2014 NFL Mock Draft: First Rounders Guaranteed to Succeed

While it is easy to suggest that there is less pressure on NFL teams to make the right pick in the draft thanks to the rookie wage scale, the teams that can find prospects sure to succeed at the pro level are the ones that typically go on to win championships.

Thanks to excessive costs in free agency and the salary cap, the teams who can accumulate the best talent most likely to succeed will field an elite team.

Ben Volin of the Boston Globe shows how the Seattle Seahawks have hit well in the draft lately, which in turn has allowed them to splurge in free agency:

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And the Seahawks were able to splurge for Harvin and their three defensive ends because Russell Wilson ($681,000), Richard Sherman ($600,000), Doug Baldwin ($560,000), Golden Tate ($880,000), Earl Thomas ($3.5 million), Bruce Irvin ($1.9 million) and Bobby Wagner ($979,000) are playing on their rookie contracts.

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Not every team will be as fortunate, but a number of first-round prospects stick out as surefire success stories at the pro level.

1. Houston Texans: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater is the perfect example. CBS Sports' Dane Brugler perfectly captures why Bridgewater is an ideal franchise quarterback:

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Yes, his slender frame isn't ideal and his deep ball accuracy needs work. But Bridgewater succeeds with his mobility, arm talent and efficient ability above the neck. He is a pro-style passer who is grounded, mature and has shown the ability to easily digest information.

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It is simply silly for a team like Houston to pass on Bridgewater. The position is an absolute mess and the Texans currently have a roster that is built to win a title if the quarterbacks would stop throwing to the other team.

Bridgewater has all the talent to succeed, but also has a strong group of talent around him that will allow him to excel in the pros.

2. St. Louis Rams (via Washington): Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

While true that Chris Long and Robert Quinn are in town, the latter posted 19 sacks in 2013 and will hit free agency after the 2014 season.

Given the wealth of talent on the roster in St. Louis, it is far from a guarantee that Quinn will stick around.

Jadeveon Clowney is arguably the top talent in the class and can join the rotation right away to give the Rams perhaps the best pass rush in the league. All three can be on the field together, too, as one can kick inside to defensive tackle is passing situations.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Blake Bortles is a bit of an unknown that the extensive path to the draft will figure out in due time, but right now he has the arm talent and intangibles to sneak into the discussion for the No. 1 overall pick.

For now, the unknown about Bortles makes it hard to slot him as the first signal-caller off the board, but he will not tumble far with the Jacksonville Jaguars in desperate need of a potential franchise player.

Bortles is a local player who can be built around for years, so the pairing only makes sense as the team and player can grow together.

4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

Johnny Manziel is quite the polarizing prospect, but his collegiate production and tremendous upside are difficult to ignore.

So is the praise from respected names such as NFL Network's Gil Brandt, via Peter King of MMQB.com:

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You are going to get 110% out of this guy every day of his life, every play of his life. If you don’t have a quarterback, and you want one, I believe this guy has a great chance to be good for a long time. This guy had an inferior team. And he beat Alabama, he beat Oklahoma. He’s down 29 to Duke in the last game of his college career, and he’s on the sidelines saying, ‘There is no way we are going to lose.’ This guy’s a better version of Fran Tarkenton.

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Manziel, thanks to his ability to extend plays with his feet, fits right in with the gritty AFC North. Surrounded by strong weapons such as Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron and a potential fellow rookie later in the first, Manziel's pro prospects are great. 

5. Oakland Raiders: Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo

Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Spor

Khalil Mack has quietly been on the rise since he manhandled the Ohio State offensive line early last season.

Mack is an instant starter and a player an elite defense can be built around. NFL.com's Bucky Brooks agrees:

Thanks to the addition of Sio Moore last season, Mack comes in and continues a defensive renaissance in Oakland.

6. Atlanta Falcons: Anthony Barr, OLB/DE, UCLA

The Atlanta Falcons need a hybrid pass rusher to consistently put pressure on opposing signal-callers.

While offensive line is an option, the Falcons have a solid amount of cap already invested in the position and can afford to wait.

