Sony Open Tennis Preview: Predicting the Top 25 Seeds' Chances in Miami
After an eventful two weeks in Indian Wells, the ATP moves on to Miami. The Sony Open will get underway on March 19. Novak Djokovicย defeatedย Roger Federer in the Indian Wells final to win his third masters title in a row and 17th overall.ย
Will anyone be able to put an end to Djokovic's Masters run? ย
I do not see an unseeded Cinderella taking down the title, so let's look at who has the best chance out of the top-25 seeds.ย
Check out the drawย here.
**All stats courtesy of atpworldtour.comย
Marin Cilic (25)
1 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Marinย Cilic is off to a great start in 2014. He holds a record of 20-5 and has picked up two titles along the way.
Beating players ranked better than him has not been a problem this season. Cilic has a record of 7-4 against players ranked above him. This includes a win over Andy Murray.ย
Indian Wells Result:ย Lost to Novak Djokovic in the round of 16ย 6-1, 2-6, 3-6.
Prediction in Miami
Cilic has been playing great this year, but has a tough matchup against Stanislas Wawrinka in the round of 32. He has a 2-5ย record against him in his career. Wawrinka will take him down once again, ending Cilic's run there.ย
Philipp Kohlschreiber (24)
2 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Philipp Kohlschreiber had to pull out of the Australian Open due to a hamstring injury, but has gone 10-6 whenย healthyย this year. His best result was a semifinal appearance in Dubai.ย
Prediction in Miami
Kohlschreiber has never played well in Miami. He has a record of just 2-7. Expect the German to lose to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the round of 32, whom he has dropped his last five matches against.ย
Gael Monfils (23)
3 of 25
2014 Breakdownย
Gael Monfils comes into Miami with a 13-4 record. Two of those losses have come against Rafael Nadal. His best result came at the Open Sud de France, where he took home the title.ย
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the round of 32 against Fabio Fogniniย 2-6, 6-3, 5-7.
Prediction in Miami
Monfils has played very well this year and matches up great against his potential round-of-32 opponent Milos Raonic (12). His defensiveย playย can get to Raonic as is shown by his 2-0 head-to-head record.
If Juan Martin del Potro withdraws or struggles with injury again, then Monfils could even advance to the quarterfinals. However, his run would likely end there against Rafael Nadal. ย
Alexandr Dolgopolov (22)
4 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Alexandr Dolgopolov was the Cinderellaย storyย of Indian Wells. He knocked off Nadal and then made it all the way to the semifinals. He now owns a 15-8 record on the year. Besides Indian Wells, his best result was a finals appearance at the Rio Open.ย
Indian Wells Result:ย Lost in the semifinals to Roger Federerย 3-6, 1-6.
Prediction in Miami
Theย Ukrainianย is hot right now and can keep it up here in Miami. I like him to upset Tommy Haas (13) in the round of 32.
They have split theirย twoย previous meetings, and Haas has not beenย playingย great with a 9-7 record on the year.ย Expect him to fall to Stanislas Wawrinka in the round of 16.ย
Ernests Gulbis (21)
5 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Ernests Gulbis owns a 15-5 record in 2014, and he comes in off a quarterfinalย appearanceย at Indian Wells. He won the Open 13 in France. Gulbis has played well against the top players with a record of 3-2 against the top 10 this year.
Indian Wells Result:ย Lost to John Isnerย 6-7(4), 6-7(3) in the quarterfinals.
Prediction in Miami
After a strong showing in Indian Wells, Gulbis will carry some confidence into Miami. I like him to take down Tommy Robredo (16) in the round of 32. However, expect his run to end there.
Djokovic will be too much for him to handle in the round of 16. Gulbis has a 1-4 record against Nole, but that win was all the way back in 2009.ย ย
Kei Nishikori (20)
6 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Nishikori comes in with a record of 13-4. He won in Memphis for his only title of the season. Nishikori also had a strong showing at the Australian Open by advancing to the round of 16.
Indian Wells Result: Lost to Tommy Haasย 6-7(3), 2-6 in the round of 32.
Prediction in Miami
His second match vs. Grigor Dimitrov should be a very competitive one. However, I am giving Dimitrov the edge over him.
