Masters Predictions 2014: Early Picks and Projections for Augusta

There have been seven different champions in as many years at the Masters, so the beginning of the 2014 major season at Augusta National Golf Club should continue that trend of unpredictability.

Whether the pristine Georgia venue facilitates a breakthrough for an elite player or sees a seasoned, major-winning veteran rise to the occasion again, it promises to host quality golf from a deep field. Only three times has the previous winner gone back to back, and Adam Scott will seek to make it four.

But there's plenty on the line for Scott as he tries to retain the green jacket, even if he's ultimately unsuccessful. Golf rankings expert Alan Robison points out how a two-way tie for third or better this week would vault the Aussie into No. 1 in the world past the idle, injured Tiger Woods:

Given that Scott hasn't missed a cut this season, he figures to be a factor on the weekend—along with countless other top-tier golfers. Scott is listed by VegasInsider.com as a 10-1 co-favorite along with Rory McIlroy.

Below is a breakdown of some early projections and some bold predictions as to who should be challenging for the top prize on Masters Sunday.

Note: For the complete list of the field, visit Masters.com. All statistics are courtesy of PGATour.com.

Early Picks and Projections

Players Likely to Shine in Masters Debuts

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth are the young guns that headline this bunch. As a product of Augusta State and a three-time winner in less than a year and a half on the PGA Tour, the 23-year-old Reed has all the tools—and extraordinary confidence—to get the job done in his first stroll down Magnolia Lane.

Just four players in history have won three times before their first major start. Reed is the first since the legendary Sam Snead, per PGATour.com's official Twitter account:

The potential future of American golf is Spieth, but he's coming off a missed cut at the Shell Houston Open. Not exactly the way he wanted to enter his first Masters.

As a 20-1 shot, though, oddsmakers aren't giving up on Spieth to become the youngest Masters winner ever at age 20.

Another name to watch for is Victor Dubuisson, who was runner-up to Jason Day at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. Having a great short game is key on and around the incredibly difficult Augusta greens.

These miracle shots, where he converted the putts thereafter, from that event show how incredible Dubuisson is in that area:

Also don't sleep on FedEx Cup points leader Jimmy Walker, a three-time winner on tour this year already.

The clear pick for low amateur has to be Matthew Fitzpatrick, who is No. 2 in the amateur rankings and left Northwestern after just one semester to focus on golf.

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Fitzpatrick was low amateur at the 2013 Open Championship, has an incredible short game and the modest length of Augusta will help his cause. His swing coach, Mike Walker, noted that Fitzpatrick doesn't have a lot of holes in his game.

Walker said, per ESPN.com's Farrell Evans:

"

He's not as short off the tee as people think. Because it's a slightly lower ball flight, it can be misleading. His greatest strength is that he doesn't really have a weakness. He's one of those golfers that doesn't do a lot wrong.

"

Limiting mistakes is pivotal in a major, and it's something Fitzpatrick had early exposure to at the British Open. With more time to practice than ever and a pure focus on his amateur career, Fitzpatrick should bring his best to Augusta.

Elite Players Who Should Challenge for Green Jacket

Patric Schneider

With so many talented golfers to choose from, it might just be easiest to call out some standout individuals who, if they don't win, will be right in the thick of things in the final round.

At the most recent Shell Houston Open, Sergio Garcia posted a respectable third-place finish. Long considered one of the game's premier talent, the Spanish sensation hasn't capitalized on his ability enough to win a major title.

Perhaps this could finally be the time Garcia breaks through. This stat from PGATour.com's Sean Martin shows how consistent Garcia has been of late:

But until Garcia performs a little more consistently on golf's biggest stages, it's hard to count him among the legitimate favorites. He did finish tied for eighth in the 2013 Masters, though.

Other names to watch for include Ian Poulter and Bill Haas. Neither played well last week, with Poulter missing the cut and Haas finishing tied for 37th in Humble.