A talent with unlimited upside such as Anthony Barr will not be on the board much longer, so Atlanta strikes while it can and grabs a potential franchise player.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

Sammy Watkins is sure to find success at the NFL level regardless of location and quarterback; much like Minnesota's Cordarrelle Patterson did last season.

Watkins is simply electric with the ball in his hands, which he can get in a variety of ways thanks to his versatility.

In Tampa Bay, Mike Glennon has earned another year as a starter and will excel with Watkins used in numerous different capacities.

8. Minnesota Vikings: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State

With new head coach Mike Zimmer in town, the defense in Minnesota will be just fine.

In other words, now is the time for the Vikings to find a new quarterback. Fresno State's Derek Carr is up to the task, especially after a strong Senior Bowl that resulted in praise from many, including Rotoworld's Josh Norris:

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We know he has an arm to hit every level of the field despite throwing plenty of screens in college. Carr doesn’t always throw from a balanced base, but he has improved willingness to take a hit on release. His footwork can be a mess, though, and that will frustrate the fanbase where he lands, similarly to Jay Cutler or Matthew Stafford. Carr has a great arm and he knows it.

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Those are strong comparisons and well deserved. Carr needs refinement, but he will find success—especially with Adrian Peterson behind him and the aforementioned Patterson to throw at. 

9. Buffalo Bills: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn

Greg Robinson is a bit of a newcomer to first-round talk, but his film at Auburn speaks for itself.

Robinson made short work of most defenders in the SEC, which is far and away one of the most impressive feats a collegiate offensive lineman can have to his name.

The focal point in Buffalo has to be on the success of second-year quarterback EJ Manuel, so upgrades in front of him make sense.

10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

One can argue the Detroit Lions need help on offense, but free agency seems like a good place to pick up a cheap alternative to Calvin Johnson.

Cornerback is a much more immediate, long-term concern.

With that in mind, local product Darqueze Dennard makes too much sense for a team that simply cannot stop the pass. Dennard will struggle as all rookie corners do, but he is a potential defensive cornerstone who is a better option that what is currently on the roster.

11. Tennessee Titans: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

While not the biggest of needs in Tennessee, another upgrade to what is already one of the up-and-coming lines in the NFL is not a bad thing—especially if Jake Matthews takes this sort of fall.

It can be considered as such, especially after Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff sat down with ESPN's Vaughn McClure and said Matthews may be the No. 1 overall pick:

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Think about it: He is a such a technique-sound individual. He has such an understanding of the game, being from a historic NFL football family (son of Hall of Famer lineman Bruce Matthews). He’s just so well-rounded in so many ways on and off the field that he’s going to be a guy who is going to turn a lot of heads. A guy like that has the potential to go No. 1 in this draft, if he turns the right heads.

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It seems to be the general consensus that Matthews is a franchise left tackle, but he can play any spot on the line in Tennessee and protect what may very well be a new quarterback under center next season.

12. New York Giants: Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame

The New York Giants have plenty of needs on defense, but they should know better than any franchise that a strong front in the trenches can mask a mediocre secondary.

Louis Nix is the obvious fit here, as the tackle who weighs in at north of 340 pounds can take on multiple blockers and free up things for edge rushers.

Nix's presence also means the Giants can drop more players into coverage with their ends able to find more consistent success.

13. St. Louis Rams: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

St. Louis can go a few different ways here, but knowing coach Jeff Fisher, he will want to continue to beef up a defense that lacks in certain areas.

One such area is safety, which was easily the weak point for most of the 2013 season. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is far from an instant answer thanks to his infrequent struggles in coverage, but he joins a unit with plenty of experience thanks to a corner like Cortland Finnegan.

14. Chicago Bears: Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

Timmy Jernigan is finally on the NFL's radar as an elite prospect thanks to his dominant year with the Florida State Seminoles.

