UFC 100 Lesnar VS Mir: Analysis

The main event for UFC 100 this Saturday is an intriguing matchup between 3-1 UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and 12-3 Interim champion Frank Mir in a title unification bout resulting in the Undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship.

These two fighters squared off at UFC 81, which was Lesnar's first fight in the UFC. Mir submitted Lesnar with a kneebar one minute 30 into the first round. Both fighters have grown since then, recording their biggest wins of their careers. Lesnar beat Couture at UFC 91 and Mir beat Nog at UFC 92.

So obviously both fighters have evolved since UFC 81. Lesnar seems to get better at every aspect of his game. Every fight he has, his striking has improved, his takedowns have improved his octagon intelligence has improved, whether or not his jiu-jitsu has improved is not know as it wasn't tested against Herring or Couture.

Mir has greatly improved in both boxing technique and work ethic. Mir is considered to be in the best shape of his life and his knockout of Nogueira shows how his boxing has improved.

The best way to analyse the matchup would be to evaluate who has the upperhand in different aspects of the fight: striking, takedown/takedown defence, ground game, conditioning, and experience.

Striking: Frank Mir was never known for his striking, but in his recent fight against Minatauro Nogueria he displayed solid combinations that rocked the Pride veteran and resulted in multiple knockdowns and the eventual knockout in the second round.

But Mir's combinations although an improvement technically from his earlier fights were extremely basic and extremely predictable, especially his right, left, uppercut combo. Lesnar showed his true punching power against Heath Herring and Randy Couture, and especially in the Randy Couture fight he showed that his punches didn't need to fully connect to hurt.

A certainty is that Greg Nelson has been working with Brock on his striking to capatalise on Mirs biggest weakness.

Verdict: Lesnar has one-punch knockout power which Mir lacks (shows in the Nog fight when he should have finished him way earlier) which gives the advantage to Lesnar.

Takedown/Takedown defence: Brock Lesnar is a former NCAA wrestling champion, and unsurprisingly, wrestling is his MMA foundation and his main strength. He uses his unique combination of excellent technique, amazing speed (for his size) and almost superhuman strength to out-wrestle more experienced opponents (Randy Couture).

Mir is not known for his takedown and especially not known for takedown defence, mostly because he allows opponents to take him down so he can utilise his deadly guard.

Whether or not Mir will try to defend Brock's takedown is hard to predict. He could either try to submit Brock from his guard or do anything he can to stay on his feet and avoid hammerfists like their first encounter. But most likely, if Brock wants to take the fight to the ground (big if), he will be able to.

Verdict: Brock has a massive advantage in the wrestling department but that could also play into Mirs hands.

Ground Game: Brock's ground game has never been seen in the octagon, except maybe the split second he tried to pass guard against Mir in their first fight (and we all know how that went).

I'm sure that has been one of the main focuses of his training but I still doubt his technique and ability on the ground will come anywhere near to Mir's, and Mir should be able to do what he wants on the ground.

Mir's jiu-jitsu is well known (ask Tim Sylvia) and is his main strength, seven of his 12 wins have came by submission including one over his opponent Brock Lesnar. Lesnar's disadvantage on the ground is as plain to see as Mir's disadvantage in the weightroom.

Verdict: As one sided as the wrestling but the other way,  advantage for Mir.

Conditioning: Frank Mir's conditioning has always been his biggest question mark, his supposed lack of effort in training and the subsequent fatigue in the octagon have been well documented.

But he appears to have turned a corner, all signs from his camp suggest that he is training as hard as ever for this fight, but in my opinion, I will believe it when I see it.

Although Brock weights in just under 300lbs his conditioning  is very good, at no point in his short professional career has he looked totally gassed but the possibility of a 25-minute war and the chance to avenge his only loss will surely motivate him to step up his conditioning.

Verdict: Both fighters seem to have the best conditioning of their lives, but due to a history of being gassed, I give the edge to Lesnar (although I wouldn't be surprised if they were both gassed after the third round).

Experience: Lesnar is one of the least experienced champions in UFC history—he has only four professional fights (three in the UFC). But every one of his fights have been either the main event or the co-main event, which is more than Lyoto Machida, so he is experienced at the biggest stage.

Frank Mir has only 15 professional fights which isn't a lot considering how long he has been fighting for because of the motorcycle accident. But Mir is greatly experienced in those fights and is 2-0 when fighting for a belt.

Verdict: Mir is easily more experienced and that experience should help him in this fight.

Lesnar's gameplan coming into the fight will be to keep it on the feet, he doesn't want to risk the fight by putting Mir on his back, Lesnar should look to be more cautious and not get caught up in the moment if he knocks Mir down (like he did in the first fight).

Lesnar will look to impose his power advantage on Mir by clinching him a lot against the cage and using dirty boxing to rough him up, building up Mir to be hit with a power shot from further away.

Mir's plan will be simple get the fight to the ground as soon and as often as possible, Mir is in his element on the ground, while Lesnar isn't and therefore is at an immediate disadvantage. Mir should look to not exert himself too much in the first round because of his history of conditioning problems.

Prediction: I predict a very tentative first round from both fighters and I expect a total stand up affair, I think Lesnar will eventually knock Mir down and the fight will be decided by what he does next, if he rushes in like the first fight I can see the same result, if he takes his time I can see him beating Mir.

My prediction: Lesnar by TKO towards the end of Round Two.

Please feel free to leave any comments.