Buying or Selling Washington Capitals Players' Hot Starts in 2013-14

For the Washington Capitals, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

After a massively underwhelming effort in a 2-0 loss to the rival New York Rangers on Wednesday night, the Caps find themselves mired in another slow start. At 2-5-0, the Caps already trail the division-leading Pittsburgh Penguins by six points.

What is worse is that the Caps still cannot figure out how to get a goal past Henrik Lundqvist as, including Games 6 and 7 of last season's playoff series, Lundqvist has now blanked the Caps in three straight affairs.

Still, it is not all bad for the Caps. Some players have gotten off to very good starts. Others...not so much.

For certain players, like Alex Ovechkin, a good start was to be expected.

For new players like Mikhail Grabovski, no one was really sure what to expect when the season started.

Many were hopeful that Braden Holtby would transition into an elite level NHL goaltender. That has not gone according to plan—although Holtby was about the only thing keeping the Caps in the game against the Rangers.

Players like Troy Brouwer and Brooks Laich are not scoring as much as had been anticipated. But players like Marcus Johansson are doing better than was perhaps expected.

How this will all play out over the next 75 games will be very interesting.

As far as the Caps' top five point producers so far this season, here is my take on whether to buy or sell on their hot starts.

Mike Green: Buy

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Mike Green has yet to score a goal. I expect that to change soon.

Currently, Mike Green ranks fifth on the Capitals in points with four. However, after leading all NHL defensemen in goals scored last season, Green has yet to score a goal in 2013-14.

My observations of Green through the first seven games is that he is not shooting the puck enough. Now statistically speaking, there is little to support my theory here. After all, Green is third on the team with 14 shots and he leads all Caps defenders in this category.

Still, I have watched most of every Caps game this season, and while I cannot complain about Green's effort at even strength, doesn't it seem like when the Caps are on the power play that he is too intent on setting up Alex Ovechkin?

Ovi leads the Caps—and the NHL for that matter—with 50 shots on goal so far this season. Troy Brouwer ranks second on the Caps with 16. That's right, a full 34 shots fewer.

That is part of the Caps problem so far is that too much of everything is flowing through Ovi. Ovechkin has been producing, but it still leaves the Caps unbalanced.

I have noticed this with Green on the power play. He has always been an excellent quarterback for the power-play unit but Nicklas Backstrom is unquestionably the key distributor and playmaker on the power play now.

Green needs to be hammering the puck towards the net more often on the power play. Look at what happened in the opening game against the Chicago Blackhawks when he did just that—Mikhail Grabovski got two deflections and the Caps hung in there with the defending champions for most of the game.

On Wednesday against the New York Rangers, I watched Green pass up several great opportunities to just fire the puck at Henrik Lundqvist. Everyone, including Green, was trying to set up Ovi for that great one-timer from the left circle. The problem is that Lundqvist knows Ovechkin very well and knows how to play him very effectively.

A player like Green has to recognize this and modify his tactics in those types of situations.

Green's overall defensive game has, however, improved in certain respects. He is, rather surprisingly, leading the Caps in blocked shots with 14.

Then again, he has been somewhat of a defensive liability with a minus-five rating.

Still, I think you should buy as far as Green is concerned. It is early in the season and, provided he stays healthy, I think you will start to see him shooting the puck more. He has one of the best shots on the team, and once he starts to use it more consistently, I believe his numbers and production will both improve.

Marcus Johansson: Sell

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Marcus Johansson has gotten off to a somewhat surprising start.

Having Marcus Johansson be as productive as he has been so far this season is a pleasant early surprise for the Capitals.

MoJo is currently ranked fourth on the team in points with five, and he is second on the team in assists with the same number.

But I am not sold on Johansson, and while I believe he will continue to be an integral part of the Caps top line, I will be somewhat surprised if he ends up as one of the Caps' top producers once the season comes to an end.

Even though Johansson has five assists, three of them came in one game—the Caps 5-4 shootout win over the Calgary Flames.

What has to be somewhat concerning is the fact that MoJo has no goals so far through seven games. Of course, goals for anyone not named Alex Ovechkin have been hard to come by as far as the Caps are concerned, so perhaps this is not such a huge issue after all.

What is more distressing, however, is that Johansson is just not shooting the puck. He has played in all seven of the Caps games so far and he has all of three shots on goal. Just three. He is tied with Martin Erat for 18th on the team in this category—and MoJo averages almost 10 minutes more ice time per game than Erat does.

Now, as mentioned in the previous slide, there is a huge discrepancy in shots between Ovechkin and anyone else on the team. But when you compare Johansson's shots to his other linemate, Nicklas Backstrom, the problem becomes more pronounced.

Backstrom has 13 shots so far and is ranked fourth on the team in this category. If MoJo is going to continue to be on the top line, then he absolutely needs to shoot the puck more. The top line desperately needs to be more productive, and it starts with Johansson creating more scoring opportunities for himself.

In watching MoJo so far, it is hard to say what the issue is. He is skating well and his vision looks to be improved. But he seems tentative too much of the time. He has a great deal of talent and he can score—but you can't score if you don't shoot and, for now, Johansson is just not shooting the puck enough for my liking.

Hopefully, this changes in the near future and Johansson starts to score some goals. Until that happens though, don't buy into the semi-hot start from Johansson.

Mikhail Grabovski: Sell

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Was Mikhail Grabovski's hot start a mirage?

