Week 5 NFL Picks: Biggest Underdog Locks Against the Spread
With so many evenly matched teams going at it during Week 5 of the NFL season, this could potentially be a lucrative weekend for the oddsmakers. With that said, close games often seem to favor the teams that are getting points, so it wouldn't be surprising to see underdogs reign supreme.
Some favorites should be able to cruise, but it is unrealistic to expect every favorite to cover. Home underdogs are especially dangerous, and several of them could possibly even win their games outright this weekend.
Here are three underdogs that you can take to the bank against the spread in Week 5.
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Oakland Raiders (+5.5 vs. San Diego Chargers)
While the Oakland Raiders' record says that they are 1-3, they have actually made some notable progress this season. Oakland has shown some offensive competence, and much of that has to do with the play of quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
Although he missed last week's game against the Washington Redskins due to a concussion, he has been cleared to play and start for the Raiders when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday night, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
That is a huge boost for Oakland's offense as Pryor is a true dual threat. He figures to give the Chargers some problems as San Diego's defense is fourth worst against the pass and eighth worst against the run.
The biggest question mark relates to running back Darren McFadden, who left Oakland's Week 4 game with a hamstring injury. He is questionable to play in Week 5, according to Jerry McDonald of the San Jose Mercury News.
Rashad Jennings filled in admirably for McFadden last week with 116 total yards, so he should be able to do some damage against the Chargers if called upon.
San Diego has fared much better than most expected this season due to the resurgence of quarterback Philip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates, but the Chargers might not be ready to be 5.5-point favorites in a road divisional contest. This game will be closer than the line suggests, and Oakland could pull off the upset.
Arizona Cardinals (+2 vs. Carolina Panthers)
The Arizona Cardinals are a tough team to figure out. They seem like they can excel at one phase of the game in any given contest, but they rarely put it all together.
Quarterback Carson Palmer has been hit or miss, but he has a great stable of weapons with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts, so he can break out at any time. The defense has also held up well this year, so the Cards are capable of hanging with good teams.
Arizona will host such a team on Sunday when the 1-2 Carolina Panthers come to town. Carolina's record isn't indicative of its level as the two losses came late against the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills. The Panthers could easily be 3-0, but their lack of killer instinct has hurt them. They'll need it to put away a stingy Cardinals team in Week 5.
Arizona has already been busy this week, dealing disappointing offensive tackle Levi Brown to the Pittsburgh Steelers, according to SportsCenter.
While that could have an impact on the Cardinals offense, it isn't as if he was doing a great job anyway. Based on the fact that both defenses rank in the top seven against the run, this promises to be a low-scoring affair.
As long as the Cards don't allow Carolina quarterback Cam Newton to go off, they should be able to keep it close. Taking the team getting points is usually a good idea in these types of slugfests, and Arizona being at home is also a deciding factor.
Tennessee Titans (+2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
With a record of 3-1, the Tennessee Titans might be the NFL's most pleasant surprise. The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs can also stake claim to that title, though, which makes this a matchup worth watching in Week 5.
KC is favored by 2.5 points on the road, and the absence of Titans quarterback Jake Locker probably has a lot to do with that. He figures to miss at least three games with a sprained hip, according to John Breech of CBSSports.com, but backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is eager to step in, per Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean.
While the Buffalo Bills moved on from Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback this past offseason, he has had some success over the past couple of years. While he isn't an ideal starter for a playoff-caliber team over the long haul, he's good enough to get the job done over the course of a few weeks.
Truth be told, his starting opportunity couldn't have come at a better time. He owns a 4-1 career record against the Chiefs, including wins over them in 2011 and 2012.
But these Chiefs have a different feel under head coach Andy Reid. The defense is stout, and quarterback Alex Smith has stabilized the offense, but Tennessee is a fine all-around team as well. Despite Kansas City's strong defense, it allows nearly 118 yards per game on the ground, so it can be run on. Titans running back Chris Johnson has yet to come through with a huge performance this season, but with Locker on the shelf, this is the time to do it.
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