PGA Championship Odds 2013: Handicapping the Field at Oak Hill

Even before his domination at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Tiger Woods was the prohibitive favorite to win the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club this week.

After a seven-shot victory at Firestone Country Club on Sunday, he’s the man by leaps and bounds. In fact, Golfodds.com has Tiger favored at 7-2.

That said, the 14-time major winner has been the bookmakers' pick more often than not in the past five years, but he has gone winless in golf’s biggest events.

Chasing Tiger in the odds are the likes of British Open champion Phil Mickelson, 2013 Masters winner Adam Scott and former major winners such as Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose and Keegan Bradley.

We don’t recommend putting your hard-earned cash on any of these guys, but if you’re determined to do so, here are 10 players to gamble on at Oak Hill this week and why you might win or lose by backing them.

Luke Donald: 30-to-1

Why He’ll Win

If Luke Donald can manage to get off to a solid start in the PGA Championship, he can be a significant threat in the season’s final major.

He did that at the U.S. Open two months ago and was in contention for his first major championship until midway through the final round.  

The Englishman is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, ranking fifth in overall putting stats. If his iron play is on and he's giving himself enough chances to attack from the fairways, he'll have opportunities for that putter to carry him for four rounds.

If that happens early enough, Donald can gain confidence at Oak Hill and will find himself poised for that breakthrough moment late on Sunday.

Why He Won’t

Too many times in majors, the relatively short-hitting Donald is simply overwhelmed by the length of the host venues. Oak Hill won’t be any different.

Donald will have to hit driver often this week, and if he’s not dialed in off the tee, even his great putting won't save him from big scores that would quickly take him out of the tournament.

Even if he’s hitting the tight fairways, Donald will face longer iron plays to Oak Hill’s challenging greens, and that will limit his quality birdie opportunities in relation to his competition.

The Better Bet

We like Donald’s game in regular PGA Tour events. In majors, however, his lack of power is something we can’t bet on.

Donald won’t be a factor at Oak Hill and will head into 2014 still seeking that first major championship.

Keegan Bradley: 30-to-1

Why He'll Win

Keegan Bradley burst onto the scene by winning the 2011 PGA Championship at the Atlanta Athletic Club.

The talented American is looking to elevate his stature as a multiple-major winner by repeating the effort this week at Oak Hill Country Club.

Bradley played well at Firestone Country Club this past weekend, finishing second to Tiger Woods, and he has six top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season.

The long-hitting American has the game to contend at Oak Hill if he can keep the ball in the fairway—as he did often at Firestone—and take advantage of scoring opportunities as they come.

To do that, his putter will have to get hot, just as it did in 2011 when he made just about everything he looked at down the stretch.

Why He Won’t

Bradley hasn't exactly been on fire during the majors this season. In fact, his best finish in golf’s biggest events is a tie for 15th last month at the Open Championship, where he was never really in serious contention.  

He finished in a tie for 54th at the Masters and missed the U.S. Open cut at Merion Golf Club back in June.

Those performances, coupled with the fact that Bradley hasn't won since the 2012 Bridgestone Invitational, don’t inspire a world of confidence this week at Oak Hill.

The Better Bet

Bradley seems close to putting everything together, and in addition to his 2011 PGA Championship win, he finished in a tie for third last year at Kiawah Island.

He’ll have to drive the ball straight and make more putts than he has in previous majors this year, but we'll see a strong challenge and perhaps a top-five finish out of Bradley this week in New York.

Hunter Mahan: 30-to-1

Why He'll Win

If recent form is any indication, Hunter Mahan is poised to capture his first career major championship.

He has the game and the experience. Now, all he needs is a better finish.

Mahan was part of Sunday’s final pairing at both the 2013 U.S. Open and British Open, and he held the 36-hole lead a week ago at the Canadian Open before withdrawing to join his wife for the birth of their first child.

The talented Texan is in top form and has the power and accuracy to succeed at Oak Hill Country Club this week.

He ranks eighth in total driving, and his short game has been good enough to capitalize on the opportunities when they come.

He just needs to do a little more of that on Sunday for that breakthrough moment.

Why He Won’t

We like Mahan because he's been in contention in the past two majors. We don’t like his chances because of the way he finished those events.

After getting off to a rough start at Muirfield, Mahan couldn't turn things around and was never a factor in the final round at the British Open. A month earlier at the U.S. Open, he was steady early but faded down the stretch.

One might call those two efforts learning processes. A less optimistic person, however, looks at them as a trend moving in the wrong direction.

Whatever the perspective, those two final-round performances don’t provide much optimism for a Mahan breakthrough if he contends again this week at Oak Hill.

The Better Bet

Becoming a father for the first time has undoubtedly changed Mahan's world significantly.

Given that and the fact that he's only played 36 holes since the British Open disappointment, it's difficult to expect Mahan to contend on Sunday for a third straight major.

