Introduction to my person and my view on betting

Today i have my own opinion about the right betting behavior and see it as an investment, which yields much more than investing money on the stocks market. I am studying physics/mathematics and have therefore a very scientific approach and do understand very well statistic distributions and the great importance they have in the world of sports betting. I started betting on sports about 10 years ago. It was for entertainment first, then my attention was drawn on betting services, until then i didn't have clue about how odds were compiled or why this services were successful. I was a member of some for about a year and made quite a good profit. By this time i did understand a lot more about betting and how to be successful with it. I learned a lot of money management systems and betting strategies by reading sports betting literature and some very good articles of professional sports gamblers. Actually there is no luck involved in sports betting at all, if you see it as an investment over a long term period. Let's assume we have a soccer match Arsenal vs Liverpool and i am the bookmaker and want to compile the odds for this game. What i do is analyzing both teams and calculating the probabilities for each team to win the game and of course the probability to tie. Let them be 40% (0.4) for Arsenal to win 30% (0.3) to draw and 40% (0.4) for Liverpool to win. Now why do i do that? The answer is simple, it is not possible for me to predict who will win or if the game will draw, no one can do it and it is also forbidden by physical laws, so everyone who claims he can predict the winner for a special game is a liar. And that's why i calculated probabilities, the general idea behind them is too play 1000 or 10000 or 100000 games, because you can predict the outcome of that, with a certain deviation but precise enough. Here comes the famous example with the coin. Assume i am the bookmaker. Now people want to bet on the coin throw. I calculate the probability of the outcome because no one (me included and also forbidden by nature) can predict the outcome of one single coin throw, but i can say that after 10000 coin throws it will be about 5000 head and 5000 tail with a certain deviation. The probability is 50% (0.5) for both results, therefore i take the inverse 1 / 0.5 = 2 and get the odd, also i want profit so i set the odds 1.95 for tail and 1.95 for head. I exactly do the same for the Arsenal vs Liverpool game, the correct odds would be 3-3-3 but again i take a certain margin to make profit e.g.: 2.5-3.0-2.5 and in the long term, when we have about 10000 games with the same situation, maybe another time the teams are called Munich, Bremen or Ajax or whatever, i have made a profit because the odds are in my favor (in this case i am the bookmaker). So now you might think because the bookmaker has a margin he will always win. Bingo! The bookmaker always wins no matter what. The odds for an event are always in his favor because of the margin he takes. This is only the first part from this article, the next parts will come soon. If you need to know more about sports betting I suggest this betting forum; it has some nice articles also about calculating the Asian handicap odds.