How Good Can 2014 Breakout MLB Star Scooter Gennett Be?

The first-place Milwaukee Brewers have been an unexpected surprise this season, and the same goes for the team’s second baseman, Scooter Gennett.

Scooter, whose real name is Ryan Joseph Gennett, is in the midst of an under-the-radar breakout season, as he currently leads all National League second basemen with at least 320 plate appearances in batting average (.301), slugging percentage (.475) and OPS (.813).

Gennett’s combined success between the last two seasons has him pegged as the Brewers’ long-term second baseman, especially with Rickie Weeks set to leave as a free agent after the season. He’s still relatively young, at 24, and has room to improve, but the early return on Gennett’s brief career suggests he’s for real.

Overall, the left-handed-hitting Gennett has now played 160 games since arriving in the major leagues last year, which is essentially a complete season.

	PA	R	2B	HR	BB%	K%	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
2013	230	29	11	6	4.3%	18.3%	.380	.324	.356	.479	130
2014	326	42	22	8	5.5%	14.7%	.335	.301	.339	.475	121
Total	556	71	33	14	5.0%	16.2%	.353	.311	.346	.477	125

According to FanGraphs, Gennett’s .822 OPS, .356 wOBA and 125 wRC+ rank second among all second basemen—trailing only Matt Carpenter (.833 OPS, .367 wOBA, 137 wRC+)—with at least 500 plate appearances dating back to 2013.

However, Gennett’s production does come with the caveat that the Brewers have mostly protected him from left-handed pitching in the major leagues, with most of his at-bats coming against righties.

Gennett fared well against same-side pitching during his first year of pro ball in 2010, but his production has since steadily declined to the point where he’s basically a platoon option—albeit a very good one.

Year	Level	PA	XBH	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
2010	A	125	10	11	23	.330	.395	.455
2011	A+	164	5	9	24	.282	.325	.342
2012	AA	167	10	6	30	.241	.271	.335
2013	AAA/MLB	190	9	5	41	.235	.262	.330
2014	MLB	37	1	1	10	.118	.143	.147

However, what I like most about Gennett is his ability to hit high-end right-handed pitching. The following stats give an idea about what I’m referring to, though keep in mind they are based on a small sample of plate appearances this season.

Pitcher	Stats
Ervin Santana	2-for-4, 2B
Julio Teheran	2-for-6
Clay Buchholz	1-for-2, 2B, 2 RBI
Jeff Samardzija	2-for-4, 2 2B
Masahiro Tanaka	1-for-2, 2B, RBI
Gerrit Cole	3-for-6, 2B
Andrew Cashner	1-for-2, 3B, RBI
Stephen Strasburg	2-for-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI

There is a possibility Gennett will regress during the second half, but not as much as one might expect. The 24-year-old has improved both his walk and strikeout rates this season compared to his rookie campaign (4.3 BB%, 18.3 K% vs. 5.5 BB%, 14.7 K%), and he’s done so while maintaining a batting average and batting average on balls in play that are in line with his career averages.

Overall, Gennett has posted an fWAR (FanGraphs' version of the stat) of 4.0 through his first 160 games, which I believe is probably his ceiling moving forward. Plus, the fact that Gennett will be protected from southpaws in a platoon role (at least that’s how it looks as of now) gives him the potential to be a consistent two-plus-win player at the keystone.