The Bulgarian has played much better against tougher competition this year. Nishikori has not beaten a player ranked higher than 37. Dimitrov has defeated six players higher than that.ย
Jerzy Janowicz (19)
7 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Jerzy Janowicz has an 8-5 record on the season. He has not appeared in a final this year, but Janowicz does have a nice win over Tommy Haas on the year. Otherwise, he has not done much else.ย
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the first round to Alejandro Fallaย 3-6, 6-2, 6-7(5).
Prediction in Miami
Janowicz usually does most of his damage indoors, but has a good draw to reach the round of 16. He should be able to beat the clay-court specialist Fabio Fognini in the round of 32.
He has played Rafael Nadal close in their two matchups, but I see Nadal taking him out in the round of 16.ย
Nicolas Almagro (18)
8 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Nicolas Almagro missed the start of the year with a shoulder injury, leaving his record at just 5-4. He comes into Miami on a three-match losing streak. The Spaniard missed Indian Wells with the shoulder issue as well. This will be his first hard-courtย tournamentย in 2014.
Indian Wells Result:ย DNP
Prediction in Miami
With lingering injury issues, I don't see Almagro going very far. He will likely lose his first or second match to Sam Querrey or John Isner.
Kevin Anderson (17)
9 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Kevin Anderson is playing some of the best tennis of his career right now. He owns a 14-5 record on the year. Before reaching the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, he also made it to the finals in Acapulco and Delray Beach.ย
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the quarterfinalsย to Roger Federerย 5-7, 1-6.ย
Prediction in Miami
Anderson will look to keep his hot streak going in Miami. He has been playing better than Gasquet, so I like Anderson to pull the upset over him in the round of 32. He has a 1-3 record against Gasquet but won their last meeting.ย
Unfortunately for the South African, his tournament will end there, at the hands of Roger Federer for the second straight week.ย
Tommy Robredo (16)
10 of 25
2014 Breakdownย
Tommy Robredo comes in with a record of 9-5. The veteran clay courter had a good showing at the Australian Open. He made it to the round of 16 before losing to Wawrinka. However, he is just 6-4 since then. ย
Indian Wells Result: Lost to Cilicย 4-6, 3-6 in the round of 32.
Prediction in Miami
Robredo has not been playing great since the Australian Open and is also not at his best on the hard courts. Look for him to lose his second match against Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis won their only previous meeting and has the edge on hard courts.ย
Grigor Dimitrov (15)
11 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Grigor Dimitrov showed the world theย immenseย talent he possesses by advancing to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. He followed that up by beating Andy Murray and winning the title in Acapulco. His record currently stands at 12-4.
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the round of 32 to Ernests Gulbisย 6-2, 1-6, 5-7.
Prediction in Miami
Expect big things from Dimitrov in Miami. He has a nice draw to make a run here. I like him to take out Nishikori and David Ferrer to make it to the quarterfinals. Ferrer is coming back from injury, and the Bulgarian beat him the last time they played.
However, "Baby Fed's" run will end against the real Roger Federer. If it happens, it will be a great match to watch in the quarterfinals. ย ย
Fabio Fognini (14)
12 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Fabio Fognini is off to a nice 17-5 start to the season. However, 12 of those wins have come on clay courts. He won the Royal Guard Open in Chile and made it to the finals in Buenos Aires. The Italian also made it to the round of 16 at the Australian Open.ย
Indian Wells Result:ย Lost to Dolgopolov in the round of 16 2-6, 4-6.
Prediction in Miami
Fognini had a nice showing in Indian Wells, but he is much better on clay. Look for him to lose his second match to Jerzy Janowicz.ย
Tommy Haas (13)
13 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Tommy Haas has been very up and down this season. The veteran's record stands at just 9-7. He has lost to three players ranked 100 or higher. His best result was a finals appearance at the PBZ Zagrebย Indoors.
Indian Wells Result: Round-of-16 loss to Roger Federerย 4-6, 4-6.
Prediction in Miami
In his second match,ย Haas will be running into the red-hot Alexandr Dolgopolov. Haas is not playing his best tennis right now and will bow out there.ย
Milos Raonic (12)
14 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Milos Raonic has dealt with an injury for most of the season. This has limited him to just seven matches. In those matches he has a record of 5-2. Raonic had a big win over Andy Murray in Indian Wells before falling in the quarterfinals.ย
Indian Wells Result:ย Lost in theย quarterfinalsย to Alexandr Dolgopolovย 3-6, 4-6.
