Awful NBA Rookie Seasons We Almost Forgot About

Never, ever judge a player by his rookie season alone. There are some NBA stars from whom you never would have predicted greatness based on their inaugural years. We forget about them in the wake of the greatness that followed.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist didn’t have the rookie year Charlotte fans were hoping for. Thomas Robinson might seem like a failure right now. Kendall Marshall is looking like a massive disappointment.

Fear not! They may have great futures ahead of them still.

Some Hall of Famers had horrible rookie years. Others just seemed somewhat pedestrian. There are also current NBA All-Stars who were nothing to write home about in their first season.

I looked at some of them. Not all of these were horrendous, but none of them suggested the greatness that was in front of them after one season. Some were admittedly on the All-Rookie team, but let’s be honest—that’s not a very high bar.

To make this list, the players needed to average at least 18 minutes per game. They are ranked based on the difference between the number of win shares in their rookie season and their peak season. The year they were drafted is also provided at the top of each slide.

All stats and win shares were obtained from Basketball Reference.

Tony Parker, 2001, 3.8 Difference in Win Shares

In his rookie year, Tony Parker was not looking like a future MVP candidate or a future NBA Finals MVP winner. He averaged just 9.2 points and 4.3 assists per game. He shot just .419 from the field and .323 from the three-point line.

A dozen years later, he seems to continue to improve, becoming arguably one of the top two or three point guards in the game. He’s become the leader of the San Antonio Spurs offense, last season averaging 20.3 points and 7.6 assists per game while shooting .522 from the field.

His best years in terms of win shares came in 2006 and 2007, when he notched 9.6 each season. This season he would have surpassed that if he hadn’t been limited to 66 games.

He’s been to five All-Star games, been named to the All-NBA team three times, finished in the top 10 in MVP voting four times, and won an NBA Finals MVP. That’s not too shabby for a 28th pick who did nothing to impress his rookie year.

Bill Bradley, 1965, 5.9 Difference in Win Shares

Bill Bradley was widely regarded as the best player in college basketball his senior season, winning the 1965 NCAA AP Player of the Year.

However, there was one hiccup from the magna cum laude from Princeton. He wanted to utilize his Rhodes Scholarship and go to Oxford for two years. (What an idiot!) That, combined with his joining the Air Force reserves, delayed the start of his professional career two years.

When he finally did join the NBA, he only played 45 games because he started late. His play—perhaps in large part because of the time off—was disappointing, especially considering the high expectations placed upon him.

Bradley averaged just 8.0 points, 3.0 assists and 2.5 rebounds a game. Fortunately for Knicks fans, he didn’t peak there. He went on to have a Hall of Fame career highlighted by two NBA championships and one All-Star Game appearance.

His best season came in 1973, when he averaged 16.1 points, 4.5 assists and 3.7 boards a game.

After his NBA career, Bradley went back to his intellectual roots and served as a three-term senator from New Jersey.

Nate Thurmond, 1963, 6.4 Difference in Win Shares

When Nate Thurmond was taken with the third overall pick in 1964, the San Francisco Warriors were probably hoping for big, immediate dividends. They didn’t get them.

In his freshman season as a pro, Thurmond was not a game-changer. He averaged just 7.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game. While that rebounding number might seem large, in that era it was pretty ordinary. He was only 13th in the league and second on his team.

He also was horrible from the field, shooting just .395 from the field and .549 from the stripe. He had just 3.5 win shares on the season.

Thurmond got better, though. His best season in terms of win shares came in 1973, when he notched 9.9. He averaged 17.1 points per game and an equal number of rebounds that year.

In 1967, he averaged 18.7 points and 21.3 boards a contest. That was enough to finish second in the MVP voting. Overall, he was a seven-time All-Star and was named to the All-Defense team five times.

Joe Dumars,1985, 6.7 Difference in Win Shares

In terms of overall impact on the Detroit Pistons, you could argue that Joe Dumars is the greatest person in their history. He has been an instrumental part of all three championships. He was a starter for the first two, and as the GM, he was the architect of the third.

You’d never know what was in store for him and his club after his first season, though.

He averaged 9.4 points, 1.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists in his rookie year, notching only 3.2 win shares. That’s not horrid, but it’s not what you expect when you think of one of the cornerstone players of an entire franchise.

Dumars would go on to win an NBA Finals MVP, become a six-time All-Star, become a three-time member of the All NBA-Team, and get named to five All-Defense teams.

Rajon Rondo, 2006, 7.5 Difference in Win Shares

Rajon Rondo was probably not expected to do great things when he was drafted with the 21st pick out of Kentucky. In his first year, he didn’t exactly blow up those low expectations.

He averaged just 6.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists a game, although he also gradually worked his way into the starting lineup, securing the permanent full-time job for the last 21 games of the season.

Since then, Rondo has steadily improved his game to the point where he is now one of the elite point guards in the league. He’s been to the last four All-Star games and named to four All-Defense teams as well as one All-NBA team. His 28 triple-doubles in the regular season and postseason combined are second among active players.

His career high in win shares came in 2009 with 9.9. Over the last three seasons, he’s gradually assumed the leadership of the Boston Celtics, as first Ray Allen, and then Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were either let go or traded away.

It’s doubtful that many were looking at Rondo as the future leader of the franchise after his first year, but now it clearly rests on his shoulders.

