NBA Draft 2014: Stock Up, Stock Down Prior to Underclassmen Declaration Deadline

Minus a few high-profile stragglers (hi, Jabari Parker), the overwhelming majority of underclassmen considering the 2014 NBA draft have already made up their minds. And outside of a few rare exceptions, a majority of them have decided they're ready to take it to the next level.

Since the last time we checked in with the big board a couple weeks ago, only a certain Dukie has held out from throwing his hat into the NBA draft. (As I said on Twitter, I'm counting Kentucky's Julius Randle as being a lock to enter his name. As Jeff Goodman of ESPN and others have pointed out, it's going to happen.)

What's more, Croatian forward Dario Saric—seemingly having ruled out entering the draft a few weeks ago (subscription required)—is now back in play. Saric recently hired Misko Raznatovic to serve as his new representation. Raznatovic told DraftExpress that not only were reports of him agreeing to a contract with Turkish club Anadolu Efes "false information," but that Saric will enter his name within the next week.

"Dario will declare for the 2014 draft in the next seven days for sure, what's a logical step after the best season in his career," Raznatovic said. "He was voted the best young player in Europe by FIBA, as well as MVP of the Adriatic League."

Petr David Josek

It is possible that Saric will pull his name out of the draft. Raznatovic indicated that he expects his client to get top-10 consideration, which is about the top possible mark within his current draft range.

Nonetheless, even the possibility that Saric will be there in June mucks up an already deep and talented draft. The notion that this class was wildly overrated is going to dissipate in the coming weeks once scouts have a chance to watch more film. Parker, Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid are three franchise-changing talents in the right situation, and digging throughout the class, we might find 15-20 long-term NBA starters. 

Just because Wiggins wasn't LeBron James reincarnated does not mean he's a bad prospect. We'll hopefully start to see the narrative spinning in a more positive direction soon.

With that in mind, let's check in with the latest big board, updated to reflect players who committed to return to school. We'll also note some of the biggest trends, both positive and negative, at the moment.

Rank	Player	School	Class	Position
1	Andrew Wiggins	Kansas	Freshman	SF
2	Joel Embiid	Kansas	Freshman	C
3	Jabari Parker	Duke	Freshman	SF
4	Dante Exum	Australia	N/A	PG/SG
5	Julius Randle	Kentucky	Freshman	PF
6	Aaron Gordon	Arizona	Freshman	PF
7	Noah Vonleh	Indiana	Freshman	PF
8	Marcus Smart	Oklahoma State	Sophomore	PG
9	Gary Harris	Michigan State	Sophomore	SG
10	Doug McDermott	Creighton	Senior	SF
11	Rodney Hood	Duke	Sophomore	SF
12	Dario Saric	Croatia	N/A	PF
13	Adreian Payne	Michigan State	Senior	PF
14	Tyler Ennis	Syracuse	Freshman	PG
15	Nik Stauskas	Michigan	Sophomore	SG
16	Zach LaVine	UCLA	Freshman	PG/SG
17	James Young	Kentucky	Freshman	SF
18	Kyle Anderson	UCLA	Sophomore	SF
19	Clint Capela	Switzerland	N/A	PF
20	Jerami Grant	Syracuse	Sophomore	SF
21	T.J. Warren	North Carolina State	Sophomore	SF
22	Jusuf Nurkic	Bosnia	N/A	C
23	Mario Hezonja	Croatia	N/A	SG
24	Cleanthony Early	Wichita State	Senior	SF
25	Aaron Harrison	Kentucky	Freshman	SG
26	K.J. McDaniels	Clemson	Junior	SF
27	Glenn Robinson III	Michigan	Sophomore	SF
28	P.J. Hairston	North Carolina	Junior	SG
29	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut	Senior	PG
30	Jarnell Stokes	Tennessee	Junior	PF

Stock Up

Nik Stauskas (SG, Michigan): Doug McDermott was the better college player by a mile and deserves to be drafted higher, but I'm starting to wonder if Stauskas won't be the better NBA player. The 6'6" shooting guard knows who he is as a player—McDermott is going to have to move away from his beloved post game almost entirely—and is a really versatile offensive player. I'd still take McDermott in a vacuum and feel good about it. They're just closer than what I was giving credit a few weeks ago. (Note: I compare Stauskas and McDermott because they're the class's two best shooters and grade similarly shaky on the defensive end. McDermott is a 3, Stauskas a 2.)

