Ranking the Top 5 World Series Favorites at MLB's Midway Point
At the approximate midway point of the 2013 MLB season, we're getting a better grasp on which teams can seriously make a World Series run.
One of last year's cellar dwellers joins a reigning pennant winner on this prestigious list of championship favorites.
Keep in mind, the keys to qualifying for the postseason aren't necessarily as important when you're facing elimination in October.
Just ask Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer. He laid out his blueprint of common qualities that many recent title winners shared. Rymer's findings influenced what you'll see in the following slides, so open the article in a new tab and give it a thorough read...once you finish with this, of course.
Player movement between now and the trade deadline will obviously shake things up, but speculating who will land where—even with reputable sources—defeats the purpose of concrete analysis.
Let's stick with the latter and simply rank the top dogs, considering only players that they currently employ.
5. Boston Red Sox
1 of 52013 record: 48-33, first in AL East
Run differential: plus-81
What makes them great?
Practically every position player on the Red Sox active roster has great offensive potential. Most of them have been proving it early in 2013, which is why the Red Sox became the first MLB team to reach 400 runs.
They can hassle an opposing pitcher in so many ways. Sometimes it's Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino causing mayhem on the bases, Mike Napoli and David Ortiz swinging for the fences or Dustin Pedroia wearing out the defense by spreading hits to all fields.
Bringing in some Zachary D. Rymer insight, he sets 2.0 WPA (Win Probability Added) as a "pretty good bare minimum for a top-shelf closer." Therefore, the Red Sox should feel confident in Koji Uehara, who exceeded that in 2011, his only fully healthy season in relief. Even with half this season's schedule remaining, Baseball-Reference.com says that he's almost at that threshold again.
On the disabled list for an indefinite period, Clay Buchholz deserves praise, nonetheless. The American League ERA leader had been undefeated prior to suffering a trapezius injury, and he was spelling the bullpen by giving more than seven innings per start.
What should they be worried about?
Obviously, Boston needs its ace back. There's little chance of clinching the deep AL East without Buchholz.
Consider the drop-off from him to the other rotation members. Ryan Dempster, Felix Doubront, John Lackey and Jon Lester all boast above-average strikeout rates, but only Dempster has a sub-.250 batting average against opponents. None of them contribute great length during their outings.
The catching situation is definitely a concern. David Ross (concussion) isn't eligible to return from the 60-day disabled list until mid-August and nobody really knows if/when he'll get back to 100 percent.
In the meantime, Ryan Lavarnway and Jarrod Saltalamacchia must carry the load. Salty has always been a defensive liability, and both have had past difficulties putting balls in play against major league competition.
Who can make an impact down the stretch?
From the DL: Buchholz.
4. Oakland Athletics
2 of 52013 record: 46-34, second in AL West
Run differential: plus-54
What makes them great?
Without paying any of their players an eight-figure salary, the Oakland Athletics have packed ample power onto their roster. General manager Billy Beane deserves a tip of the hat for pulling that off when the rest of the league over-commits to sluggers (e.g. Adam Dunn, Josh Hamilton).
Zachary D. Rymer recommends that teams with World Series aspirations "load up corners with 100 home runs." In other words, triple-digit bombs from first basemen, third basemen, left fielders and right fielders.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the A's had only 46 home runs through 80 games from those positions, but there are reasons to expect that pace to quicken.
A wrist injury and ensuing stint on the disabled list limited Josh Reddick's production during the first half. While he won't mash 32 long balls again, he surely won't be stuck at three for much longer, either. Also, Yoenis Cespedes hit several of his homers as a center fielder when Coco Crisp was sidelined, but he'll start in left for the foreseeable future.
Oakland's bullpen is unheralded, yet outstanding. None of the difference-makers from the 2012 end-of-summer surge have shown any ill effects in terms of availability or performance. Grant Balfour, in particular, is on par with Koji Uehara—and essentially any other closer not named Mariano Rivera.
