Breaking Down Real Madrid's Champions League Semi-Final Opponents Bayern Munich
Following Friday’s draw in Nyon, Switzerland, Real Madrid know that their Champions League semi-final opponents will be Bayern Munich, the holders and current favourites, as per Oddschecker, for this year’s competition.
It was the hardest draw Madrid could have received in their quest for La Decima and is one that will reunite them with ex-player Arjen Robben and former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola, who is now in charge of the German champions.
Real Madrid director Emilio Butragueno is certainly under no illusions as to the difficulty of the task that awaits Los Blancos.
Madrid have been eliminated at this stage in each of the past three seasons, losing to Barcelona in 2011, Bayern in 2012 and Borussia Dortmund in 2013. They have, as per UEFA, won 12 and lost 12 of their previous 24 Champions League/European Cup semi-finals.
Bayern have had the upper hand in previous meetings between the sides in European competition, having won 11 of the 20 encounters. Madrid have prospered on seven occasions, while the other two matches ended in draws.
After eliminating German opposition in both the round of 16 (Schalke) and the quarter-finals (Borussia Dortmund), Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti will know that a stiffer test awaits in the final four. Bayern have already wrapped up the Bundesliga title and are truly formidable opponents, with quality players in all areas of the pitch.
Guardiola inherited a treble-winning side when he took over from Jupp Heynckes last summer, but he has gradually put his own stamp on the team, moving them away from the swift, counter-attacking style of Heynckes to a more possession-based approach in which control is paramount.
In the Bundesliga, Bayern’s average share of possession is up from 63.6 percent last season to 71.3 percent in the current campaign. It is a similar story in the Champions League, with their share of possession during the knockout stages having increased from 54.7 percent last year to 69.3 percent this season, both per WhoScored.com.
Philip Lahm has proved central to Guardiola’s plans. The right-back, whom Guardiola has described, as per Inside Futbol, as “one of the most intelligent players in the world,” has flourished in a new defensive midfield role. His excellent decision-making and astute distribution have seen him become the metronome of the side.
Guardiola’s team may not be as viscerally thrilling as last year’s side, but Bayern still carry a significant goal threat. Mario Mandzukic is their top-scorer in the Bundesliga, but Thomas Mueller, Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and Mario Goetze have each notched eight or more goals, and Bayern’s shots have also been evenly spread between them, as per WhoScored.com.
After watching his central axis of defensive midfielder Xabi Alonso and centre-backs Pepe and Sergio Ramos struggle to deal with the pace and movement of Borussia Dortmund’s attackers over both legs of the quarter-final, Ancelotti may be forced into a tactical reshuffle to deal with the similar threat posed by Bayern.
Guardiola is known to be an obsessive tinkerer. It is this compulsion to innovate and improve that made him an attractive choice for Bayern, but his changes can, as Michael Cox wrote in The Guardian following Bayern’s quarter-final victory over Manchester United, cause more problems for his own team than the opposition.
With Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martinez suspended and Thiago Alcantara injured, Guardiola utilised an unusual 2-3-2-3 formation in the first half of that match. It was successful in some aspects but not in others and it was only once Bayern reverted to last season’s 4-2-3-1 formation that they scored the goals required to seal their progress.
He is unlikely to experiment to the same degree against Madrid and will be particularly wary of the pace and power of Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale on the counter-attack. Bayern have conceded just 0.64 goals per match across the Bundesliga and Champions League this season (author calculation), but they have occasionally looked susceptible to quick breaks.
There are, however, few other chinks in their armour and although Madrid have sufficient quality to believe themselves capable of making it through to the final, their position as 5/4 underdogs, as per Oddschecker, reflects the fact that Bayern are the most likely victors.
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