Kentucky Derby 2014 Odds: Early Payout Projections for Churchill Downs Field
The 2014 Kentucky Derby will kick up mud on Saturday at the center of arguably the fanciest event in American sports. However, both the haves and have-nots will lay money on the line as the ballyhooed race projects to be a wide-open run this year.
Here are updated odds for the event, as well as the recent history of payouts and an exotic choice to beef up speculative superfectas.
Where: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
TOP NEWS
Kyle Busch's Cause of Death Released
Report: MLB Vet Unretires After 1 Day
Saturday Night Main Event Live Grades 🔠
When: Saturday, May 3; post time approx. 6:24 p.m. ET
Watch: 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. ET on NBC
Stream: NBC Live Extra
| California Chrome | 11-4 |
| Wicked Strong | 7-1 |
| Danza | 9-1 |
| Hoppertunity | 10-1 |
| Samraat | 16-1 |
| Intense Holiday | 18-1 |
| Dance With Fate | 20-1 |
| Ride On Curlin | 20-1 |
| Vicar's In Trouble | 20-1 |
| Wildcat Red | 20-1 |
| Candy Boy | 25-1 |
| Tapiture | 28-1 |
| Social Inclusion | 33-1 |
| General A Rod | 33-1 |
| Chitu | 33-1 |
| We Miss Artie | 40-1 |
| Medal Count | 40-1 |
| Uncle Sigh | 40-1 |
| Commanding Curve | 40-1 |
| Vinceremos | 50-1 |
| Pablo Del Monte | 50-1 |
| Harry's Holiday | 50-1 |
(All odds courtesy of Oddsshark.com as of 12 p.m. ET on April 29.)
Payouts
Predicting Derby payouts is known to be a vexing experience. In 2005, a 50-1 long shot named Giacomo pulled off the second-largest upset in race history, and an even longer shot in Closing Argument (72-1) came in just shy of the winner. Among the favorites, only Afleet Alex (9-2) showed.
For bettors, each Run for the Roses brings a balancing act. Favorites are more likely to win, but the payout is not nearly as lucrative. And increasingly, 2014's race appears to heavily favor exotics as the path to a big payday.
With no overwhelming favorite and a lot of parity throughout the field, plenty of bettors will be slapping down small-dollar trifectas and superfectas in bunches, hoping for that huge payout.
| Horse (Year) | Win | Place | Show |
| Orb (2013) | $12.80 | $7.40 | $5.40 |
| Golden Soul (2013) | $38.60 | $19.20 | |
| Revolutionary (2013) | $5.40 | ||
| I'll Have Another (2012) | $32.60 | $13.80 | $9.00 |
| Bodemeister (2012) | $6.20 | $5.60 | |
| Dullahan (2012) | $7.20 | ||
| Animal Kingdom (2011) | $43.80 | $19.60 | $13.00 |
| Nehro (2011) | $8.80 | $6.40 | |
| Mucho Macho Man (2011) | $7.00 |
California Chrome
For 2014, California Chrome remains the favorite in the week leading up to the race and he understandably leads the field in points, per KentuckyDerby.com.
However, the horse trained by 77-year-old veteran Art Sherman does not offer the pedigree to inspire the confidence worthy of a favorite. His sire, Lucky Pulpit, had not produced a horse to win a race longer than one-and-one-16th miles, per Laurie Ross at Horse Racing Nation.
However, California Chrome raced to victory in the Santa Anita Derby on a track that measures one-and-one-eighth miles. While this horse has the look of a Derby winner, the payoff is hardly worth backing this favorite.
Hoppertunity
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's horses have enjoyed great success on the track, and Hoppertunity represents his best hope of a win this year.
Baffert actually renamed the horse from the admittedly underwhelming moniker "Anyway U Way." As he told Jonathan Lintner of the Louisville Courier-Journal about the new name, "I think it has a pretty good ring to it. It seems to be catching on. It’s a great Hoppertunity to try and win the Derby."
It seems from his pun that marketing opportunities have already flooded Baffert's brain, but while Hoppertunity stands as a good outside shot to win, a long-standing trend is working against him.
As noted by the Kansas City Star's Alicia Wincze Hughes: "History would seem to decree that Hoppertunity is going to get hit with a reality that has been in existence for 132 years this Saturday. Not since Apollo in 1882 has a horse who did not race as a 2-year-old win the Kentucky Derby, a list of futility that includes future champions such as Forego (1973) and Curlin (2007)."
The Derby favors experience, something Hoppertunity is short on, and not even Baffert can impart that. However, the mix of potential and ability make this horse a pretty good bet to place.
Commanding Curve
Commanding Curve is the ultimate in exotics. He barely even cracked the Derby field and only got in because of a scratch.
His third-place finish in the Grade II Louisiana Derby flashed some potential, and squeaking into the field put Commanding Curve on long odds. A third-place finish this time around could yield big bucks for gamblers in the know.
For those looking to win big on a $2 trifecta or superfecta, Commanding Curve has quickly become a bettor's darling.
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