Chris O'Meara

Neither have performed well most of the time in majors past, but Poulter is a Ryder Cup dynamo with two Masters top-10 finishes in his past three appearances, and Haas is a past FedEx Cup champion whose best Masters finish was a tie for 20th a year ago. This could be the week that one of these decorated pros is due to make good on his promise. Expect them to be in contention despite a track record to the contrary.

One other dark-horse candidate to watch for is Rickie Fowler. He's won just once in his career, but he's still young and is figuring out how to contend for more trophies at the biggest tournaments.

Golf Channel's Jason Sobel noted Fowler's strong effort at the Shell Houston Open:

Fowler wound up finishing sixth, which shows the tweaks to his swing under Butch Harmon's tutelage may be paying dividends at the perfect time.

The young star was impeccable from tee to green in Humble, so if he can roll in a few putts—his biggest source of struggles this season—Fowler should be a threat.

Top Favorites and Predicted Champion

Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

Winning the third leg of the career Grand Slam seems like a tall order, but McIlroy can do it. His two previous major triumphs came by eight strokes apiece, with his first being at the 2011 U.S. Open.

That came not long after McIlroy blew a four-stroke lead at that year's Masters and imploded in the final round. After extended struggles through 2013, McIlroy is back on track after a final-round 65 led him to a tie for seventh this past week.

Check out these numbers from ESPN's Justin Ray, which may portend more success for McIlroy:

Another player who's been knocking on the door a lot lately is Matt Kuchar. The 2012 winner of the Players Championship—considered golf's "fifth" major—has never won one of the four most prestigious events, but he boasts finishes of joint fourth and second in the past two tournaments.

CBSSports.com's Kyle Porter noted an interesting parallel between Kuchar and Scott:

In rather quiet fashion, three-time Masters champion Phil Mickelson wound up tying for 12th in Humble on Sunday. Mickelson seems healthy—but also nervous—as he prepares to chase major No. 6, per PGATour.com's Martin:

"

I’m a little nervous heading into next week. I haven’t had the results, I haven’t been in contention, I haven’t won this year, so I’m certainly nervous about my chances, but it’s my favorite week of the year. It will be a challenge for me to deal with the pressure of the Masters and how much I love that tournament when I haven’t been (in contention) much this year.

"

That doesn't sound like the Mickelson golf enthusiasts have come to know and love.

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

However, he can't be counted out thanks to his previous prowess. Even though he hasn't been a threat much since winning the Open Championship last year, Mickelson is still among the game's elite, and familiarity with the course will help him immensely.

Day has finished in the Masters' top three twice in a three-year span, so he figures to be in the hunt again despite a nagging thumb injury. The lack of competitive reps may ultimately cost him, though.

Until last week's debacle with an opening-round 80 and subsequent withdrawal, Dustin Johnson should have been a heavy favorite based on his form this season. Golf Channel's Will Gray noted how bad it got for Johnson:

Sobel points out that Johnson had some back stiffness, which is a bit of a red flag:

But with Johnson's power and his improvement from 100 yards and in—he's first on tour in all-around ranking and fourth in scoring average, even with the 80—he is a 15-1 favorite to win.

It seems like only a matter of time before Johnson gets it done, and picking against him even after he pulled out of last week's event doesn't seem wise. His length and the generous landing areas with Augusta's wide fairways give Johnson his best opportunity to win the Masters yet.

So while there could be some factors to change the decision, it seems the best pick for the moment is Johnson. As long as his withdrawal at the Shell Houston Open is an aberration rather than a sign of a long-term injury risk, Johnson has all the tools to become golf's next legitimate superstar.

All that's really missing from his winning resume is a major. A green-jacket triumph would potentially continue building the monster Johnson has shown signs of becoming—and that's meant in the best possible way.

With his athleticism, natural ability and a perpetually improving putter, there's no telling what Johnson's ceiling is. And if he's able to knock off any of the aforementioned four heavy favorites en route to his first major, then the Masters should indeed live up to the hype yet again in 2014.