His day will come; it just won’t be at Oak Hill this week.

Rory McIlroy: 25-to-1

Why He'll Win 

Remember how dominant Rory was in winning the 2012 PGA Championship?

Well, that great player is still in there somewhere, and perhaps McIlroy will find the confidence to let him out at Oak Hill Country Club this weekend.

Yes, McIlroy has had a forgettable 2013 season, especially in the majors. That said, he does own four top 10s on the PGA Tour this season, including a second place at the Valero Texas Open. Additionally, the 25-year-old showed signs of improvement this week Firestone despite finishing at two over.

Removed from all the criticism he endured in Europe several weeks ago, Rory may well relax this week, which will allow him to putt better, scramble more effectively and ultimately find himself in contention in the final round of a major for the first time in a year.

Why He Won't

Yes, McIlroy was improved at Firestone but not nearly enough to believe he's ready to defend his 2012 PGA title at Oak Hill. 

In his past 10 major rounds, McIlroy is a combined 28 over par, including a cut-missing 12-over performance in the British Open just a few weeks ago. 

The confidence with his new Nike Clubs simply hasn't come yet, and we're betting his mental fatigue from a brutal 2013 season is just too much to overcome at a difficult course like Oak Hill.

The Best Bet

The PGA Championship will be Rory's best major of the year. Unfortunately for the world's third-ranked player, that isn't saying much and won't be enough for a successful defense of his 2012 triumph.

Brandt Snedeker: 25-to-1

Why He’ll Win

This side of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, it’s hard to find an American having a better 2013 season than Brandt Snedeker.

The Nashville native has won twice on the PGA Tour this year, including last week at the Canadian Open, and he's finished in the top 10 six other times.

While he remains winless in majors, he was in the mix at both the Masters and the British Open earlier this year, and he certainly has the game to compete at Oak Hill Country Club.

Snedeker is one of the best putters on tour, and if he can play from the short grass next week, he’ll give himself plenty of good looks at birdie on what should be some speedy Oak Hill greens.

Why He Won’t

Snedeker’s all-around game is solid, but his lack of length puts pressure on his driver. That sometimes results in wayward tee shots that can bring big numbers at the wrong time.

In the second round of the British Open, Snedeker, who ranks just 149th in driving distance on tour, was in the thick of things before three double bogeys and a triple dropped him down the leaderboard and essentially out of the tournament.

While his longer-hitting competition can avoid the driver off many tees at Oak Hill, Snedeker will be forced to hit the club more often than not, increasing the likelihood similar disasters will derail him in the PGA Championship.

The Better Bet

It seems too much to ask of Snedeker to consistently avoid trouble when having to hit with the driver off almost every tee at Oak Hill. Given that, it’s a top 10 for Snedeker, but that first major will likely have to wait.

Lee Westwood: 25-to-1

Why He’ll Win

Before things went sideways on Sunday, Lee Westwood was in great form for 54 holes at the 2013 British Open.

He was solid off the tee, his iron play gave him plenty of scoring opportunities, and he capitalized enough on them with his putter to take a two-shot lead into the final round.

If Westwood can duplicate that performance and then extend it for just 18 more holes at Oak Hill Country Club, he has a great shot to win his first career major championship.

As it is in most majors for Westwood, the key to victory at Oak Hill will be his putting. If the veteran Englishman can hole enough putts he will be in contention down the stretch.

Once there, Westwood simply needs to relax, take the good with the bad and let his talent lead him to that breakthrough victory.

Why He Won’t

After starting the final round with that two-shot lead, Westwood struggled in the final round of the Open Championship, and it appeared the sting of that loss was still with the Englishman at Firestone Country Club this past weekend.

No one yearns more for a major championship than Westwood, and it's possible the former world No. 1 is pressing so much that he can't get out of his own way.

If he plays that way at Oak Hill, he’ll find trouble all over the course. Although his short game is improved, it’s not good enough to consistently bail Westwood out of trouble.

The Better Bet

Westwood was wound way too tight in the final round of the British Open at Muirfield and it showed both in his decision making and shot execution. The veteran undoubtedly understands time is ticking on his quest to win a first major and it’s interfering with his play.

Given what happened at Muirfield last month, it’s tough to bet on Westwood breaking through so soon after such disappointment.

Justin Rose: 25-to-1

Why He'll Win

Outside of a head-scratching performance in the British Open, Justin Rose has been striking the ball as well as he ever has, a fact evidenced by his first major victory in the U.S. Open back in June.

The formula has been simple for Rose: drive it long and straight and then fire accurate approach shots to the green.

In fact, the Englishman ranks first in total driving and 12th in greens in regulation on the PGA Tour this year.

That’s a pretty lethal combination when it comes to challenging in major championships. It's also one we expect will keep Rose in the mix the entire way at Oak Hill this week.

Why He Won’t

Not unexpectedly, Rose has struggled a bit since that U.S. Open victory at Merion Golf Club.

