Start Em Sit Em Week 1: Predicting Best Fringe Fantasy Plays This Weekend

You don’t want to overthink your Week 1 fantasy football lineup. Heck, you don’t want to ever overthink it.

Getting cute and messing with your roster too much is a recipe for disaster in fantasy football. You’ve got this brilliantly drafted team that you yourself picked with your own intellect and expertise, why sit your third-round pick in the first week of the season?

Instead of wasting the few seconds of attention-span you have left at this point by alphabetically listing the many reasons to start Tom Brady against the Buffalo Bills or Jamaal Charles against the Jacksonville Jaguars, I’m going to do something a little different.

If you’re not in a good spot this weekend because you drafted incompetently or you’re unsure about matchups, I’ve put together three scenarios that might help you out before you lock in your roster at 12:59 p.m. on Sunday afternoon.

Start ‘Em: QB Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

So you waited until the mid-rounds to snag a quarterback and now you’re left contemplating starting Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman in Week 1. You’re in luck!

The New York Jets had a massive overhaul defensively this season. While they may have found a promising cornerback to play opposite of Antonio Cromartie in Dee Milliner, their pass rush is a big concern again in 2013.

Freeman has a stout offensive line and a playmaker at running back in Doug Martin. His primary targets Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson are both more-than-capable of making the new-look Jets secondary pay.

Sit ‘Em: QB Eli Manning, New York Giants

Despite Eli Manning and the New York Giants winning at AT&T Stadium last year, the quarterback scored just seven fantasy points against the Dallas Cowboys in the victory. He threw for under 200 yards, was picked off once and didn’t find the end zone.

Then there’s the beefed up Cowboys’ secondary and new defensive scheme to consider. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 scheme has proven to be difficult for Manning in the past. According to Jonathan Clegg of The Wall Street Journal, Manning has played poorly against the alignment in the 12 times he has faced it in his career:

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In fact, in 12 career games against a Tampa 2 defense, Manning's passer rating has eclipsed 90.0 on just two occasions, he has surpassed 200 passing yards in a game only three times, and four of the eight worst performances of his career by quarterback rating came against the scheme Kiffin and Dungy developed in Tampa.

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There’s a lot of history and familiarity between these two teams, and Manning’s lack of success against the Tampa 2 doesn’t bode well for fantasy team this weekend.

Start ‘Em: WR Kenbrell Thompkins, New England Patriots

You want upside? I’ll show you upside.

Any questions? Many questions about the New England Patriots have centered on who is going to catch passes from Tom Brady this season. Wes Welker is gone, Brandon Lloyd is gone, Aaron Hernandez is gone and Rob Gronkowski isn’t back in the mix yet.

Someone has to step in, and Brady will reward whoever does by making them a fantasy football star. During the preseason, he caught 13 balls for 142 yards and was targeted more than any other Patriots player.

Buffalo, already not very good to begin with, is thin in its secondary without cornerback Stephon Gilmore and safety Jairus Byrd expected to miss Sunday’s game. Feel confident starting Thompkins as a WR3 or even W2 in most formats.

Sit ‘Em: WR Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills

If Jeff Tuel was getting the start, I would left Steve Johnson off of this list for the obvious nature of the situation. But with first-round pick E.J. Manuel ready to lead the Buffalo Bills this week, you have likely, and unfortunately, gotten your hopes up about his prospects this week.

Johnson has been a good option in the past, but you should stay far away from him until Manuel figures things out. With a banged up rookie signal-caller and a Patriots defense that limited him to just over 100 yards and no scores last year, it’s impossible to play Johnson in Week 1.

Start ‘Em: RB Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts

Vick Ballard wasn’t anything special in his rookie season. But if you’re in need of a back this weekend, he could be an interesting play against an Oakland Raiders defense that could potentially be the worst against the rush this season.

New offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton pledged to return the Indianapolis Colts’ identity to that of a “physical, downhill running football team,” per Craig Kelley of Colts.com.

And don’t worry too much about Ahmad Bradshaw in this one. ESPN’s Mike Wells said the recovering back won’t see much of the field in Week 1 after missing the entire preseason.

Even if Bradshaw does see some action, there should be plenty of points to go around for the Colts’ backfield against a defense that gave up 18.9 fantasy points per game—fifth-worst in the NFL—in 2012.

Sit ‘Em: RBs Bilal Powell/Chris Ivory, New York Jets

The only thing worse than relying on a New York Jets player for fantasy points this year is having to deal with a running back committee between two of their players.

Rex Ryan named Bilal Powell the team’s starting running back, but it’s understood that Chris Ivory will get his fair share of carries in the backfield, per ESPN’s Josina Anderson:

Their matchup isn’t very promising, either. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed a league-low 1,140 yards on the ground last season. They did give up 11 touchdowns, middle-of-the-road in terms of the rest of the league, but the Jets are a mess and will be lucky to find the end zone in any capacity on the Sunday.