Adrian Hernandez vs. Atsushi Kakutani: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

On August 31 in Mexico City, WBC light flyweight champion Adrian Hernandez will face challenger Atsushi Kakutani of Japan. Hernandez is among the top fighters in the world below 112 pounds. The Ring ranks him No. 5 at light flyweight, and Boxrec.com has him No. 2.

The fighters in the lowest weight classes hardly ever get the attention they deserve. But the fans in fight-crazy Mexico know how to appreciate a smaller warrior, and the Asia-Pacific region where Kakutani comes from is traditionally very strong in the lowest weight classes.

A nice showing by Hernandez in this fight could lead to a very exciting showdown with pound-for-pound entrant and WBA light flyweight champion Roman Gonzalez of Nicaragua.

Tale of the Tape

Per Boxrec.com	Adrian Hernandez	Atsushi Kakutani
Record:	27-2-1, 16 KOs	13-3-1, 6 KOs
Height:	5'8"	5'6.5"
Reach:	71"	unlisted
Weight:	108 pounds	108 pounds
Age:	27	28
Stance:	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown:	Toluca, Mexico	Osaka, Japan
Rounds:	172	74

Both of these fighters have excellent length for light flyweights. Hernandez has the dimensions of a welterweight.

Hernandez has better reach than Canelo Alvarez, Devon Alexander and Timothy Bradley, among other fighters who outweigh him by 40 or more pounds.  

Hernandez is a much more experienced professional fighter, but the Asia-Pacific region is a hotbed for the lowest weight classes, and Kakutani has had quality rounds, even if this fight does represent a significant step up for him.

Main Storylines

Adrian Hernandez is the WBC light flyweight champion, a title he first won from veteran Gilberto Keb Baas in April of 2011. Although he’s been a world champion for most of the last two years, at this point I would still rate him as a solid rung below Donnie Nietes and Roman Gonzalez on the 108-pound ladder.

In December of 2011, he traveled to Thailand and engaged in an exciting battle with Kompayak Porpramook. Hernandez faded late and was knocked out in Round 10.

In October of 2012, Hernandez had a rematch with Porpramook in Toluca, Mexico. This time the fight was almost all Hernandez. He knocked Porpramook down in Round 3 and stopped him in Round 6.

Atsushi Kakutani turned professional in 2008 and had his first scheduled 10-round fight a little over a year ago, when he challenged Teiru Kinoshita for the Japanese super flyweight title. He made a respectable showing, losing by split decision to his undefeated countryman.

Kakutani has lost twice in his career by early stoppage. He lost by second-round KO against Mamoru Honda in July 2009 and came out on the wrong end of a wild shootout with Filipino Warlito Parrenas in June 2011 when he was stopped in Round 1.

Strengths

Adrian Hernandez has above-average reach for a welterweight fighter. He strings his punches together in fluid combinations and is able to score heavily from outside range, middle distance and on the inside.

His length gives him leverage and allows him to generate power with both hands.

Hernandez has fought all over the world, against a high level of competition. At 27, he is a well-traveled world champion.

Atsushi Kakutani is a high-energy volume puncher. He has decent power for a lower-weight fighter.

Although he is not as experienced as Hernandez, he has fought a respectable level of domestic competition in Japan as well as international prospects from the Asia-Pacific region.

Weaknesses

Adrian Hernandez’s height and reach are an advantage, but you can have too much of a good thing. At 5’8” and 108 pounds, he’s got the physical dimensions of a fashion model.

Tough as he is, it’s hard not to view him as somewhat frail. In his first fight against Porpramook, the Thai was able to muscle inside much of the fight.

I also wonder how much the weight cut adversely affects Hernandez’s conditioning. In the heat of Thailand, he clearly seemed to fade in the later rounds against Porpramook. Mexico City is likely to be hot in August.

Atsushi Kakutani has fought just 17 times and been knocked out inside of two rounds twice. That’s not exactly a stellar record for a world title challenger.

Against Warlito Parrenas he showed a very bad habit of dropping his lead left hand when returning his jab. The Filipino exploited it effortlessly and Hernandez would have little trouble doing the same with his 71” reach.

Adrian Hernandez Will Win If...

Adrian Hernandez is fighting an opponent with far less experience who will have traveled halfway across the planet to face him. He should jump on Kakutani early and deny him the opportunity to get comfortable.

Hernandez should look to time Kakutani and catch him with a stiff jab or sweeping hook as he attempts to move into range. He should watch for the Japanese fighter to drop his hands and be ready to light him up when he does.

With Hernandez’s reach and experience advantage, he should try to string together multiple-punch combinations while controlling range and keeping Kakutani at the end of his punches.

When he has Kakutani under pressure, he should look to pressure him harder. Hernandez should look to end this fight in dramatic fashion to earn a more high-profile fight within the division.

Atsushi Kakutani Will Win If...

Atsushi Kakutani is going to need to tread the line between fighting smart and rolling the dice when the right opportunities line up. The first thing he needs to do is make sure he’s not dropping his lead hand when he returns the jab.

He should be able to avoid that by doubling up on the jab in order to force his way inside on the extremely tall Hernandez. Hernandez has a very thin torso and Kakutani should try to pound away on it.

In close, Kakutani should look to turn the fight into a shootout. His best chance to beat the more experienced and skilled Hernandez is to catch him with a few big punches.

His best chance for doing that is to draw Hernandez into a wild, fast-paced exchange.

Predicition

Picking a winner in the lowest weight classes rarely seems like a sure thing to me. They fight in relative obscurity, and the fast-paced style of most of the fights below 115 makes upsets more likely.

But in this case, I don’t see how Adrian Hernandez can lose. The WBC champion has lost twice in his career by knockout, but one of those knockouts came five years ago when he was still learning his craft, and the other one happened against Kompayak Porpramook, one of the best 108-pound fighters in the world over the past several years.

Kakutani is inexperienced and has already shown a dangerous tendency to get caught by big punches early. If he can fight a high-energy fight on the inside and sap Hernandez’s energy by pounding the body, maybe he’ll have a chance.

But Porpramook wasn’t able to do that to Hernandez the second time around, so I don’t see Kakutani getting the job done now.

Hernandez is a rising fighter in the light flyweight division. His extreme height and reach would make him a very intriguing matchup for the hard-slugging dynamo, Roman Gonzalez.

Adrian Hernandez by Round 4 KO.