Debating Magglio Ordonez

I’m not going to argue the Tigers should release Magglio Ordonez. I’m not going to argue they shouldn’t. But sometimes when reading forums or comments, here or elsewhere, I think an incomplete picture of the player is painted, so I thought I’d try to paint a better one. Thus, it follows.

In baseball, there’s always talk about five-tool players. Simplified, that’s hitting for average, hitting for power, running speed, fielding ability, and arm strength. (Personally, I like to replace “hitting for average” with “ability to get on base” and add in the ability to take walks, but that’s not part of the traditional five.)

So, how does Ordonez stack up on the tools?

• Ability to get on base — Lifetime average of .311, this year’s average is .275. Lifetime on-base  percentage is .370, this year it’s .349. I think it’s safe to say Ordonez still knows how to get himself on base. Even during his “slump” in May-June he ran up what, a 17-game hitting streak? So he clearly excels here still.
• Hitting for power — You could look at slugging percentage, which is really just an average of total bases per at bat. But then you’re including singles into the equation and rewarding Maggs for having contact. I look at isolated power here. Quick explanation: a batter who hits 25-for-100 has a .250 batting average, but if those are all doubles, he has .500 slugging percentage and .250 isolated power. Lifetime, Ordonez has an ISO of .202. (To compare, Placido Polanco’s is .111, Miguel Cabrera’s is .232 and Marcus Thames‘ is .282.) His career at-bats per home run is 22.5. (Cabrera’s is 18.5.) So again, I think it’s safe to say Ordonez has been a power hitter for his career. You didn’t need stats to know that, of course.
• Here’s the thing that’s disconcerting: Even last year his AB/HR (26.7) and ISO (.176) were among the worst of his career, other than 2005 when he was frequently injured. This season, both numbers are career worsts: 111 AB/HR and .068 ISO. Given this is not just a one-year occurrence, I believe it’s safe to say Ordonez is not a real power hitter any more. Is he as bad as he’s been this season? That’s hard saying. Probably not THAT bad. But I don’t think you can expect him to bounce back to the player he used to be.
• Speed — OK, I don’t have any stats to back me up on this one. But I don’t think anyone would debate what the eye tells you: he’s not fast. He seems sorta like a catcher when he’s going around the base paths.
• Fielding ability — The eye tells you he’s bad. He’s really not bad though. He’s not good either. Just a bit below average. In comparison to the players on the Tigers’ bench, I’d choose Don Kelly, Josh Anderson or, my top pick, Clete Thomas, to be in right field. He clearly does not have the range to get to balls hit to left field, probably thanks to his speed but also thanks to some bad routes he’s taken to the ball. It’s hard to find a stat to describe Ordonez’s fielding, but range runs is one stat. He’s 1.2 runs worse than the average fielder. (Anderson is -1.0, Clete Thomas +1.4). The more traditional stat, his fielding percentage is a carer .986 and he’s at .965 this year. So OK, he rates as a below-average outfielder, but not greatly so.
• Throwing ability — Ordonez rates as -0.3 on his ARM rating, so again he’s slightly below average. The eye test tells me he’s got a decent arm though. So make of that what you will. I guess it’s average. He has two outfield assists this season, he’s typically in the 5-10 range for the year.

So there you go. The picture of Ordonez that gives me is a capable hitter, but one who isn’t going to give Thames or Cabrera (or Inge?!) a run for their money when it comes to extra-base hits. He holds his own in the outfield.

He doesn’t make a lot of flashy plays, but he doesn’t make a lot of big mistakes either. Runners can try to advance on him, but he’ll definitely throw some out.

He is still capable of contributing to a baseball team in contention. But if you compare him to other right fielders, maybe the picture of how much he contributes changes a bit. His on-base percentage ranks as seventh-best in the American League among qualified right fielders (which he is not, due to also spending some time at DH).

His slugging of .354 is 38th among all right fielders and would be 10th or worse among qualified right fielders. It is 70 points behind Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Shoo, who ranks ninth. His two stolen bases are a non-starter. His 24 RBIs, too, ranks last compared to the nine qualified right fielders.

Last year’s numbers would put Ordonez around the fringes of the upper third in both slugging and on-base percentage in today’s AL.

Basically, what I’m getting at there, is that when you compare Ordonez to the production typically found at his position, he pales this year, and though it’s reasonable to expect for him to see some rebound from his poor start to the season, he’s still at best a league-average right fielder. And he does not make up for it with his fielding ability.

Great players keep putting up big stats in their 40s. (Apparently, so do a lot of players who were previously pretty good but kept using steroids, say Barry Bonds.) That’s how they set such high career marks. Good players play until their mid 30s. Average players may stick around until 30. And mediocre players have a couple of seasons in their 20s.

Ordonez is 35. He’s had a pretty nice career, and he’s given a baseball-loving peoples around the state of Michigan memories that will last a life time.

Maybe, at age 35, it’s fair to say he’s not going to put up the kinds of numbers he did in 2006 and 2007. For most players, the dropoff becomes a bit steeper as you age. Maybe, this is the player he is today.

There’s nothing wrong with that. He just has to be played accordingly.

What do you think?