Kevin McHale, 1980, 10.1 Difference in Win Shares

You wouldn’t have thought Kevin McHale was one of the 50 greatest players in history of the game by his frosh season, as he averaged just 10.0 points, 4.4 boards and 0.7 assists.

He amassed 4.7 win shares, which was a far cry from the career-high 14.8 he would reach in 1987, when he also averaged 26.1 points and 9.9 boards a game while leading the league with a .604 field-goal percentage.

He, Larry Bird and Robert Parish became known as the “Big Three” before there were any other “Big Threes.” They filled the moniker better than any since because they weren’t just big in stardom, they were big in stature. They were a massive frontcourt and the best group that has ever played together.

McHale made seven All-Star Games and was a three-time NBA Champion. He was named to six All-Defense teams. He also won the Sixth Man of the Year award twice.

It’s safe to say he finished better than he started.

Gary Payton, 1990, 10.5 Difference in Win Shares

The Seattle SuperSonics selected Gary Payton with the second pick of the 1990 draft, but he was only fourth among rookies in win shares. Felton Spencer, Derrick Coleman and Dee Brown all finished with better numbers than he did.

Even though he was the full-time starter from the beginning, Payton averaged just 7.2 points, 6.4 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game. He garnered only 3.4 win shares on the year.

Payton would grow and blossom over the rest of his career. In his best season a decade later in 2000, he would amass 13.9 win shares, by scoring 24.2 points, 8.9 assists and 6.5 rebounds a game. He added 1.9 steals. The only players who have ever posted similar numbers are Michael Jordan and LeBron James.

“The Glove” was also arguably the greatest defensive point guard ever. He totaled nine NBA All-Defensive teams in his career and won the Defensive Player of the Year in 1996. He was also a key cog on the Miami Heat team that won the franchise's first championship in 2006.

Scottie Pippen, 1987, 10.8 Difference in Win Shares

When the Chicago Bulls selected Scottie Pippen with the fifth pick of the 1987 draft, they were hoping he would be the companion Michael Jordan needed to win a title.

After his first season, those hopes looked like they might not come to fruition. He averaged just 7.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. He had just the eighth-best season among rookies that year.

He wasn’t even the best rookie on his team; Horace Grant claimed that.

Pippen, however, would develop into one-half of the greatest tandem in the history of the game, becoming “Robin” to Jordan’s “Batman.” Oscar Robertson is the only player in NBA history with more career points, rebounds and assists than he has.

Pippen’s best year was in 1997, when he racked up 13.1 win shares. He averaged 20.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists that year. He was named to seven All-Star games and 10 All-Defense teams.

And then there was that little matter of six NBA championships.

Walt Frazier, 1967, 12.1 Difference in Win Shares

Walt “Clyde” Frazier is one of the most enjoyable figures to ever play the game or call it on TV. His first season was hardly the most exciting in history, though.

In his rookie year he averaged just 9.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He shot only .451 from the field and .655 from the stripe.               

He would however, rapidly develop into one of the league’s best players. In just his third year, he finished fourth in MVP voting.

His best year statistically came in 1971, when he averaged 21.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game. He totaled 15.6 win shares that season.

He also led the New York Knicks to their first-ever NBA title in 1970.

He had arguably the greatest game ever by a Knickerbocker. It occurred in a contest commonly known for what another player, Willis Reed, did. Reed heroically came out and played the first few minutes of Game 7 of the finals with a torn muscle. However, he was unable to proceed.

So Frazier took over and scored 36 points and added 19 assists in one of the great postseason performances in the history of the league.

John Stockton, 1984, 12.5 Difference in Win Shares

If you need proof that a player can’t be defined by his first year in the league, look no further than John Stockton, one of the greatest to ever play his position.

During his first season, he averaged just 5.6 points and 5.1 assists per game.

In fact, through his first three seasons he was mostly a backup player, and he averaged a mere 7.1 points and 6.9 assists per game. Hardly anyone could have envisioned that the future all-time leader in both assists and steals was wasting away on the bench behind Rickey Green (who has the distinction of scoring the five-millionth point in NBA history.)

Stockton would eventually crack the starting lineup, and when he did, there was no looking back. In his first nine years as a starter, he led the NBA in total assists and assists per game. Over that span, he averaged 13.1 assists per game. He had five of the top six assist seasons in history, and eight of the top 11.

When he retired, he was the only NBA player who is the all-time leader in two of the five major statistical categories, assists and steals. He has 50 percent more dimes than any player in history with the exception of Jason Kidd, whom he outpaced by a “mere” 20 percent.

It may be one of the most unbreakable career records in professional sports.

To put it in perspective, Kidd would have had to play almost five more seasons, averaging 10 assists per game, to pass Stockton. Magic Johnson, if he hadn’t retired, would have to play until he was 38 without missing any games or seeing any decline in production.

Stockton also generated more than 51,323 points either through passing or scoring, the most of any player in history (original research determined by adding total points + 2 * assists).

And perhaps, in one of the most underappreciated things about his career, he was one of the most durable players the game has ever seen. Over the course of his 19-year career, he played in every game 17 times.

He played 82 games 16 times. A.C. Green did that 14 times. No one else did it more than 10 times.

That’s not bad for a guy who was taken with the 16th pick and spent the first three years of his career “pining” on the bench.