Even if 40-year-old Bartolo Colon doesn't continue his dominant streak, there's a solid group of young starters to trust. Jarrod Parker pitches almost as efficiently as Colon, and A.J. Griffin and Tommy Milone attack the strike zone with fearlessness. Each should finish 2013 comfortably above 180 innings.
Of course, let's not overlook Brett Anderson's potential contributions. The oft-injured southpaw is once again positioned to return to action down the stretch, this time from a fractured foot. You may remember his six scoreless frames last October against the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS (courtesy of MLB.com).
What should they be worried about?
There's still considerable doubt about the A's making the playoffs. They have 13 more games against the Los Angeles Angels and another nine against the Texas Rangers, both of whom can utilize their resources to make major acquisitions prior to the trade deadline.
The drawback of youngsters is their inexperience. Griffin, for example, is in his first full major league season. Who knows if his arm can handle all the exertion?
Despite all the compliments that can be said about Oakland's rotation, its pedestrian strikeout rate could be exploited. MLB champions have historically been driven by overpowering starters who minimize balls in play and the risk associated with pitching to contact.
Who can make an impact down the stretch?
From the DL: Anderson.
3. Cincinnati Reds
3 of 52013 record: 45-34, third in NL Central
Run differential: plus-47
What makes them great?
We can find strong resemblances between the rotations of the Oakland Athletics and Cincinnati Reds. Even their No. 6 options—Dan Straily and Tony Cingrani—possess similar potential.
Ultimately, if given a choice in the playoffs, take Cincinnati's crew. Homer Bailey and Mat Latos leave very little to chance with their high strikeout rates.
Aroldis Chapman is established as a top-five closer in the league. Excluding the infamous pastry game, the Cuban Missile has been equally intimidating in his second season working the ninth inning.
Probable NL All-Stars Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto reach base at higher clips than anyone else in the senior circuit. They make it easy for Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce to extend rallies. It's also important to recognize that the plate discipline Choo and Votto exhibit elevates pitch counts, thus chasing opposing starting pitchers to the clubhouse earlier.
With Bob Brenly (2001), Mike Scioscia (2002) and Ozzie Guillen (2005) as the sole exceptions, World Series champs of the past 15 seasons have been guided by managers with at least five years of MLB experience in that role. Dusty Baker has the lengthy tenure that usually distinguishes victorious skippers from the rest.
What should they be worried about?
When the Reds don't use extra-base hits, they don't score. They find the outfield gaps and the bleacher seats about as often as the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals, but pale in comparison in terms of getting baserunners to home plate.
Cincinnati often uses sacrifices to advance runners from station to station. Those other contenders, however, get by just fine with thier limited athleticism. They instead have superior situational hitters who find holes in the defense.
The Reds' bullpen was deemed one of baseball's steadiest entering 2013, but Baker certainly has some worries. Jonathan Broxton's stint on the disabled list is going to last longer than initially anticipated, and even when healthy, his wildness was discouraging (11 BB, 3 HBP in 27.0 IP). Due to a shoulder sprain, Sean Marshall isn't active right now, either.
Unless that pair reverts back to September 2012 form, there might not be any playoff baseball played at Great American Ball Park.
Who can make an impact down the stretch?
From the DL: Broxton, Ryan Ludwick, Marshall.
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2. Detroit Tigers
4 of 52013 record: 42-35, first in AL Central
Run differential: plus-71
What makes them great?
The Detroit Tigers' starting pitchers blend repeatable deliveries and filthy pure stuff unlike anybody else.
Each of the top four—Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez—would be a nightmare to face in cold October weather. Their K/9 entering June 28 are 10.2, 10.6, 7.0 and 11.1, respectively.
The frightening twist for the rest of the AL Central is that Verlander hasn't hit his stride yet. Detroit appears vulnerable, but largely because the BABIP against the 2011 AL MVP is atypically inflated. Don't be fooled, he's still a monster.
On the offensive side of things, it helps to have several ultra-durable position players. The core of Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta will almost certainly remain intact during crunch time considering that none of them have been on the disabled list since 2009.
