Roger Federer's Grass Is Greener: Wimbledon 2009 Preview

Last week as I recuperated, drumming my fingers and watching the daily news about the grass court tournaments in progress—those warm-up tournaments for Wimbledon—I felt the major drama of the week eliminated once Rafael Nadal withdrew from Queens and Roger Federer withdrew from Gerry Weber.

For a while it looked as though there might be a promising final at Queens when it appeared that Andy Roddick would challenge Andy Murray.  But then Roddick twisted his ankle and had to surrender to James Blake.

The match between Andy Murray and James Blake was not a real contest.  Not many suspected it would be.

The upset of the week, however, was the one where Hollywood Tommy Haas upset Novak Djokovic in the final of Gerry Weber to take his first championship in a a while—since 2007 in Memphis. 

Although, when you consider the match Haas played in the fourth round against Roger Federer at the French Open, perhaps it is not as shocking as might appear at first glance.  Haas was playing some pretty astute tennis at Roland Garros and hasn't let up since then. 

This week’s grass court tournaments look equally tepid. 

At the Ordina Open in the Netherlands, the Spanish lads have the top three seeds with Fernando Verdasco, Tommy Robredo, and David Ferrer as one, two, and three respectively.  David Ferrer is the defending champion on grass!

At Eastbourne, where Igor Andreev, Dmitry Tursunov, and Paul Henri Mathieu are the top three seeds, Mathieu has already been upset.  We expect surprise finalists in this one.

Grass, which used to be the only surface in tennis, has now been relegated to five short weeks during the year, from the end of the French Open in early June through the first week in July.  The season is ridiculously short.

Grass courts are the most expensive to cultivate and sustain—hard courts being the easiest to maintain once the initial court is poured. 

The proud tradition of grass is upheld annually at Wimbledon which most would accede as the most prestigious of the slam tournaments.  Breakfast at Wimbledon has become a tradition for American tennis fans.

It begins in one week. 

It marks the third grand slam of the season with Rafael Nadal usurping Federer in Melbourne on hard courts and Federer supplanting Nadal on the red clay of Stade Roland Garros. 

It makes you wonder what surprises are in store during this year of upsets and surprises.

We are still waiting to learn the fate of Nadal’s knees.  Will he be able to defend his title? 

We suspect Nadal will offer a defense but fall short at Wimbledon in 2009, eventually losing his No. 1 ranking before the U.S. Open tournament in late summer.

Will Roger Federer regain his crown? 

His chances of capturing the Wimbledon Championship seem greater than Rafa’s of repeating, given Nadal’s knees and his lack of preparation. 

Will Roger be sufficiently motivated to capture No. 15 here or will he still be suffering a giddy hangover after the French Open victory? 

Roger must sober up quickly because the window of opportunity can close quickly and without warning. 

While Murray captured his first grass championship at Queens, he was offered little resistance along the way.  Murray’s Wimbledon grass feat may be a year off but his grass game promises to mature and become awesome in the coming years. 

In terms of Murray, 2009 would be a perfect time to capture that sixth Wimbledon title for Federer because in upcoming years Murray will become the force to be overcome in Wimbledon finals. 

Novak Djokovic lost his final at Halle to journeyman Tommy Haas.  Last year Djokovic lost early to Marat Safin, who went on to enjoy a fine run at Wimbledon until meeting Federer. 

Djokovic’s problem is consistency.  Yes, he has the game to defeat anyone.  But, he often slumps on his way to the finals and loses unexpectedly when he should not. 

That could change at any moment, as we know.  But so far, Djokovic has given no indication that he has found his much needed consistency.

So this year we must stick with Federer as the preeminent favorite to capture the Wimbledon championship in 2009.  Obviously his motivation to do so must be supreme. 

A wise man knows and takes advantage of the opportunities that are given to him.  Hopefully Federer will surmise the landscape and the future potential of his opposition, striking now when the iron is hot.

All right.  Perhaps this is a bit of wishful thinking.  Maybe an overdose of pain medication has given rise to a faulty premise.  But I think not. 

The victory at the French Open has freed Roger from a long-held doubt and given him that confidence he needed to button down his game. 

He overcame the worrisome windmills and bested their mythical champion.  Indirectly, yes.  But sufficiently. 

While we suffer through another week of meaningless tournaments waiting, we mull over the possible scenarios and the possible winners.  Once the draws are announced on June 19, then we can begin the task of prediction in earnest.

I'm looking forward to it.