NFL Picks Week 7: Predicting Top Bets Against the Spread

2013 has been a great year so far for sharp gamblers that have been playing the NFL. With so many juicy spreads available in Week 7, it doesn’t seem like the gravy train will be stopping anytime soon either.

Whether you’ve been cleaning up or are looking to get back on track, there’s no way you should consider sitting out this coming week, as the slate of games features plenty of beatable lines.

Let’s take a look at my picks for each and every contest on the slate, plus a closer peek at two contests you aren’t going to want to shy away from betting big on.

Away Team	Home Team	Line	Prediction (ATS)
Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals	SEA -6.5	Cardinals
New England Patriots	New York Jets	NE -4	Patriots
San Diego Chargers	Jacksonville Jaguars	SD -7.5	Chargers
Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -6.5	Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals	Detroit Lions	DET -.3	Lions
Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	MIA -10.5	Bills
Chicago Bears	Washington Redskins	WAS -1.5	Bears
Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -3	Cowboys
St. Louis Rams	Carolina Panthers	CAR -6	Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	ATL -7.5	Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers	Tennessee Titans	SF -4	49ers
Cleveland Browns	Green Bay Packers	GB -10	Packers
Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -2.5	Ravens
Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	DEN -6.5	Colts
Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	NYG -3	Vikings

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5) over Houston Texans

The notion that the Houston Texans are a playoff contender is starting to become laughable, but the oddsmakers continue to put out spreads that give far too much credit to the downtrodden team while the general public continues to back it.

Coming off their fourth straight loss at home to the St. Louis Rams, the Texans now hit the road to play in Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Undefeated Kansas City continues to lead the league in turnover differential by a wide margin, recording 18 total takeaways and just six giveaways. Head coach Andy Reid has his squad playing smart football and that will not change against a Houston team that has no identity in 2013.

Regardless of who is lining up under center for the Texans—be it T.J. Yates, Matt Schaub or even Case Keenum—the offense is going to remain a complete mess. It is consistently giving the ball up, often putting the opposition in position to score or outright conceding touchdowns to the opposing defense.

It’s not hard to lead the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed—Houston is conceding just 131.3 yards per game—when the other team is starting in the red zone.

Don’t let those numbers fool you, the Texans simply aren’t any good this year and will get demolished by at least 10 points in this matchup.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

This is another matchup where you want to bet against a non-contender that the public still believes is the same powerhouse it has been over the past few seasons.

Despite making the NFC Championship Game less than a year ago, the Falcons are pitiful in 2013 and are only going to get worse with a receiving corps decimated by injury.

Julio Jones is done for the remainder of the season, while ESPN.com is reporting that Roddy White is nursing a hamstring injury that could keep him out for a while. Matt Ryan may be a solid, Pro Bowl-caliber signal-caller when his top options are available, but having Hugh Douglas as his No. 1 wideout will make him look pedestrian.

Factor in a tough Buccaneers secondary that is capable of making big plays and locking down the opposition’s best receivers, and it’s going to be ugly out there for the Dirty Birds.

If star running back Steven Jackson isn’t able to suit up, it’s hard to see any way that Atlanta would be able to generate consistent offensive production against this Tampa defense.

While no one is saying that the Bucs offense is anything to be scared of, Vincent Jackson and Mike Glennon clearly have a rapport—connecting on nine passes for 114 yards and two scores in Week 6—and could build on that.

As long as the Bucs utilize a balanced offensive attack and keep Atlanta from driving when the Falcons have the ball, they should be able to outright win this one—definitely covering the touchdown-plus spread.