We could easily dedicate an entire slide to Miggy, but to sum it up, he's practically unstoppable at the plate. Remarkably, the reigning AL Triple Crown-winner has shown improvement in all triple-slash categories (.368/.458/.666 with 22 HRs).
Yoenis Cespedes and Joey Votto can be susceptible to slumps because there is some swing-and-miss to their games.
The Tigers, however, don't have any doubts about Cabrera being his productive self from here on out.
What should they be worried about?
Designated hitter Victor Martinez is still quite questionable. Just when it looked like he was turning the page following a season-opening skid, he falls into another power outage (0 HR since June 8). The 34-year-old is 148th among 162 MLB qualifiers in OPS, according to FanGraphs.
With Alex Avila and Don Kelly struggling behind the plate and in left field, respectively, Detroit lacks ideal lineup depth.
As trade talks heat up, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press and countless others are eager to see how GM Dave Dombrowski resolves the back end of the bullpen.
Jose Valverde has been optioned to the minors, joining Bruce Rondon, the closer of the future who didn't seize his opportunities in either spring training or earlier this season. There's no timetable for Octavio Dotel's return from an elbow injury, and Phil Coke is enduring the worst year of his career.
Various media reports have linked the Tigers to Steve Cishek, Ryan Webb and Jonathan Papelbon. The Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati are among a host of teams that could compete for those same individuals.
Who can make an impact down the stretch?
From the DL: Avila, Sanchez.
1. St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 52013 record: 48-30, tied for first in NL Central
Run differential: plus-113
What makes them great?
From top to bottom, the St. Louis Cardinals' pitching staff exudes excellence.
Rotation leaders Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller have the precise command, endurance and consistency that teams need from starters as the season progresses. In terms of workload and whiff rate, Lance Lynn is right alongside them.
In the bullpen, Randy Choate is a dependable lefty specialist who perennially excels with the platoon advantage. At the end of games, the Cardinals have a powerful duo in Edward Mujica and Trevor Rosenthal. Their combined strikeout-to-walk ratio through 68 appearances has been 8.20, which is beyond unfair.
St. Louis instills a selfless approach within its young hitters and emphasizes driving in runs however possible.
"Don't try to do too much" might as well be the mantra.
The results speak for themselves. The Cards are scoring significantly more runs than other NL teams that play home games at a reasonable altitude. Collectively, they own a .337/.408/.463 batting line with runners in scoring position, and a slash line of .388/.403/.597 with the bases loaded.
Elite teams typically are strong up the middle, as Zachary D. Rymer illustrates. The catcher/second baseman/shortstop/center fielder units on the 2008-12 World Series winners were indispensable, just like the quartet on this St. Louis team.
As of June 28, Baseball-Reference.com estimates the total WAR of Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter, Pete Kozma and Jon Jay at 7.6 WAR. FanGraphs also holds them in high regard (7.9 WAR). Assuming those values double by season's end, the 2013 Cardinals would have another thing in common with recent champs.
Intangibles matter, too. Those who didn't begin their careers with the franchise—like Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday—were known as great clubhouses presences during their previous stops.
What should they be worried about?
Pinch-hitting can sometimes be the difference between winners and losers in the National League. The only two reserve players who can do it effectively on the Cardinals—Matt Adams and Daniel Descalso—both bat left-handed.
Unless Ty Wigginton shakes off his season-long mediocrity, a series of unfortunate late-inning matchups could send St. Louis home without a pennant.
This club's aforementioned awesomeness with RISP comes with an "unsustainable" disclaimer. The .319 BABIP these guys posted during their first 78 contests will inevitably tumble, regardless of their innovative mindsets and mechanically sound swings.
The Cards thrive or die based on what Molina does. The soon-to-be 31-year-old continues to perform at a Hall of Fame level, and manager Mike Matheny can't get enough.
Molina set a career high in plate appearances last season under his watch. He's projected to shatter that in 2013, not to mention catch more innings than ever before.
Perhaps Matheny should exercise caution now, just to ensure that the tires aren't flat when he needs to accelerate.
Who can make an impact down the stretch?
From the DL: Chris Carpenter.
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