Fantasy Football 2013: 10 Stars Sure to Struggle Down the Stretch

In last week’s column, I laid out some players who have some favorable schedules in the fantasy football playoffs (which usually begin in Week 14 and culminates in Week 16 with fantasy super bowls). We all like to uncover some gems with ideal playoff matchups, but on the flip side it’s hard to ignore the stars who might have difficulty contributing when it matters most.

So, in this slideshow, I will highlight 10 players (ranked in order of significance) who, while they may have carried you to victory countless times this season, may just disappoint in crunch time.

Again, the players on this list are not being called out for being lousy players but rather how they could be in for some trouble in the playoffs.

Disclaimer: Stud players like Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, etc., will not be included on this list, as they are no-brainer starts regardless of matchups. Below are players who may be on the bubble as to whether you should start them or not.

Also, all stats are prior to Monday night’s game between Carolina and New England.

10. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers

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As one of Cam Newton’s primary receiving targets, Smith may find the sledding tough in the fantasy playoffs.

Smith will have to face the third-ranked Saints’ pass defense (which allows just 191 passing yards per game) twice in the fantasy playoffs (at New Orleans in Week 14 and at home in Week 16). In Week 15 vs. the Jets, Smith will likely be matched up with the Jets’ Antonio Cromartie, and he may have difficulty getting open in that affair.

All this makes Smith a risky play in the playoffs.

9. Chris Ivory, New York Jets

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Ivory has taken command as the lead back in the Jets backfield, as he has been on a good run of late, rushing for 352 yards and two touchdowns in the last four weeks.

Although he has momentum on his side, that may come to a screeching halt when the playoffs begin. In Weeks 14 through 16 the Jets will take on three top-10 rush defenses.

In Week 14 the Jets will host a Raiders squad that allows 97.6 rushing yards per game (sixth in the NFL). In Week 15 the Jets will travel to Carolina to take on a Panthers team that yields 82 rushing yards per game (second in the NFL) and has given up just two touchdowns on the ground (second fewest in the league). The Jets will wrap up the playoffs in Week 16 with a home game against the Browns, who allow 99 rushing yards per week.

8. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

Colston has not exactly been lighting it up this season, but he is coming off two fine weeks in which he has recorded 12 receptions for 187 yards and a touchdown in games vs. Dallas and San Francisco.

However, Colston may have trouble building on those fine numbers in the playoffs, as he’s set to face the Panthers twice (home against Carolina in Week 14 and at Carolina in Week 16).

Sure, the Week 15 matchup at St. Louis is advantageous, but the games against Carolina could get dicey. The Panthers allow only 201 passing yards per game (fourth in the NFL) while giving up just seven scores through the air (tied for fewest in the league).

7. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

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With Reggie Wayne sidelined for the year, opposing defenses are starting to key in on second-year receiver T.Y. Hilton.

With the pass defenses the Colts are set to face in the playoffs, Hilton may have a hard time getting loose.

In Week 14 the Colts will be at Cincinnati, which is sixth against the pass—allowing just 211 passing yards per games and 14 touchdowns via the air. In Week 15 the Colts host the league’s best pass defense in the Houston Texans, who allow a league-low 168 passing yards per game. The Colts wrap up their fantasy playoff schedule at Kansas City, which ranks ninth in the NFL in passing yards per game (220) and has given up just 10 passing touchdowns (third fewest in the league).

6. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

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Mathews is starting to find his groove, rushing for 432 yards and two touchdowns in his last five games.

While he should be commended for his late-season surge, the good times may come to an end in the playoffs. The Chargers face three very good rush defenses in the fantasy playoffs.

In Week 14 the Chargers will host a hot New York Giants defense. The Giants now rank seventh in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (98.7 YPG). In Week 15, the Chargers will travel to Denver, which allows just 92.7 rushing yards per game. In his last game against Denver in Week 10, Mathews only ran for 59 yards, albeit scoring a touchdown. Lastly, the Chargers will end the fantasy playoffs at home in Week 16 against the Raiders, who are sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (97.6).

5. Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams

While Stacy has emerged as a legitimate running back for fantasy purposes and has seized the job as lead back in St. Louis, he may hit a wall down the stretch.

The Rams don’t have an ideal playoff schedule conducive for Stacy to excel. While he may be able to exploit the Saints on the ground at home in Week 15, his other matchups could lead to disappointment.

In Week 14, the Rams will travel to Arizona to take on a Cardinals team that is giving up a mere 81.4 rushing yards per game while only allowing four touchdowns on the ground (tied for third fewest in the league). In Week 16 the Rams will host a suddenly resurgent Buccaneers team that is ninth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (101.4) while allowing just five rushing scores (tied for ninth fewest in the league).

4. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

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If you read the Hilton slide, you know Luck may be in for a difficult final stretch as well.

While Luck is making strides in his second year, it will prove to be yeoman’s work for him to put up gaudy numbers in Weeks 14 through 16 (at Cincinnati, vs. Houston and at Kansas City), as he’ll face three top-10 pass defenses (check Hilton’s post for the exact numbers these teams allow).

While the future is bright for Luck and the Colts, scale back your expectations for Luck in the fantasy playoffs.

3. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

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Fitzgerald’s season has been very inconsistent. He seems to be a player who thrives on good matchups. For example, this week in Jacksonville, Fitzgerald had an admirable final stat line: six catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.

However, when the competition stiffens up, he can go MIA, and Fitzgerald’s fantasy playoff schedule is tough. The Cardinals have it easy in Week 14, though, as they’ll host the Rams, who can be beat in the air. But in Weeks 15 and 16, Fitzgerald and the Cardinals travel to Tennessee and Seattle, respectively.

Tennessee is seventh in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (213 YPG) while limiting teams to just seven passing touchdowns (tied for fewest in the league). Seattle, meanwhile, is second in the league in pass defense, yielding 180 passing yards per game while allowing just 12 touchdowns (tied for seventh) via the air.

So if you make it to the semifinals, it may not be such a bad idea to sit Fitzgerald for the remainder of the playoffs.

2. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Johnson has been tough to trust this year, alternating some really good performances with some awful outings. He is coming off a great game in which he rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts. Also, just three weeks ago, Johnson rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams.

While Johnson has momentum on his side, you may want to temper your expectations of him for his playoff schedule.

In Week 14, he and the Titans will travel to Denver, which is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (92.7 YPG). In Week 15, the Titans will host the Cardinals, who have allowed just 81.4 rushing yards per game (third in the NFL) and have given up a measly four touchdowns on the ground (tied for third fewest in the NFL).

If by chance, though, you survive to Week 16, then Johnson will be rewarded with the grand prize of facing the Jaguars in Jacksonville, the team that is worst in the league in rushing yards allowed (139.1 YPG) and touchdowns (15) given up on the ground.

1. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

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You may not have a choice in sitting Newton, as he borders on must-start status in most leagues. But if you have a competent backup, you may want to look at alternatives.

After all, the Panthers will have to take on the vastly improved Saints pass defense twice in the playoffs (Week 14 on the road and Week 16 at home). The Saints rank third in pass defense, limiting opposing teams to 191 passing yards per game while allowing only 11 touchdowns through the air (tied for fourth in the league).

The Panthers’ Week 15 opponent, the Jets, are no slouch either, as they can at least bring pressure up front.

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