MLB's 25 Most Overrated Performances of the 1st Half

Believe it or not, your eyes may be deceiving you.

There are many players in Major League Baseball who put together strong starts to the season. But the problem is that several of those players don’t deserve all of the credit you’ve been giving them. These are the players who we’re going to deem overrated for the purpose of this article.

But how do we know who’s overrated and who’s just having a great year?

Well, I took a look at all of the qualified hitters and analyzed inflated BABIPs that weren’t likely to be sustainable and compared them to previous years for non-rookies. For qualified pitchers, I looked at large gaps between a pitcher’s ERA and his FIP, comparing them to other arms in the league and their previous numbers.

For those unfamiliar with these terms, FanGraphs provides a brilliant glossary for everything you need to know.

There will be many disagreements with this list of players, but the numbers speak for themselves. Some guys just haven’t been as good as you think they have been, and I’m here to show you why. Here’s a look at the 25 most overrated players of the first half of the 2013 season.

*All statistics in this article were obtained via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Jeff Locke, Pittsburgh Pirates

Jeff Locke is doing a lot of winning and not a lot of losing this year for the Pirates, which is one of the main reasons they’re one of the top teams in the league.

Through 17 starts, Locke is 8-1 with a 2.12 ERA across 102 innings of work. Either he’s the next big thing in baseball or he’s pitching a little better than he should be.

While Locke’s ERA is at 2.12, which is incredible, his FIP and xFIP suggest that he’s been pitching a little bit better than he should be.

His FIP is high because he’s been walking 3.88 batters per nine innings and is only striking out just over six. He won’t be pitching like an ace for the remainder of the 2013 season.

Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers

Jhonny Peralta has never hit higher than .299 in a season entering 2013. Last year, the Tigers shortstop hit an abysmal .239 through 150 games.

This year, he’s on pace to set a new career high with a .307 batting average. But while he’s come close to hitting .300 in the past, he isn’t really a .300 hitter.

Peralta is a .267 career hitter with a .314 BABIP in 10-plus years in the big leagues. His BABIP has skyrocketed to .385 this season, meaning that’s he’s been getting extremely lucky with many of his hits, and that’s why his average is so high. Peralta is bound to see his .307 average fall in the second half.

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles

Chris Tillman might be the most overrated pitcher in baseball this season. The right-hander is 10-2 on the year through 17 starts. He’s already set a new career high in wins and is a few more shy of tying his total from the previous four seasons combined. But his ERA isn’t spectacular, as it currently sits at 3.68.

Tillman’s 4.98 FIP and 4.29 xFIP indicate that he’s not been too good in 2013. The main reason why is because he’s already given up 18 home runs this year, which is astonishing. Do you want to know why the Baltimore starter has 10 wins? Well, it’s probably because he gets 5.49 runs of support each start. No, Tillman isn’t an ace.

Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox

Mike Napoli has never been much of a contact hitter. He’s the type of guy who’s not going to hit for average but will definitely hit a lot of home runs—which is why teams find him so valuable.

This season, Napoli is hitting a bit higher than his career average, but in fact, he should be hitting much worse.

Through 78 games, Napoli is sporting a .261 batting average, which is .002 higher than his career average and .034 higher than last season. But Napoli has gotten either extremely lucky or the defenses the Red Sox have played have been horrible. Napoli’s .376 BABIP suggests that he should be hitting much worse than .261.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks

Patrick Corbin was one of the best stories throughout the first half of the season, as many kept watching to see if the kid was ever going to lose a game. Well, he eventually did, but starting the year off at 9-1 is nothing to scoff at. While the lefty has been solid on the mound, he hasn’t really been perfect.

Corbin isn’t a big strikeout guy, and he doesn’t have the best command in baseball either. In 115.2 innings of work, he’s walked 30 batters and served up eight home runs—which why he has a 3.33 FIP and a 3.74 xFIP. Those numbers are still great, but it’s still a bit early to be crowning him as one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

Brett Gardner is having a solid year for the Yankees when the team needs him most. He’s already tied his career high in home runs and is 16 RBI from tying another personal best.

