Ishe Smith vs. Carlos Molina: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

Tune in early for the undercard on this Saturday's Floyd Mayweather-Saul Alvarez pay-per-view. The main event is backed up by a collection of well-matched fights with potential for excitement. 

For the diehard boxing fans, Ishe Smith's defense of his IBF light middleweight title against Carlos Molina could be a potential gem. This is a battle between a couple of skilled and determined ring veterans. 

Both of these fighters have overcome setbacks and turned in gritty performances to reach this kind of career opportunity, and they both know how much a win here will do for them going forward.

This should be a well-fought engagement, with both men going all out for the win.  

Tale of the Tape

Per Boxrec	Ishe Smith	Carlos Molina
Record:	25-5, 11 KOs	21-5, 6 KOs
Height:	5'10"	5'9"
Reach:	71"	70"
Weight:	154 pounds	154 pounds
Age:	35	30
Stance:	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown:	Las Vegas, Nevada	Chicago, Illinois
Rounds:	178	203

Neither Smith or Molina knocks out a high percentage of opponents, but I think this will be an entertaining fight nonetheless. Each man is going to need to outwork the other, so there should be plenty of action.

Smith is the slightly taller and rangier fighter, and that's an edge for a smart boxer who knows how to use movement well.

Smith will be fighting in front of his hometown crowd. He's the first Vegas-born world champion in boxing history.

Main Storylines

Carlos Molina is the classic example of a fighter who took the hard road, earning his world title shot. In December 2005, when his record was 9-1, he was essentially fed to then 23-0 Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. 

Molina ended up handing Chavez the first blemish of his career, a six-round draw that Molina probably deserved to win. 

Molina lost the rematch and lost two more fights in a row, including a February 2007 majority decision against Mike Alvarado. 

Molina's only loss in the past five years was a highly controversial DQ against James Kirkland in March 2012. He drew with Erislandy Lara in March 2011 and beat Kermit Cintron by unanimous decision in July 2011.

Ishe Smith has been around boxing a long time. He was on The Contender series, where he lost to Sergio Mora. He handed Pawel Wolak the first loss of his career back in August 2008 and beat Randall Bailey by decision, almost a decade ago, back when Bailey was among the most dangerous punchers in the sport. 

Smith lost a unanimous decision to Fernando Guerrero in July 2010 that I think he deserved to win. It was a close fight, so I won't say he got outright robbed, but I think if Smith had been the 23-year-old, undefeated contender, instead of the 32-year-old guy with a few losses, the judges would have scored for him that night.  

Smith has been friends with Floyd Mayweather since they were both teens and is a longtime sparring partner. His career has clearly benefited in recent years from his association with Mayweather, but he is also a hard-traveled veteran who has paid his dues. 

And his majority-decision victory over Cornelius Bundrage last February was a legitimate world championship performance. 

Strengths

Ishe Smith

Smith is a highly skilled boxer. He uses movement and sets up his punches intelligently.

He's got very solid defensive skills. 

Smith's time at the Mayweather Gym in Vegas has to be viewed as an edge. I've talked to numerous professional fighters about their training environments and how the winning culture of a gym can boost a career.

Smith has been around boxing's ultimate winning culture. He's also trained by Eddie Mustafa Muhammad, one of the sport's best.  

Carlos Molina

Molina is no power puncher, but he is a durable and active fighter who is not easily pushed around. His performances against fighters like Chavez Jr. and James Kirkland demonstrate he is a strong fighter. 

Molina is a fluid puncher and above-average ring general. He is good at controlling the tempo of a fight.

Weaknesses

Ishe Smith 

Smith uses movement well, but, at times, he gets a little stationary when exchanging. This can cause him to end up taking more punches than he needs to. 

Smith seems to be hitting his stride in his mid-30s, and that happens for some fighters, especially crafty ones like Smith. Still, it can be tough for a champion to hold onto his belt after he's old enough to legally serve as President of the United States. 

Carlos Molina 

Molina has a tendency to lunge. He is good at using his movement to disrupt an opponent, but, at times, he falls into predictable in-and-out patterns. 

Smith should have the skill to time Molina coming forward and catch him with a combination. 

Ishe Smith Will Win If...

Ishe Smith should try to draw Carlos Molina forward by feinting backward, then planting and catching Molina with either the lead hook or the right uppercut. He should unload with a quick flurry then circle away and reset. 

Smith is a physically durable light middleweight, but I think he should avoid clinching with Molina as much as possible. Molina is the stronger fighter, and if they end up muscling around in close, he's going to end up grabbing the better angles to unload from. 

To win this fight, Smith is going to have to land aggressively, then shift position and land again. It takes boxing IQ and excellent conditioning to win that kind of fight, but at this point in his career, Smith should still have both. 

Carlos Molina Will Win the Fight If...

Carlos Molina does a good job using his movement to disrupt an opponent. Smith will try to catch him coming forward, so he should look to mix in some feints.

Smith tends to circle, so if Molina can feint Smith into moving away, he might be able to walk him into an overhand right or lead hook. 

Molina is slightly shorter and has slightly less reach, but he's the thicker fighter. He should look to rough Smith up and turn the fight into a brawl whenever they move into close range.

In the later third of the fight, Molina should step on the gas and push the pace. 

Prediction

This is pretty close to a "pick-em" fight. Smith and Molina are both smart, veteran fighters and they both know how much is on the line for them here.

The winner isn't going to get the winner of Mayweather-Alvarez, but if Alvarez loses, the winner of Smith-Molina could be in position to get Canelo in his comeback fight.  

Smith is a great story in boxing, but I think Molina is one of the most underrated fighters in the light middleweight division.

A knockout is unlikely here, but the action should get heated down the stretch, with both men going all out to score and win rounds. 

Molina is the younger, stronger fighter, and I think he'll be able to wear Smith down over the later rounds. Smith will win rounds with his craft and should make things exciting late, but ultimately, I have to go with Molina.

*Prediction: Carlos Molina by decision, 115-113