2013 NFL Draft: First-Round Locks Destined to Disappoint Fans

 The NFL draft process is an inexact science. One team sees a star in the making. Another sees a high-risk, low-reward gamble.

That’s the danger of drafting in the first round, and it’s the reason so many players are given lofty expectations they are unable to shoulder.

Given the unpredictability of the draft process, every team has the potential to miss out on the perfect piece and instead select a player that ultimately doesn’t work out. This year will be no different.

It’s still early in the process, and the coming months will create a clearer picture of how things will shake out in April. We’ll take a look at some prospects that appear to be potential first-round talents but will fail to meet first-round expectations.

Geno Smith

Of all positions in the draft, quarterback is unequivocally the position of most need. Because of that, teams reach for a franchise quarterback in hopes of striking gold in the early rounds.

Smith will be a top-three selection in April, but his rise to the top of the draft board is a product of need versus value. He’s a good player, but he isn’t a top-three talent.

If Smith is selected at the top of the first round as many believe, he’ll be expected to be a game-changer for his franchise—lofty expectations for a quarterback who would have been an afterthought had he been a part of last year’s draft class, which included Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

Smith may have a productive career in the NFL, but he won’t have the same first-year success as Luck and Griffin. The bar is simply set too high.

Barkevious Mingo

Mingo is an extremely athletic and disruptive hybrid edge-rusher, but he isn’t a complete player.

This year’s draft class has been lauded as one of the best defensive draft classes in years, and players like Mingo will be expected to have an immediate impact at the next level. That may not be the case, though.

Mingo has to find the right fit to be successful early in his career. He’s a raw, unpolished defender with tremendous potential, but because of his size and athleticism, some teams would consider transitioning Mingo to 3-4 outside linebacker—a position that would require an adjustment from the defensive end position he played at LSU.

If he is a top-15 selection, Mingo will be expected to produce at that level as a rookie. He just may not be ready to do so without some added polish.

Manti Te’o

Te’o is a phenomenal player, but people are expecting too much of him.

As the leader of one of the best defenses in the nation in 2012, Te’o made a name for himself by being instinctual and fearless. He doesn’t have elite speed or athleticism, but he’s a natural leader and a tremendous football player.

The national championship game magnified some of Te’o’s flaws, though. He struggles to shed blocks at the line of scrimmage and was pushed around by a massive Alabama offensive line. Notre Dame’s 4-3 front required Te’o to work alone on many plays up the gut, raising questions about his ability to be disruptive against the run.

While Te’o is a talented pass defender and could work well in some 4-3 schemes that employ deep-middle coverage, he’s best suited for a 3-4 front in which he can have some help defending the run up the middle. He’s another great example of finding the right fit.

The production will be there for Te’o, but he may not be the superstar many fans believe he will be—at least not right away.