When Mikhail Grabovski started the season with a hat trick against the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks, I will be the first to admit that I wanted prime seats on the Grabo bandwagon.

Six games later, I am not so sure about that.

Presently, Grabovski is third on the team in points with six, second on the team in goals with three and tied for fifth on the team in assists with three.

He is also the only Caps forward who does not have a negative plus/minus rating.

But if you take away that first game against the Blackhawks, there is not a lot to be excited about. Grabovski has no goals over the past six games, although he did score a huge shootout goal in the win against the Calgary Flames.

He has just two assists over those past six games and just seven shots on goal over those past six games. Equally distressing is that Grabovski has not put a shot on net the past two games.

As a center, Grabovski is expected to win faceoffs and he has been inconsistent in this department so far this season. His faceoff win percentage had gone down from 71 percent against Carolina to just 40 percent against Edmonton. He did get that number back to almost 55 percent against the New York Rangers, one of the few bright notes on an otherwise ugly evening.

To a large extent, Grabovski's recent struggles echo what is going on with the Caps second line in general. The second line figured to be a source of strength and depth for the Caps, and that has not been the case thus far.

Between Grabovski, Troy Brouwer and Brooks Laich, the Caps second line has just five goals between them—and just two since opening night. If you want to know why the Caps are struggling, look no further than the disappointing production coming from the second line.

And Grabovski is, literally, at the center of it all. He is certainly putting forth the effort, and the results may indeed follow.

But for now, I am not completely sold that Grabovski will be the solution on the second line many Caps fans hoped he would be.

Nicklas Backstrom: Buy

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Nicklas Backstrom continues to be one of the most consistent players for the Caps.

Slowly and steadily, Nicklas Backstrom continues to evolve into, perhaps, the most well-rounded player on the Washington Capitals.

Last season, Backstrom quietly emerged as one of the best setup men in the NHL. His 40 assists led the Caps, and he ended up finishing third in the entire NHL in that category. He would have been on pace for 68 assists, which would have tied him for his career high, set in the 2009-10 season.

He has continued to be very effective so far this season. Backstrom currently leads the Caps in assists with seven and he is ranked seventh in the NHL overall in this category.

If he continues on this pace, Backstrom would finish with 82 assists, and that would indeed be a career high.

Backstrom's vision and playmaking ability continue to improve, and this is particularly true when the Caps are on the power play. Now, more than ever, everything about the Caps power play flows through Backstrom.

Backstrom's overall play has a direct correlation to how effective Alex Ovechkin is, and in many ways, Ovi's hot start is linked to Backstrom's.

I am still waiting for Backstrom to start lighting the lamp more. He only has one goal so far this season. With all that natural talent, Backstrom should be scoring more goals. Then again, he seems rather content setting up Ovechkin as opposed to trying to score goals for himself.

And there is nothing wrong with that. The Caps top line of Backstrom, Ovechkin and Marcus Johansson is the only line consistently producing—and almost all of that is Ovi scoring goals while Backstrom and MoJo set him up.

Obviously, that needs to balance out some. Until then, though, Backstrom seems quite satisfied with feeding Ovi for one-timers, power-play goals and many shots on goal per game.

Backstrom is also winning roughly 51 percent of his faceoffs. In almost every way, Backstrom is one of the few players doing what needs to be done to help the Caps be successful.

I fully expect Backstrom's hot start to continue for the rest of the season. As far as bets go, Backstrom is about as safe as it gets. 

Alex Ovechkin: Buy

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Alex Ovechkin is playing as well as anyone in the NHL right now.

As if there was any doubt about this one.

Last season, Alex Ovechkin reminded everyone that he was, and still is, one of the best players in the world. He won his third Rocket Richard Trophy, leading the NHL with 32 goals, and he also captured his third Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL's MVP.

Ovi has picked up right where he left off.

He leads the Caps with six goals so far this season and is tied for second in the NHL in this category. He has nine points for the season, which has him ranked eighth in the NHL.

Ovi led the NHL in shots last season and is currently leading the NHL in shots this season with 50. Zach Parise is a distant second with 43. As far as the Caps are concerned, no one is anywhere near Ovi regarding shots. Brooks Laich is second in shots with 16—a full 34 shots behind Ovechkin.

Ovi continues to be an absolute monster on the power play. Three of his six goals have come with the man advantage. Ovechkin led the NHL with 16 power-play goals last season; he is currently tied for the lead in this category again this season.

Ovechkin is continuing to be effective at scoring on the power play even though the opposition knows exactly what is coming. Beyond that, though, Ovi looks to be skating well, he is playing physically and he looks determined.

Lately, Ovi has been doing a better job at scoring at even strength. Earlier in the season, Ovechkin was struggling in this area, but he has improved as of late.

Right now, Ovechkin would be on pace to score 70 goals this season. It is very unlikely that will happen, but a 50-goal season seems very possible.

If there is a concern, as there always is with the Caps, it is that they are just too reliant on Ovechkin. Everything is flowing through him far too much. The Caps are a better team when they can maintain some sort of balance, and thus far, the Caps have been very unbalanced as a team.

Still, Ovi is being asked to carry the team, and he has responded quite well. He still can't figure out how to beat Henrik Lundqvist, and it will be interesting to see if he gets distracted by the upcoming Winter Olympics in Russia.

But barring injury or something truly unexpected, Ovechkin is a smarter player than he has been in years, and he looks to be as effective as ever.

If Ovechkin was a stock, I would be telling you to buy as much of it as you could afford.