to Win: This is both Joey Logano's favorite track and his home track on the Sprint Cup circuit. The flat one-mile track plays to the strengths of drivers like Logano, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin, all past winners there.
Who Needs It the Most: This is the key race of the first three in the Chase. If a Chase driver has a bad first effort at Chicagoland, he can ensure he remains in contention with a big comeback finish at NHMS. If a driver has a bad showing at both CLS and NHMS, you can pretty much put him on the list of drivers who will be eliminated after the third race.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Joey Logano, Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.
Why Joey Logano Wins: Logano has had an outstanding season to date. Regardless of what he does at Chicagoland, he has to show he indeed is true championship material in 2014, and the only way to do that is to play to his strengths at tracks that favor his style of racing such as NHMS, Martinsville and Phoenix (if he makes it that far in the three elimination rounds).
In fact, Logano may be on the verge of advancing even further, writes Reid Spencer of NASCAR Wire Service:
"Logano has been consistently fast this year as he grows into the talent fellow drivers have been touting since his teens. Logano has collected three of his six career wins this year, and the Chase schedule plays to his strength. If Logano survives the first two elimination rounds, and there's every expectation he will, he comes to tracks where he has excelled this season.
"
Dover International Speedway
3 of 14
Favorites to Win: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle. All three have won multiple times at Dover, with Johnson winning nine times, including the last two races there and six of the last 11 races on the fairly flat all-concrete oval.
Who Needs It the Most: This is without question the make-or-break race for drivers who have gotten off to bad starts in the first two Chase races. The reason is simple: If they don't make a massive swing to the good, they'll be among the first four drivers to be eliminated from the Chase after this race.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray.
Why Jeff Gordon Wins: This is where Gordon can start pulling away from the pack. He has a strong history at Dover and even though Jimmie Johnson will give him a run for his money, Gordon will persevere to win this one.
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Who Will Be Eliminated After the Challenger Round?
4 of 14
Eliminated: Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch are the first four that are eliminated from further advancement after Dover.
What Went Wrong: It's hard for drivers who came into the Chase with just one win (or zero wins, for that matter) to really have legitimate chances to advance into the second round. One win (or none) got them in, but there's no way one or none gets them much further than that.
Spoiler Potential: Of the four drivers we picked to be eliminated after the first round, Kurt Busch has the best likelihood to play the role of spoiler going forward into the second and third rounds. With the pressure of being unable to advance gone, Busch can go out and race just for wins and not have to worry about points or the championship title at that point.
Kansas Speedway
5 of 14
Favorites to Win: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick. We think this is where Johnson earns his first (and potentially only) win of the Chase. He's won there twice in the past. Gordon is always tough here, too.
Who Needs It the Most: Kevin Harvick. While he'll get past the first round, for Harvick to get to the third round and beyond, he'll have to come home with either a win or top-three finish. We feel very confident he does one or the other at Kansas.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle.
Why Jimmie Johnson Wins: Really? Do you really expect Johnson to go through the Chase without a win or more? Mile-and-a-half tracks are Johnson's bread and butter, and he definitely plans to add some jam to that at Kansas.
Charlotte Motor Speedway
6 of 14
Favorites to Win: Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick. Don't be surprised to find Jimmie Johnson in the final mix, as well, coming off of a win in this year's Coca-Cola 600.
Who Needs It the Most: Kahne needs to win to advance to the third round. Perhaps more so than any other driver on the Sprint Cup circuit, Kahne typically plays to his strengths at tracks where he's had success before. In other words, if it worked once, it'll work time and time again. For Kahne to move into the third round, he has to win at CMS. Otherwise, his season might be over.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson.
Why Kasey Kahne Wins: Kahne understands that if he's to move closer to his first Cup championship, he needs at least two wins in the Chase. This will be his first. But will there be a second in the remaining races?
Talladega Superspeedway
7 of 14
Favorites to Win: Ah yes, this is the mulligan track of the Chase. Anyone—no matter if it's a Chase contestant or someone who didn't even come close to making the playoffs—has a chance to win this one. It's so unpredictable that this could be one of the few races in the Chase where a Chase contestant doesn't take the checkered flag. Among the favorites we like: Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brian Vickers and even AJ Allmendinger.
Who Needs It the Most: Dale Earnhardt Jr. To prove that this has not been a fluke year, Earnhardt needs a fourth win—and then some in the remaining races—if he's to finally realize the potential of his first career Sprint Cup championship. Earnhardt used to all but own Talladega with five wins in an eight-race stretch from 2001 through 2004. Can lightning strike a sixth time, and the first time in a decade? Yes, we think it can for Junior—and oh, how the Junior Nation will rejoice if that indeed happens.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart and Danica Patrick (the surprise of the day).
Why Dale Earnhardt Jr. Wins: Junior has essentially become a non-entity at 'Dega in recent years, unlike the way he dominated the place back between 2001 and 2004. Junior needs to prove to himself and his fans that he's not only capable of winning at least a couple of races in the Chase, but that he has what it takes to continue on all the way to the championship.
Who Will Be Eliminated After the Contender Round?
8 of 14
Eliminated: Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, Greg Biffle and Joey Logano.
What Went Wrong: We expect to see a few surprise eliminations in this round. Essentially, Logano's good luck through much of this season up to this point ultimately runs out, Kenseth's failure to win a race up to this point ends his hopes, Biffle does his best but just can't make an impact among the other top drivers and Hamlin's up-and-down season will end on a downer after not advancing to Round 3.
