Australia vs. New Zealand: Where the Game Will Be Won

Earlier in the buildup to this 2013 Rugby Championship opening game, fans were savoring the prospect of Australian maverick Quade Cooper facing New Zealand star Dan Carter. 

But the returning bad boy against the proven skills of an All Black legend is a matchup we must continue waiting for because Carter is out with a calf injury and Cooper is named on the bench.

Instead, new Wallabies coach Ewen McKenzie has handed a debut cap to Brumbies Matt Toomua while Aaron Cruden of Waikato Chiefs replaces Carter.

This is just one of the areas where the game will be won or lost. 

Cruden vs. Toomua at No. 10

These two know each other well from their Super 15 encounters and their relative performances will have a significant impact on the outcome.

Cruden is enjoying the best season of his career, and already this year has guided the All Blacks to two victories over France and a Super 15 title, outplaying Carter in the semifinal.

All Blacks coach Steve Hansen certainly has no worries over his No. 10, as reported by Fairfax News on Stuff.co.nz:

"

We are really fortunate that we have more than one world class five eighth," All Blacks coach Steve Hansen said.

Aaron has been on top of his game all season and has just going through two major [Super Rugby] matches with a lot of intensity and pressure.

He's ready to rumble and he's also played a couple of tests this year so he understands what we're trying to do. He's part of the leadership group so it's business as usual.

"

Toomua has a more structured approach than Cruden (and Cooper), but McKenzie has suggested he will have a more attacking role for the Wallabies, as reported by Jamie Pandaram of the Herald Sun.

"

You guys have seen Matt play for the Brumbies, but we’ve done different things in training and seen other things, that’s all I’ll say.

We’ve said how we want to play the game, I’ve been impressed with what he can contribute.

We’re not going to play Brumbies rugby, we’re not going to play Reds rugby, we’ll see.

"

McKenzie is a canny operator so we should expect the unexpected, but Australia will need Toomua to play with the assurance that helped the Brumbies reach the Super 15 final if the Wallabies are to bounce back from the record 41-16 hammering by the British and Irish Lions in their last outing.

The pressure is on the 23-year-old debutant, especially as Cruden has already shown what he can do in an All Blacks jersey.

Front Row Battle

The much-documented failings of the Wallabies in the final Test with the Lions will also likely decide the outcome of this clash between two long-standing rivals.

Australia's front five, and especially their front row, were found wanting against a Lions pack that out-powered their rivals, especially at the scrum. 

Stephen Moore and Ben Alexander return from that defeat, and with James Slipper they must ensure that the Wallabies pack is at least competitive in the scrum. They must provide a solid platform so their back line has the opportunity to show what they can do.

The Wallabies have a knack of disguising their front-row failings against Southern Hemisphere opposition, particularly when referees from that part of the world are in charge. But the highly experienced All Blacks trio Tony Woodcock, Andrew Hore and Owen Franks will certainly look to expose similar weaknesses.

But the introduction of a new scrum ruling, which is being trialled in this year's Rugby Championship, could favour the Wallabies.

Instead of the now familiar "crouch, touch, set," referees will issue instructions to "crouch, bind, set," thus taking away the much-maligned "first hit" which many believed had the impact of destabilizing scrums.

The IRB claims the new instructions will de-power the scrums by 25 percent, but rugby's governing body has a decidedly dodgy track record when it comes to officiating the scrum and the reality is that nobody knows what the impact will be.

One hopes it might bring about a return to the more traditional scrum battle that teams used to enjoy, though one suspects it will favour the weaker front rows, in which case it may benefit the Wallabies.

Ewen McKenzie vs. Steve Hansen

No one can dispute that the All Blacks have been the team to beat for some time now (when are they not?), but Australians know their close neighbours so well that they do not hold them in quite the same awe as other teams.

These trans-Tasman rivals have been competing for more than 80 years and although New Zealand have the superior record in their meetings, that means little to Ewen McKenzie's men.

Australia have beaten the All Blacks enough times not to feel intimidated (they have won two and drawn one of their last six games) and their mindset is that if they get it right on the day then they will win.

This is where the head coaches will play such a crucial role. McKenzie is a proven man-manager and his side will not be wanting for confidence and a game plan to take on the All Blacks.

Hansen, meanwhile, was the first to start the mind games with a few barbs directed in the Wallabies' direction, as reported by Fairfax Media:

"

He's in a difficult situation, isn't he. I'm imagining when [former coach] Robbie Deans wasn't picking Quade Cooper he was saying, 'I'll pick you, I'll pick you'.

Now our information is he's going to pick the other bloke [Toomua]. There are only two reasons he wouldn't want to tell them.

One, he's not sure himself, or two, he doesn't think they can cope with the pressure of being out there in the public too early.

So it's not affecting us. It doesn't bother me a hoot who they play.

"

Prediction

New Zealand will win by nine points.

The Wallabies will bounce back in the Rugby Championship and prove they are not as bad a side as the Lions made them look in the final Test.

However, the All Blacks have no weak links and will continue their winning ways despite playing away from home.