The Ashes 2013: How Weather Forecast Will Impact Play on Day 2 at Durham

England have already got the Ashes in the bag, but if they want to get anything from the fourth Test they will have to do so without help from the weather gods.

The hosts won the opening two Tests before being saved by rain at Old Trafford to secure a series victory.

It’s been a turbulent Ashes with the umpires, weather and DRS stealing the majority of the headlines. Even when the players are mentioned it’s often due to scandal rather than performance with Stuart Broad’s refusal to walk the standout example.

The hosts need only avoid defeat in the fourth Test to win the series outright but they will have to improve on their last match—where they were outplayed by the Aussies—as a downpour spared their fall.

England got off to a slow start on day one in Durham, losing Joe Root early on before Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott steadied proceedings and got their total moving. They were plodding along steadily until a collection of bizarre shots unhinged their innings and left Australia in command at the close.

Aside from a possible shower on Saturday afternoon it is set to be sunny throughout the rest of the match—although given England’s unpredictable nature there’s always a chance of storms drifting in at a moment’s notice.

Should it stay cloudy and humid, expect first the Aussie bowling attack and then England, fronted by James Anderson, to utilise the conditions. By polishing one side of the ball the bowlers can get it to swing in the muggy conditions as the ball’s trajectory will be slightly altered due to the shiny and rough sides picking up different airflows.

Although the margins are tiny, it is these differences that can make the difference between a batsman edging to the slips or driving through cover for a boundary.

But should it prove tricky for the swing bowlers to make a breakthrough then Graeme Swann will come into his own—especially if cracks start appearing on the wicket.

Swann will look to test the patience of the Aussie order by offering tempting deliveries that suddenly move at the last. If the Aussies notch a run rate similar to that of England on day one, then Swann should get cheap wickets off some frustrated opponents.

The picture changes if rain falls at Durham, light showers are expected on Saturday afternoon, but with sun the forecast for the majority of the weekend both teams can rack up runs at a pedestrian rate with no need to race towards a hefty total.