Spoiler Potential: Of the four drivers we mentioned (as well as Kurt Busch after his elimination in the first round) that are eliminated after the second round, Logano is the guy we see as the biggest potential spoiler going forward. Not only will he be going for wins himself, but he also can be teammate Brad Keselowski's wingman in BK's quest for a second title in three seasons. We think Logano still has at least one more win in him this season after this point. The question is where?
Martinsville Speedway
9 of 14
Favorites to win: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards. Gordon and Johnson have had outstanding careers at Martinsville, including Gordon winning this race in last year's Chase. This could be the most pivotal race for the eight remaining Chase contestants. To get off to a strong start in Round 3 could mean the difference between making the final round or falling short.
Who Needs It the Most: Carl Edwards. Edwards has had a rough road of it over the last few Chases. Sure, he missed winning the championship in 2011 via a tiebreaker by Tony Stewart, but since then he failed to make the Chase in 2012 and finished at the bottom of the pile last year. While Edwards' career at Martinsville has not been very prosperous (20 starts, no wins, just one top-five and four other top-10s), this former short-track ace in his pre-NASCAR time will have to dig deep to be a legitimate threat to advance.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin.
Why Jeff Gordon Wins: This is where Gordon starts to pull away from Johnson and becomes the top threat to win the championship. Sure, the points will be reseeded after Phoenix, but if Gordon can win two or three races by that point—including Martinsville—he may force Johnson to make mistakes that not only will cost him wins, but also the championship as a whole.
Texas Motor Speedway
10 of 14
Favorites to Win: Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Texas is one of those few wide-open tracks in the Chase where anything can potentially happen (much like Talladega). With TMS hosting the third-from-the-last race in the Chase, every driver still in it will have to ratchet up his game significantly if he hopes to not only make it past the final elimination race (Phoenix) but to have a shot at winning it all at Homestead.
Who Needs It the Most: Drivers that do best on 1.5-mile tracks will likely excel at TMS. Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson all need at least a top-five finish to keep their momentum—and Chase hopes—rolling.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards.
Why Jeff Gordon Wins: While he can't do it statistically because the field will be reseeded after Phoenix, TMS is still where Gordon can start to lock things up for the championship. The biggest problem he'll face is the guys who are chasing him the closest and hardest. If Gordon can stay out of trouble crash-wise and his car holds up to the brutal wear-and-tear that TMS places upon it, Gordon should win his second, if not third race of the Chase at this point.
Phoenix International Raceway
11 of 14
Favorites to Win: Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and Joey Logano. This is where Logano can really shine as a spoiler, but it's also a place where Harvick and Gordon could have their closest battle of the Chase due to the unique one-mile track that both have been very successful at in their careers.
Who Needs It the Most: Kevin Harvick. At this point, we can pretty much see the writing on the wall as far as who will make the final round and who will fall short. Harvick needs a Hail Mary of some type to put him in the final field of four entering Homestead, and Phoenix is where he gets just that.
Predicted Top-Five Finish: Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, Joey Logano, Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Why Kevin Harvick Wins: Phoenix International Raceway has long been one of Harvick's favorite racetracks. He's won there consistently, and if he's to make the final round of the Chase, he needs another finish on top.
Who Will Be Eliminated After the Eliminator Round?
12 of 14
Eliminated: Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman.
What Went Wrong: While it may sound like a cliché, for Edwards, Keselowski, Kahne and Newman, time just ran out on them after Phoenix. They'll still wind up with respectable finishes in the overall Chase (between fifth and eighth place), but consistency throughout the Chase was an issue for all of them and it finally caught up with them.
Spoiler Potential: Brad Keselowski. Whoever wins the Sprint Cup championship will have to not only get past the guy who is crowned the eventual champion but also Keselowski. Falling short in the Chase will give Keselowski a nothing-to-lose mindset heading into Homestead. If he can't win the championship, he's going make sure he plays a part in making sure that a lot of other guys won't either.
Homestead-Miami Speedway
13 of 14
Odds for Each of the Remaining Four Drivers: Jeff Gordon 2-1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 5-1, Kevin Harvick 5-1 and Jimmie Johnson 6-1.
Chase History: Johnson has won six of the last eight Chase championships. Gordon, Earnhardt and Harvick have never won a Chase championship, although Gordon holds the distinction of winning four Winston Cup championships between 1995 and 2001.
History at Homestead: This is going to be uncharted territory for all of the four final Chase contestants. Up to now—and Jimmie Johnson has been the perfect example of this in his six previous championships—drivers have primarily just had to have a decent finish and not worry about winning the season finale.
That's a luxury that is no longer available with the new expanded format. Whoever wins this year's championship is going to have to win it, or at least take a top-five and hope that none of his other three challengers finish ahead of him. The biggest worry of all: a green-white-checker finish. We could potentially see what looks like a lock for one driver suddenly disappear, and a surprise driver rally from several spots back to win the race and the championship.
And the Winner Is...
14 of 14
Jeff Gordon.
As strong of a season as Dale Earnhardt Jr. has had, not to mention the sentimental hopes of Junior winning his first Cup crown in crew chief Steve Letarte's final season before becoming a TV analyst, sadly, this will not be Junior's year.
Nor will it be Jimmie Johnson's or Kevin Harvick's. Rather, this one goes to Gordon, who has raced this season with the kind of motivation, drive and consistency that befits someone ultimately becoming a champion. The "Drive for Five"—which is something Gordon has essentially been chasing since his fourth and last Cup crown to date in 2001—finally pays off.
And while this might be a good chance for Gordon to announce his retirement and ride off into the NASCAR sunset as a winner, forget that notion. If anything, the re-invigoration and motivation Gordon has experienced in 2014 will only serve to make him want to not only come back for a few more seasons but a few more championships, as well.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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