Prediction in Miami
Raonic had a nice run at Indian Wells, but I don't expect him to repeat that here. He has a tough matchup against Monfils in the round of 32. Monfils is able to counter Raonic's strengths very well. Expect an early exit against Monfils here.ย
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11)
15 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga enters Miami with a record of 9-5. He reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open and made it to theย finalsย in Marseille. With a disappointing result in Indian Wells, Tsonga will try to turn things around in Miami.ย
Indian Wells Result: Lost his first match to Julien Benneteauย 4-6, 4-6.ย
Prediction in Miami
Tsonga has a good matchup against Kohlschreiber in the round of 32. He has beaten him five times in a row. After that, Tsonga will most likely square off against Andy Murray.
This is where Tsonga's run will come to an end. Murray has owned Tsonga in their careers. He leads their head-to-head matchupsย 8-1. Tsonga has not beaten him since 2008.ย
John Isner (10)
16 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Isner started off the year great by winning the Heineken Open, but then followed that up with a first-round loss at the Australian Open. Last week, he made it to the semifinals at Indian Wells before losing to Novak Djokovic. This brought him back to the top 10 and improved his record to 11-4.
Indian Wells Result: Lost to Novak Djokovic in the semifinalsย 5-7, 7-6(2), 1-6.
Prediction in Miami
Isner has always played well in America. Look for him to follow up his success at Indian Wells with a nice run in Miami. I see him taking out Berdych in the round of 16. Berdych leads their head-to-head matchups 3-2, but Isner isย 2-0ย in the States.
However, I do see fatigue as an issue for Isner at the end of the second week. After taking out Berdych, he would most likely face Stanislas Wawrinka. Wawrinka will take advantage of the tired American and end his run in the quarterfinals.
Richard Gasquet (9)
17 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Richard Gasquet has had an uneventful year. Heย has yet to win a title in 2014, and comes in with a record of 11-6. His best result was as aย finalistย in Montpellier.ย
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the round of 32 to Fernando Verdascoย 6-7(5), 1-6.
Prediction in Miami
The Frenchman had a great showing here in 2013, but I do not see another semifinalย appearanceย this year. He has not been on the top of his game and faces a tough challenge in his second match.ย
He will likely meet Kevin Anderson in his second match, and Anderson has been playing great. I see Gasquet falling here and losing in theย roundย of 32 once again.
Juan Martin Del Potro (8)
18 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Juan Martin del Potro started the year off great by winning the title in Sydney. However, he has gone just 3-3 since then. This isย largelyย because of a wrist injury. Del Potro pulled out of Indian Wells with this injury.ย
Indian Wells Result: DNP
Prediction in Miami
Del Potro's success really depends on his health. If his wrist recovers after taking time off, then del Potro should be able toย advanceย to the quarterfinals to most likely take on Nadal.
This matchup could go either way; they areย 4-4ย against each other on hard courts. ย If he is not healthy, he could be out much earlier due to injury.ย
**Update** Del Potro has withdrawn due to the wrist injury.
Tomas Berdych (7)
19 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Before losing his first match in Indian Wells,ย Berdych had been playing very well. He had won 16 of his last 18 matches. This included a semifinals run at the Australian Open, a title in Rotterdam and a finalsย appearanceย in Dubai. Berdych owns a record of 16-4 in 2014.ย
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the round of 64 to Roberto Bautista Agutย 6-4, 2-6, 4-6.
Prediction in Miami
Berdych should advance to the round of 16 without much trouble, but he could have a tough matchup against Isner there.
I leaned towards Isner, but it could go either way. The American has the edge, because he is playing with home-court advantage. Isner holds aย 2-0ย lead in America and 2-1 lead on hard courts.
If he does manage to get past Isner, his most likelyย opponentย would be Wawrinka. I do not see Berdych getting by both of these matches. ย Wawrinka has Berdych's number recently; he has beaten Berdychย fourย times in a row.ย
Andy Murray (6)
20 of 25
2014 Breakdown
For Andy Murray's standards, he is having a down year. He has yet to reach a final and his record stands at 14-5. Part of the blame can be placed on recovering from back surgery in the offseason. Murray is still trying to find his form this year.