But this season, Gardner is rarely walking, he’s striking out a ton, and his BABIP for the season is quite a bit higher than his career average.

In 84 games, the New York outfielder is hitting .281, which is .013 higher than his career average. While that’s not a huge jump, it’s up for debate as to whether he can keep it up. Aside from last season when he played 16 games, Gardner currently has the highest BABIP of his career. His average should start to drop soon.

Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals

Jeremy Guthrie has had a terrible couple of years in recent memory, but at 7-6 this season, things haven’t been as bad. His 4.29 ERA isn’t very pretty, but it’s better than the 4.76 ERA he posted a year ago.

Right now, he’s just a tad higher than his career ERA. But his ERA should probably be much, much higher.

Guthrie is currently sporting a 5.76 FIP, which is just terrible. The problem is that Guthrie’s success hasn’t been his doing.

The right-hander rarely strikes out anyone, and he’s given up 20 home runs in 107 innings this year. That’s not going to help him win many games or set a new career best in ERA.

Seth Smith, Oakland Athletics

Oakland has relied on Seth Smith to play a large role this season, and he hasn’t let his team down. In 71 games, he’s hitting .278/.350/.424 with six home runs and 32 RBI.

It seems unlikely that he’s going to be hitting that well all season long. For once, he’s hitting ground balls nearly 44 percent of the time, which is very high.

Secondly, Smith’s BAPIP has never been as high as it currently is, which explains why he’s hitting more consistently than he usually does.

His BABIP is nearly .050 higher than his career average, meaning this guy is getting a bunch of lucky hits this year. Last year, he hit .240 in 125 games. Don’t be surprised if he hits it this year too.

Ervin Santana, Kansas City Royals

Ervin Santana was absolutely horrible for the Angels last season, as he went 9-13 in 30 starts with a 5.16 ERA. This year, now with the Royals, he’s been a completely different pitcher.

While he’s only 5-5 through 16 starts, his ERA has dropped significantly to 2.84. That’s a ton of improvement in just a few months.

Santana isn’t completely out of the water yet, though. He still needs to work on a few things. Most important, he’s serving up way too many home runs.

He currently is tied for 14th in the league with 14 home runs, which is the main reason why he has a 3.89 FIP. He must keep the ball in the park—too many pitches are going for home runs.

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies

Ryan Howard is having a decent year for the Phillies, bouncing back nicely after an injury-plagued 2012. This season, he’s hitting .266/.319/.457 with 10 home runs and 42 RBI through 79 games. But his slash line is definitely going to start dropping very soon. He’s gotten much luckier than he has in years past.

Howard is already hitting lower than his career average—.266 compared to .271. But his BABIP is .355 this year when his career average is .324.

What does that tell us? It means that Howard’s .266 average isn’t very sustainable, and that no one should be surprised if his average in September is considerably lower than it is right now.

Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners

The Mariners may have found the guy to slot behind Felix Hernandez in the starting rotation, and that guy is Hisashi Iwakuma.

Iwakuma has been great for Seattle this season, as he’s 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA through 18 starts and 121.1 innings. Last season, he went 9-5 in 16 starts and 14 relief appearances, posting a 3.16 ERA.

Iwakuma has definitely been better than he was in 2012. His 3.16 ERA was nearly 1.2 runs lower than his FIP. This year, he has a 3.66 FIP, which is roughly just a run higher. Still, he’s giving up too many home runs, and that’s his biggest issue right now. He’s walked just 18 guys, but he’s already given up 17 home runs. 

Colby Rasmus, Toronto Blue Jays

Colby Rasmus isn’t the type of player who has gotten lot of lucky hits over the course of his career. If he was that type of player, his career BABIP would be much higher than .291. This season, however, the Toronto outfielder has gotten his fair share of hits, which he didn’t necessarily deserve.

