NFL Week 1 Picks: Overrated Favorites That Will Disappoint Based on Vegas Odds

The more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same. Sure, we only have one game to judge by so far, but the Seattle Seahawks look really good and the Green Bay Packers still have questions to answer outside of the quarterback position. 

While everyone will rightly sing the praises of the Seahawks for their effort on Thursday night, the rest of the league will either be in a celebratory mood or full-blown panic by the end of Monday night. What makes the start of football so unique is that everything changes on a weekly basis. 

We have an idea of teams that will contend for a Super Bowl and/or playoff spot, but until the games kick off all of the information we have is useless. No one knows this more than oddsmakers, whose sole purpose is trying to figure out what will happen week after week. 

Week 1 is the hardest time to set odds because the only information we have is based on preseason. There are favorites this week that stick out like sore thumbs, so we are going to burst the bubble of people who set the lines and tell you what to expect. 

Matchup	Prediction
New Orleans (-2.5) at Atlanta	Saints, 24-21
Cincinnati at Baltimore (Pick 'Em)	Bengals, 23-20
Buffalo at Chicago (-7.5)	Bills, 24-21
Washington at Houston (-3)	Washington, 23-17
Tennessee at Kansas City (-3)	Chiefs, 27-20
New England (-3.5) at Miami	Patriots, 31-17
Oakland at New York Jets (-5.5)	Jets, 20-10
Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-11)	Eagles, 31-14
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7)	Steelers, 27-17
Minnesota at St. Louis (-3)	Rams, 17-13
San Francisco (-4) at Dallas	49ers, 27-23
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-2)	Panthers, 24-17
Indianapolis at Denver (-9)	Broncos, 34-24
New York Giants at Detroit (-7)	Lions, 34-28
San Diego at Arizona (-3)	Chargers, 34-27

Washington at Houston Texans (-3)

Nick Wass/Associated Press

It's amazing how far both these franchises fell in one year. Washington and Houston were coming off playoff runs in 2012 and seemed poised to contend once again. Poor quarterback play for both teams, as well as issues on defense, doomed them in 2013. 

Now, with the Texans starting journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and boasting the potentially dominant pass-rushing duo J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, they start the year looking to end a 14-game regular-season losing streak against Washington. 

Washington underwent its share of changes in the offseason with Jay Gruden taking over as head coach and trying to unlock whatever it was that Robert Griffin III had as a rookie that was missing all last season. 

It's not a sexy matchup on paper because both teams have significant questions, but Washington has the ingredients on offense to withstand Houston's defensive line. The Texans were a below-average run defense last year, allowing the 10th-most yards (1,958). 

Washington has a potent running game with the underrated Alfred Morris, who ran for 1,275 yards and seven touchdowns last year with no help from the passing game. Jason Reid of The Washington Post talked about the importance of the rushing attack to set up Griffin:

"

Morris is a powerful runner. If Young and the line consistently clear the way for Morris on stretch-zone plays, a staple of the team’s offense the past four seasons, Houston’s defense likely would face problems — and Griffin would remain upright.

"

Right tackle Tyler Polumbus added, “We want to continue to do that well. As long as we’re running the ball, we’re going to have a chance.”

Once Washington establishes the run, forcing the Texans to respect it, the play-action passing game opens up with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon to stretch the field. 

Two years ago, Washington led the NFL with 169.3 yards per game on the ground and won the NFC East. That's got to be the formula for success, regardless of how good Griffin's arm looks in the pocket. 

Prediction: Washington 23, Houston 17

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2)

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

These odds aren't surprising when you consider that Tampa Bay made a lot of noise in the offseason by hiring Lovie Smith as head coach, signing Josh McCown to play quarterback after his five-game stint as a starter in Chicago and drafting Mike Evans. 

It's also not a surprise because everyone seems to agree that Carolina will regress this season after losing its top four receivers from last year and having a bad offensive line to protect Cam Newton, who is dealing with a hairline fracture in his ribs. 

Jeff Darlington of NFL.com reported on Friday that Newton was throwing the ball during practice sessions that were open to the media:

With Newton playing and the concerns about the receiving corps being overblown—tight end Greg Olsen, who lead the team in receptions, yards, touchdowns and 20-yard catches, is still there and rookie Kelvin Benjamin is a matchup nightmare—the onus is on Tampa Bay to prove it's going to take a step forward. 

The Buccaneers have their own problems, notably on the offensive line. They were able to address some of those concerns by acquiring Logan Mankins from New England, but he's 32 years old and B/R's Matt Miller noted that age and injuries have sapped some of his effectiveness protecting the quarterback:

"

He drops his head too often and allows defensive linemen to knock him to the side before rushing the pocket. Mankins needs to be less aggressive and focus more on establishing his base and winning with his hands.

...

Mankins appears to be fading physically. Injuries and age are likely contributing to that, but he needs to give up fewer sacks in 2014 if he is to maintain his high standing.

"

When you put a suspect offensive line in front of a quarterback who is stationary up against a pass rush that led the NFL with 60 sacks last season, you're asking for trouble. 

Even though McCown was terrific in limited action for the Bears last year, does anyone really think he's suddenly become good enough to start after spending 11 seasons primarily as a backup? Scott Mitchell looked good once starting in place of Dan Marino, but when he was given the reins to his own team in Detroit, the wheels came off. 

Before we start writing Carolina's eulogy, let's remember that this team still has one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and Newton is a playmaker extraordinaire. 

Prediction: Carolina 24, Tampa Bay 17

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (-3)

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

It's amazing that oddsmakers still favor Arizona simply because this game is in the desert. Look at everything the Cardinals will be missing in their first game:

Player	Reason
LB Daryl Washington	Suspended
DT Darnell Dockett	Injury
LB Karlos Dansby	Free Agency (Signed w/ Cleveland)
S Yeremiah Bell	Retired

On top of those changes, Tyrann Mathieu is still up in the air for Week 1 in his recovery from a torn ACL. Head coach Bruce Arians told Craig Morgan of Fox Sports Arizona that Thursday's practice session wasn't a good one for his second-year safety:

If Mathieu has to miss the game, Arizona will be without its top four tacklers from last year. On top of that, starting running back Andre Ellington is dealing with a foot injury that has left his status up in the air, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network:

That's not a good sign when you are going up against Philip Rivers. The San Diego quarterback has always been a lightning rod but turned a corner last season under head coach Mike McCoy. He set career highs in completions (378), completion percentage (69.5) and had his highest touchdown percentage (5.9) since 2008. 

This game is going to be a shootout because the Chargers secondary isn't exactly brimming with talent after allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL last year. But in a battle of two high-powered offensive teams, always take the one with the better quarterback. 

Prediction: San Diego 34, Arizona 27

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