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the round of 16 to Milos Raonicย 6-4, 5-7, 3-6
Prediction in Miami
Murray is the defending champion in Miami. However, he is in the much tougher half of the draw with Federer and Djokovic lurking in his half.
Murray will likely face Tsonga in the round of 16, which has been a great matchup for him. He leads their head-to-head matchups 8-1.
With Djokovic likely waiting after this match, I see Murray's run ending there. Djokovic is simply playing at a higher level than Murray at the moment.ย
Roger Federer (5)
21 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Roger Federer has returned to dominant form in 2014. He is 19-3 and won the title in Dubai. He reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and lost in the finals in Indian Wells.
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the finals to Djokovicย 6-3, 3-6, 6-7(3).
Prediction in Miami
Everything is clicking once again, so expect Federer to keep up this high level of play. I don't see anyone really posing a threat to Federer until the semifinals. He will most likely meet Murray or Djokovic there. I am going with Djokovic.
Djokovic and Federer are neck and neck right now. Dating back to the end of last year, their last four matches have been three setters.
The courts in Miami play slow, so I am giving a slight edge to Djokovic. He has had more success here recently as well, with two titles in the last three years. On the other hand, Federer has not made a final here since 2006.
David Ferrer (4)
22 of 25
2014 Breakdown
David Ferrer enters Miami with a 17-5 record on the year. He made it to the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and won the Copa Claro.ย
Indian Wells Result:ย DNP
Prediction in Miami
After missing Indian Wells with a thigh injury, Ferrer returns to action in Miami. He will continue hisย dominanceย over Andreas Seppi to move onto the round of 16 (currently 5-0).
This is where I see Ferrer losing to Dimitrov. He has the lingering injury issue, and Dimitrov is starting to live up to the hype. The Spaniard also lost to him last time they met.ย
Stanislas Wawrinka (3)
23 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Stanislas Wawrinka shocked the tennis world when he took home the Australian Open title. Heย defeatedย Djokovic, Nadal and Berdych to win in Australia. Wawrinka also took home the Aircel Chennai Open title earlier in the year. He lost for the first time in Indian Wells to bring his record to 13-1.
Indian Wells Result: Lost in the round of 16 to Kevin Andersonย 6-7(1), 6-4, 1-6.
Prediction in Miami
Wawrinka will look to bounce back from his first loss of the season in Miami. He has a tough draw, but holds the head-to-head lead over potential opponents Cilic and Berdych. I see him taking out Dolgopolov and Isner in tight matches to advance to the semifinals.
In the semifinals, I have Nadal getting his revenge on Wawrinka by knocking him out of Miami. The Spaniard was 12-0 against him before the Australian Open.ย
Novak Djokovic (2)
24 of 25
2014 Breakdown
After losing in theย quarterfinalsย at the Australian Open and semifinals in Dubai, Novak Djokovic broke through with a title in Indian Wells. He comes in with a 12-2 record in 2014.ย
Indian Wells Result: Won in the finals over Federerย 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3).
Prediction in Miami
Djokovic will be looking to win his fourth ATP Master 1000 title in a row and is the favorite to win in Miami. He has won here in two of the past three years.ย
As I broke down in previous slides, I like Djokovic over Murray and Federer. Murray is not at the top of his game, and the slower courts favorย Djokovicย againstย Federer.
If Djokovic makes it to the finals, he will most likely face Nadal.ย
Rafael Nadal (1)
25 of 25
2014 Breakdown
Nadal owns a 17-2 record in 2014. He won titles in Rio de Janeiro and Doha. Rafa lost in the Australian Open finals and suffered a back injury there. In Indian Wells, he was upset by Dolgopolov in his second match.
Indian Wells Result: Lost to Dolgopolov in the round of 32ย 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(5)
Prediction in Miami
Nadal did not look hisย dominantย self in Indian Wells. He barely advanced past Radek Stepanek before losing to Dolgopolov. Hopefully the extra time between tournaments will help him get back to playing his best tennis.
Nadal has never won in Miami, but I like him to reach the finals. Rafaย was placed in the easier half of the draw. Del Potro's health is questionable, and he has dominated Wawrinkaย throughoutย his career. He has a 13-1 advantage in head-to-head matchups.
I like Djokovic over Nadal, because he has been better on hard courts and has no lingering injury concerns. He leads their head-to-head matchups on hard courtsย 13-7.ย
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