Both ESPN's Mel Kiper and NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah are on the Jernigan-to-Chicago train, per Adam Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times:

The fit makes too much sense with franchise player Henry Melton on his way to free agency. Jernigan fits well at the NFL level thanks to his ability to dissolve running lanes and apply pressure from the interior. He immediately upgrades the unit in Chicago.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Calvin Pryor, FS, Louisville

The Pittsburgh Steelers need youth and talent at safety in a hurry, so Calvin Pryor makes a ton of sense as he is the second-best safety in the draft. After him, things get blurry at the spot. 

Like most defensive backs, Pryor will initially struggle at the pro level. But on a defense littered with veterans, the learning curve will be kind to Pryor.

This is a forward-looking pick for the Steelers rather than an immediate contributor. That does not make it a bad pick.

16. Baltimore Ravens: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

Joe Flacco has clearly had his struggles without Anquan Boldin, so the presence of another big target in Baltimore next year is an obvious need.

With tight end Dennis Pitta as one option and the massive Kelvin Benjamin as another, Flacco will do much better in 2014—provided Benjamin can clean up his drop issues. His staggering potential overrides such a fixable complaint.

17. Dallas Cowboys: Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri

Kony Ealy is one of the draft's biggest risers as of late, and there is simply no competition anymore between him and Missouri teammate Michael Sam.

Ealy has an athleticism that is difficult to match, which will allow him to play with his hand in the dirt or standing up at the next level, but only if he can prove to be adequate in coverage.

In Dallas, that will not be an issue. The team needs more edge rushers (something a team cannot have enough of in today's NFL), not to mention a simple talent infusion. Ealy is going to be a stud for a long time.

18. New York Jets: Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina 

With Rex Ryan still in the fold, the New York Jets can continue to focus on surrounding quarterback Geno Smith with better talent.

The best possible way to do that at this juncture is with Eric Ebron.

While tight end is far from the biggest need on the roster, Ebron is a rare prospect who combines athleticism with a strong pass-catching ability. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller compares Ebron to Denver's Julius Thomas:

Lofty praise, and much deserved. Ebron turns things around for the Jets in a hurry.

19. Miami Dolphins: Cyrus Kouandjio OT, Alabama

Boring!

No kidding, but Miami has little flexibility here in the first round. Cyrus Kouandjio is a top talent in the offensive trenches, which is the only spot the Dolphins can afford to spend a top pick on after quarterback Ryan Tannehill was brutalized last season.

20. Arizona Cardinals: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech

Arizona is surely not thrilled to see Ebron come off the board, but Jace Amaro is a close second in terms of pro potential.

Few players are more explosive at the position, and Amaro was seemingly a magnet for clutch receptions in his final collegiate season.

In Arizona, Amaro will act as Bruce Arian's newest weapon, which gives quarterback Carson Palmer a wealth of options in the vertical-oriented pass game.

21. Green Bay Packers: Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota

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Despite a high pick on the defensive line last year, the potential departure of B.J. Raji will have a profound impact on the unit overall next season.

Luckily for Green Bay, Ra'Shede Hageman is a freak athlete who can start right away. According to Brooks, via Rotoworld, the Minnesota product will post "J.J. Watt-like numbers at the Combine."

That is certainly a big deal. While the numbers will not necessarily translate to production on the field, Hageman is a rare talent who fits well in Green Bay and will surely find success on an already strong defense.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

Chip Kelly may be an offensive genius who has surely started a new trend at the pro level, but his defense needs some serious work.

Any defender asked to be on the field as much as Kelly's offense requires is going to struggle at times, but Justin Gilbert is a great athlete who sticks out as one of the best defensive backs the 2014 class has to offer.

Gilbert will undoubtedly struggle, but he will immediately come in and see action.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

Big-bodied wide receivers seem to be all the rage as of late since they act as strong complements to the flashy ones who can go the distance.

Hey, somebody has to move the chains.

A tight end would be a sound selection here for Andy Reid's offense, but with that not an option, Texas A&M's Mike Evans effectively doubles as one thanks to his frame at 6'5" and 225 pounds.

In the confines of the Kansas City offense, Evans is the perfect fit.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Zack Martin, OL, Notre Dame

GM Andrews/Associated Press

Notre Dame's Zack Martin is a late bloomer as far as draft stock goes, but his potential as a long-term player at the NFL level is hard to not notice.