Through 80 games in 2013, Rasmus is hitting .245, which isn’t very good at all, but that’s what he usually does—career average of .243.

But while he’s hitting how many would expect, his BABIP is at .325—which would suggest that he didn’t really earn that average and that other factors besides himself have played a big role.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds

Mike Leake is arguably having the best year of his young career in 2013. Through 16 starts, he’s 7-3 with a 2.52 ERA across 16 starts and 103.2 innings of work.

But the guy is getting more than four runs of support each time he takes the mound, so it isn’t very surprising to see that he’s winning more than he’s losing.

Leake has done a good job at keeping runners from scoring, but that’s still quite the gap between his ERA and his FIP, which is a bit concerning.

In fact, the difference between those two statistics is in the top 10 among qualified pitchers in the league. What’s keeping Leake back is that he doesn’t even strike out six batters per nine innings.

Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers

Some fast players tend to have high BABIPs, so it wouldn’t be shocking to find out that Carlos Gomez’s BABIP was high. But it really isn’t. In fact, his career BABIP is about where it should be at .312. This year, however, his BABIP sits at .370, which is one of the highest in the entire league.

Coming into this season, Gomez’s career high in batting average was at .260, and that was set last season.

So, Gomez just raised his batting average from .260 to .311 in half a season? I don’t think so. Maybe his speed has played a larger role this year than in years past, but in general, don’t bank on him hitting .311 all season long.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Some fans may look at Stephen Strasburg and think that he’s having a fine year since his ERA is at 2.24. But it’s not as good as it’s been in years past.

In one aspect of the game, Strasburg is actually having one of his worst years. If the season ended today, it would be the first time his ERA was lower than his FIP, which is very crazy.

In each of the previous three seasons—albeit, he only pitched in five games two years ago and 12 the year prior—Strasburg has never had a year where his FIP was higher than his ERA.

This year, however, looks to be the year. It appears the main reason is that he isn’t striking out as many batters as he used to. Over the course of his career, he averages 10.52 strikeouts per nine innings. This year, he’s averaging 8.79.

Drew Stubbs, Cleveland Indians

Drew Stubbs must be enjoying his new home with the Indians because his overall play has improved since getting dealt to Cleveland over the offseason.

Stubbs was on a steady decline the last few years with the Reds but may be turning things now. He’s hitting .242/.294/.389 with seven homers and 34 RBI in 80 games.

Stubbs has been slightly overrated, though, if you look at his numbers. His career BABIP shows he’s a lucky guy, as it sits at .324. This year, however, he’s been extremely lucky or the AL is just much worse defensively than the NL. His .333 BABIP for the year suggests that his .242 will likely dip sooner rather than later.

Jason Marquis, San Diego Padres

Please don’t look at Jason Marquis’ ERA and think he’s having a good season, because it’s the most misleading out of any pitcher in baseball. Through 17 starts, his ERA sits at 3.74, which, if the season ended today, would be his best since 2004. But he’s actually pitched really poorly in 2013.

In 101 innings of work, he’s already given up 16 home runs. The difference between his ERA and FIP is the largest in the game, as it’s nearly two full runs.

The home runs are an issue, but another issue is the fact that he’s walking 5.35 batters per nine innings while only striking out 5.88. You can’t have long-term success with numbers like that.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have really gotten a lot of production out of Dexter Fowler this year. Through 70 games, he’s hitting .291/.390/.473 and will likely set new career highs in home runs, RBI, runs and stolen bases if he continues to play at his current pace for the remainder of the year.

But what’s the deal with the Rockies outfielder? Is he getting better, or are outside factors playing a large role?

Well, his numbers show he’s been constantly hitting better than he should be, as his career BABIP is at .353. The defense in the NL West has been good throughout his career, meaning he’s consistently getting lucky.

Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves

Last season, it was like Kris Medlen was one of the best things since sliced bread. This season, he’s looked like sliced bread but is really more of a poser.