The Englishman missed the cut at the British Open and was never a factor this past weekend in the Bridgestone Invitational, finishing at one under.

The primary culprit has been putting, and that’s not a good sign for this week at Oak Hill.

In fact, outside of his U.S. Open victory, Rose has struggled on the greens. He currently ranks 142nd in strokes gained putting and is 127th in putting overall.

If Rose can’t roll the rock with better success during the PGA Championship, it won’t matter how many fairways and greens he hits at Oak Hill this week.

The Better Bet

Rose’s victory at the U.S. Open keeps him in high regard, but his missed cut at Muirfield and pedestrian performance this past weekend at Firestone keeps his stock down here.

We expect a top-25 showing for Rose but would be surprised with a late Sunday charge toward the Wanamaker Trophy.  

Adam Scott: 15-to-1

Why He’ll Win

While he hasn't exactly played a busy schedule, Adam Scott has kept the majority of the fine form that won him the 2013 Masters and is a significant threat to add another major title this week at the PGA Championship.

Scott briefly held the lead in the final round of the British Open and played well at Firestone this past weekend. He ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in total driving, and his mixture of power and accuracy will play well at Oak Hill Country Club.

With his confidence high, the talented Aussie will avoid the big mistakes at the PGA Championship, and if his putter can get just a little bit hot, he’ll be around late on Sunday.

Why He Won’t

The greens at Oak Hill are a challenging set, and when Scott struggles, it’s due in large part to his putting stroke.

The Aussie ranks 113th in strokes gained putting, meaning he isn't saving a lot of shots with his belly putter, nor is he making many unexpected putts .

If he’s not putting particularly well, it will put significant pressure on Scott’s iron play to get the ball close to pins, and that could cause some miscues when the pressure ramps up.

The Better Bet

Scott finished in the top 25 the last time the PGA Championship was held at Oak Hill in 2003, and we expect a much stronger finish this go-around.

In fact, if he putts well, he is a likely candidate to end the 2013 majors the same way he began them—as a champion.

Phil Mickelson: 12-to-1

Why He’ll Win

There’s no doubt Phil Mickelson was still suffering from a British Open hangover at Firestone this past weekend, but count on Lefty having a clear mind and singular focus at Oak Hill Country Club.

Coming off his first career Open Championship triumph, Mickelson’s game has never been better. He’s driving the ball well, his iron play is spot on and his short game remains absolute genius.

He didn't sink enough putts to contend at the Bridgestone Invitational, but the lure of a second Wanamaker Trophy will get that straightened out on Oak Hill’s challenging greens.

Why He Won’t

It’s been a pressing summer for Lefty, and one has to wonder how much he has left in the tank heading to Oak Hill.

Before his emotional British Open victory at Muirfield, Mickelson finished tied for second in the U.S. Open at Merion Golf Club.

Despite Phil's stature and competitive drive, a third straight run at a major championship might just be too much to ask for. His game is in too good a shape not to contend, but getting four solid rounds together will be difficult for Lefty.

The Better Bet

Phil’s swing looked good at Bridgestone, but his putter was off, and that will prove to be a problem again this week at Oak Hill.

Mickelson will hang around enough to keep the pressure on, but the tank will likely empty at some point on Saturday or Sunday for the game's most popular player.

Tiger Woods: 7-to-2

Why He’ll Win

If Tiger's overwhelming victory at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational is any indication, the world’s top-ranked player is more than poised to win his first major championship since 2008.

Unlike the U.S. Open at Merion Golf Club, Woods heads into the PGA Championship healthy. Unlike the British Open, he arrives at Oak Hill Country Club on a wave of momentum after his eighth victory at the Bridgestone.

Albeit not necessarily with his driver, Woods is finding fairways more often than not, and that is increasing his scoring opportunities. His iron play is dialed in, and his putter was spicy hot at Firestone.

If that dangerous concoction of dominance remains in play at Oak Hill this week, Tiger could very well waltz to his 15th major the same way he did his 18th World Golf Championship triumph this past Sunday.

Why He Won’t

Pure and simple, Tiger isn't the closer he once was. In fact, he’s not even close.

In the past seven majors, Tiger is a combined 13 under par in the first the two rounds. In eight of those 14 starts, he shot under par.

By stark contrast, Woods is a cumulative 23 over in the third and fourth rounds, a troubling reality that has absolutely kept him from winning that elusive 15th major championship.

There’s no denying the pressure to win a first major since the 2008 U.S. Open is taking its toll on Woods as recent majors have worn on.

Until he proves otherwise, it's fair to assume it will remain a significant hurdle to overcome if, as expected, he finds himself in contention for a fifth PGA Championship this weekend. 

The Better Bet

Woods is too good not to get his weekend woes figured out. Given the way he played at Firestone, our treasured cash is on him to get it right at Oak Hill this coming weekend.