Zach LaVine (PG/SG, UCLA): We might as well prepare ourselves for the wave of LaVine love that's coming. He's going to destroy workouts. Listed at 6'5" and 180 pounds, LaVine is a jump-out-of-the-gym athlete with a smooth stroke and strong ball-handling skills. LaVine and Dante Exum are in that weird middle ground where they could probably oscillate between the 2 and 1 because of their size and not skip a beat. LaVine is the type of player scouts talk themselves into as the draft process goes along. Just don't watch too much of the college tape, or you'll see how far he has to go. 

Sergio Hentschel/Getty Images

P.J. Hairston (SG, North Carolina): I may or may not already be regretting keeping Hairston with a late-first-round grade. The former Tar Heel, whose college career abruptly ended due to eligibility issues, just concluded a 26-game stint with the D-League's Texas Legends. Hairston averaged 21.8 points per game, hit a solid-enough 35.8 percent from deep and showed the impressive polish that made him a potential ACC Player of the Year pick before the trouble. I'm not sold on Hairston's defense—the Legends were markedly worse when he was on the floor—and every meeting with teams will be a game of 20 questions. But the talent is there.

Shabazz Napier (PG, Connecticut): Napier might be the one man on the planet who wishes the draft would skip all the unnecessary workout nonsense and just happen tomorrow. It could be the difference between being a first-round pick and fighting for a guaranteed deal. If the draft were held today, on the back of Napier's heroic NCAA tournament performance, I don't see him getting out of the top 25. Once that memory fades and teams remember he's a deeply flawed prospect, he'll probably move back into the second round. For now, it's all smiles and NCAA insults for Mr. Napier. 

Stock Down

Adreian Payne (PF, Michigan State): Willie Cauley-Stein and Montrezl Harrell's respective decisions to stay in school help Payne to stay at No. 13. I admittedly have a stronger positive opinion on Payne than most, and keeping him with a lottery grade is a bit of a risk. Payne was dreadful at times in Michigan State's Elite Eight loss to Connecticut. His refusal to bang in the paint or beat the Huskies' opposing bigs off the dribble was befuddling. It was as if he heard the praise of his jump shooting and decided that was his one and only skill. But I'm going to avoid the overreaction theatre. Payne would be No. 15, though, had Cauley-Stein and Harrell stuck around.

Kyle Anderson (SF, UCLA): Like Payne, Anderson doesn't so much nosedive on the board as he does stagnate during a time where he could have moved up. Anderson is heady, rebounds well for his position and might be the draft's best passer regardless of position. And may we remind you he's a 6'9" small forward. Anderson possesses a ton of awesome throwback skills that make you root for someone so uniquely talented. But he's also a below-average athlete and shooter, and he's someone who will probably be a defensive liability from the moment he steps on an NBA floor. Teams can deal with a defensive liability who can also shoot. I'm not so sure they'll be as patient with one who can't.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

T.J. Warren (SF, North Carolina State): My evaluation on Warren hasn't changed all that much. His place respective to his fellow classmen just needed some tweaking. Warren is a strong volume-scoring threat at the next level, peaking as a potential starter or first forward off the bench. He's never going to get the amount of touches he did in college, but if he winds up averaging around 10-15 points per game and rebounding well for his position, you'll remember his mid-first-round selection fondly. But the downside of Warren is that he's a defensive sieve who never finds consistency in his outside shot and proves unable to adjust his game from the physicality he displayed at N.C. State.

Nick Johnson (SG, Arizona): Johnson hasn't been listed anywhere near my Top 30 all year, and the tepid reaction to his decision to forgo his senior season should tell you all you need to know. He was a leader all season for Arizona and a solid-enough shooter, but he's a late-second-round pick with a limited ceiling. Coming back for one more year could have helped Johnson at least slide into the early second or maybe even late first in a weaker class. As it stands, he's going to really be fighting these next couple of months.

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