Medlen’s 6-7 record might not be too pretty, but his 3.11 ERA isn’t too bad at all. In fact, it’s very good. But what’s not good are his FIP and xFIP.

Medlen’s ERA-to-FIP differential is one of the highest in baseball right now, as it’s just under a full run. The problem for the guy who went 10-1 last season is that he’s been walking more batters than before and striking out fewer. He hasn’t given up a ton of home runs—only 11 through 17 starts—but that needs to be lower too.

Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates

Starling Marte emerged onto the scene this season, as he was doing it all for the Pirates once the year began.

Now, he’s hitting .287/.341/.459 with eight home runs and 26 RBI. He’s also scored 54 runs and stolen 23 bases in just 79 games. Not bad, right? Right, but I’m a little concerned about that .287 average.

Marte hits a ton of ground balls. In fact, more than 50 percent of the balls that leave his bat are ground balls, which is extremely high. Also, his BABIP has been crazy high this season, as it currently sits at .357. That doesn’t seem like it’s going to be very sustainable going forward. He’ll probably finish 2013 hitting around .270.

Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics

When a 40-year-old is 11-3 and on the season, you have to know something is a little fishy. Bartolo Colon has been highly effective because he doesn’t walk anyone.

He’s only walked 14 batters in 113.1 innings, which is really incredible if you think about it. But is Colon having that good of a season? Let’s check the numbers.

Colon’s biggest problem in terms of sabermetrics is that he’s not a strikeout pitcher. He’s not going to take the mound on any given night and strike out eight guys. He might strike out four. FIP doesn’t care for non-strikeout pitchers, which is why his 3.39 FIP suggests he’s pitched better than he actually is in 2013.

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Joe Mauer may end up being the starting catcher for the American League at the All-Star Game, but he hasn’t had as good as a year as many are giving him credit for.

While Mauer has been great throughout the course of his career, this year has been a little bit different than before.

For one, Mauer is striking out nearly 20 percent of the time. In prior years, he’s never struck out more than 13.7 percent. Mauer has a high career BABIP of .348, but this year, it’s even higher, currently sitting at .382—which would be the highest of his career. Mauer’s hitting .315 through 78 games, but it should be much lower.

Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs

Travis Wood is pitching better than he did last year by a ton, but it still isn’t fantastic. Last season, he had a 4.27 ERA in 26 starts while giving up 25 home runs in 156 innings.

This season, he’s only given up eight home runs in 110.1 innings while posting a 2.69 ERA across 17 starts. Improvement? I think so.

While Wood’s walk rate continues to drop, he isn’t striking out enough batters to satisfy the needs of FIP—which is why there’s such a big gap between the two.

If Wood were striking out more batters and walking fewer, his ERA-to-FIP differential would be tiny. Since he isn’t, FIP says that he shouldn’t be pitching this well.

Everth Cabrera, San Diego Padres

Everth Cabrera is an interesting young player who might have a bright future with the Padres. Before this season, though, he wasn’t good at all—albeit he only played in at least 100 games in two seasons.

Last year, he played in 115 games and ended the season hitting .246. So, how is he hitting .305 this year? Something’s up.

Well, Cabrera is sporting a high BABIP this year of .365, which is probably why his average has increased so drastically from year to year.

While he may just be getting acclimated to facing big league pitching and is starting to catch fire, it’s a little premature for that. For now, his .305 average doesn’t look sustainable.

Ryan Dempster, Boston Red Sox

It may be hard to believe, but at 5-8 with a 4.11 ERA this year, Ryan Dempster should be pitching worse than he has been.

It’s been a struggle in the AL for the right-hander, as his command issues have been a nightmare this year. Through 17 starts, he’s walking 4.2 batters per nine innings, which is unacceptable.

Dempster’s current ERA isn’t great, but his 4.81 FIP is very poor. The walks have been a big part of the problem, but his ability to make good pitches has too.

If he were making good pitches, 17 wouldn’t have left the park this season. Dempster’s ERA should probably be much higher—like around the 4.75-5.00 range.