ESPN's Mel Kiper (subscription required), who ranks Martin as the No. 17 overall player, says the Fighting Irish product has versatility that will intrigue teams:

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Martin is a great competitor, and absorbs power well for a tackle with shorter arms, but he also handles speed pretty effectively due to his quick feet. The arms could make him a likelier bet to land at guard, but the fact that he can play tackle at a pretty high level will get him looks there.

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Martin fits right in with Cincinnati, a team that needs an upgrade at left guard and the potential for a long-term solution at left tackle. 

25. San Diego Chargers: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

The San Diego Chargers need help in the trenches on defense, but with the lack of a top talent currently on the board, Jason Verrett is not a bad option to fall back on given the state of the team's secondary.

Verrett is extremely aggressive in run support, which will keep him on the field as a rookie. He will be far from perfect in coverage, but the same goes for the rest of the players currently under contract.

26. Cleveland Browns (via Indianapolis): Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State 

Cleveland's new franchise quarterback is going to need a reliable target across from Gordon to hit in order to move the chains.

That is where Allen Robinson comes into play. As ESPN's Ryan McCrystal points out, Robinson was held back by his quarterback in college, but has a very strong amount of upside:

The sound of a Boldin across from a Gordon is just, well, scary.

27. New Orleans Saints: C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama

There is nothing inherently wrong with Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne in New Orleans, but when a C.J. Mosley falls in a team's lap, said team takes a C.J. Mosley and makes it all mesh on the field.

Mosley is an elite talent who has been quiet as far as stock goes, which is strange for a top-flight Alabama product.

Alas, Mosley is a field general who fits well in New Orleans. Rob Ryan will make it work and suddenly has a top linebacker to go with an on-the-rise defense.

28. Carolina Panthers: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU

LSU receivers have not exactly done great in Carolina in recent years, but Odell Beckham Jr. has the upside to be an exception to the rule as he lines up across from Steve Smith.

Beckham Jr. has great size and did much to stand out with the Tigers when Zach Mettenberger was healthy. With Cam Newton getting him the ball consistently to move the chains, Beckham Jr. will prove to be the right move in due time.

29. New England Patriots: Marqise Lee, WR, USC

Tom Brady needs reliable targets in New England, if not just more targets in general.

The Patriots went to more of a power-running look late in the season, but part of the reason was due to a lack of options in the passing game.

Marqise Lee may have been a top-10 pick had USC not self destructed last season, which is part of the reason Bill Belichick elects to pull the trigger here.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

With Boldin's future with the team in doubt, the San Francisco 49ers must find a cheap alternative in the draft.

That task is rather easy thanks to Jordan Matthews, who blew away the competition at the Senior Bowl, per NFL Network's Charles Davis, via NFL.com's Chase Goodbread:

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He will go into the briar patch, take his hits and keep on ticking. I never worry about that part with him. Obviously, people are going to want to know what he runs (at the combine). All in all, I think he's a big-time prospect. Let's face it: How many quarterbacks threw to him at Vanderbilt? Try to name them all. Yet everyone knew he was coming each week in the SEC.

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Matthews will start right away across from Michael Crabtree and have a fruitful career in an explosive offense.

31. Denver Broncos: Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State

The Denver Broncos need help in a variety of areas on defense, but one position that sticks out as a bit of a question mark is linebacker.

Like Mosley, when a talent like Ryan Shazier falls down the board, a team better be quick to scoop him up.

The Broncos know how to draft, and Shazier fits right in as an every-down player. His role is in a bit of flux all things considered, but again—Denver simply cannot pass on a top talent this late.

32. Seattle Seahawks: Dee Ford, DE, Auburn 

Butch Dill/Associated Press

By the time the draft rolls around, Dee Ford may prove to be a top-15 selection—or better.

Ford blew up the draft world with two sacks and the MVP award at the Senior Bowl. He is sure to keep the momentum going given he is a natural athlete who effectively generates pressure on passers.

Seattle could use the depth, not to mention the seemingly endless upside of a player like Ford, who could move into a starting gig sooner rather than later.