Breaking Down Baseball—2009 Outlook and Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

Year In Review: While always in playoff contention and five consecutive 85+ win seasons, the Phils could never seem to put it all together, after reaching the playoffs in 2007, the Phillies were quickly eliminated by a hot Rockies team, and coming into 2008, expectations were high, and the Phils were more than ready to step up.

A 90+ win season, and playoff success would soon follow. The question to be asked is do the Phillies have enough arms and firepower to repeat? After my dichotomous breakdown, the answer will soon become clear.

2008 Statistics and Record:

92-70. First in NL East. World Series Champs.      

Key Additions: LF Raul Ibanez, RP Chan Ho Park

Key Losses: LF Pat Burrell, RP Tom Gordon, OF So Taguchi, LHP J.C. Romero (SUSP)

Team Leaders: HITTING: AVG: Shane Victorino, .293. HR: Ryan Howard, 48. RBI: Ryan Howard.  PITCHING: ERA: Cole Hamels, 3.09. W: Jamie Moyer, 16. SO: Cole Hamels, 196.

Projected 2009 Lineup and Player Analysis:

1. SS Jimmy Rollins: The "spark plug" of the Phillies, when he's on base, he's causing havoc, which means the Phils are scoring runs. I expect a bounce back year from J-Roll as evidenced somewhat by his showing in the WBC.

People forget that Jimmy had an ankle sprain early last year, and missed significant time which led to the decrease in his production. He's got speed, surprising pop, and gold glove defense.

2009 Projected Line: .296, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 46 SB

2. CF Shane Victorino: The "Flyin Hawaiian" was in my eyes, the Phillies offensive MVP in the postseason last year. The speedster broke the Phils postseason record of 11 RBI. If he can hit .293 again and steal a few more bags, that will be all that's asked of him in this lineup.

2009 Projected Line: .295, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 42 SB

3. 2B Chase Utley: One of my favorite players in baseball today, gritty and hard-nosed, this guy brings it every day. Expected to be out for opening day, Utley is looking healthier and healthier in Spring Training, even popping homers in consecutive days. Opening night doesn't look so far-fetched now.

Struggled with a nagging hip injury last year, but had offseason surgery and should be ready to roll. Best 2B in the league in my opinion, his stats speak for themselves.

2009 Projected Line: .310, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 18 SB

4. 1B Ryan Howard: The bruiser in this Phils lineup, Howard's off to a smoking start in Spring Training and leads the majors with eight dingers. T

hough his questionable defense and K's dampen his reputation a bit, this guy is a beast, and his productivity is undeniable, expect a Howard-esque year, in other words, be amazed again. 

2009 Projected Line: .265, 51 HR, 149 RBI, 2 SB

5. RF Jayson Werth: Seizing his opportunity to become an everyday player in 2008, Werth goes into 2009 as the starting Right Fielder. This guy is also my breakout player of 2009. He's got all the tools, good pop, surprising speed, and a great arm.

Don't be surprised if he hits 30+ homers this year while swiping around 25 to 30 bags, I believe his full potential will be unleashed.

2009 Projected Line: .289, 31 HR, 92 RBI, 26 SB

6. LF Raul Ibanez: After the departure of former LF Pat Burrell, the Phils acted quickly and signed the veteran free agent LF Raul Ibanez from Seattle, the tough love saga that was Pat Burrell is now over in Philly, and I wish him the best of luck.

I don't believe the Phils lose much with Ibanez, maybe a little pop, but Ibanez has a much better career average than Burrell and a tad more speed. Possibly the best six hole hitter in the NL (Burrell, '08 .258, 33 HR, Ibanez, '08 .296, 23 HR)

2009 Projected Line: .287, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 2 SB

7. 3B Pedro Feliz: Recovering from back surgery, Feliz is off to a slow start in spring training, and hasn't quite lived up to expectations in Philly. I expect somewhat of a bounce back year from Feliz, but he could also have a slow start.

Pinch hit extraordinaire, and backup 3B Greg Dobbs, could also steal at bats from Feliz against tough righties. Still not a bad seven hole hitter.

2009 Projected Line: .264, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB

8. C Carlos Ruiz: Ruiz had a bad year in '08, though a defensive whiz behind the plate (have to be to catch a Lidge slider), he suffered through a bad offensive season, hitting only .219, and even lost a few at bats to the veteran C Chris Coste.

With prospect C Lou Marson waiting in the wings, Ruiz needs to have a bounce back year, perhaps similar to his '07 campaign (.258) or have his job in jeopardy come 2010, possibly even post all star break '09.

2009 Projected Line: .243, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 2 SB

2009 Hitter To Watch: RF Jayson Werth. You know how I feel about him. Pure talent.

2009 Pitcher To Watch: RHP Brett Myers. This may seem weird to a few fans, but Brett is in a contract year, and came into camp light and fit, still has good velocity and an excellent curveball. I feel like he wants to prove he's a good pitcher more than he ever has. Just a gut feeling.

On The Rise: CF Shane Victorino. Something tells me this guy's got a high ceiling, and could be a serious base stealer with the right training.

On The Decline: SP Jamie Moyer. I love Jamie and love watching him pitch, his pitching style is an art, and we really need more character guys like him in baseball, and the world for that matter, but his velocity only goes down from here and at his age, you have to think he slows down at some point.

The Positive: The Phillies didn't lose much this year. They still have perennial MVP's in Rollins, Utley, and Howard, a solid bullpen, and perhaps the best rotation they've had in years.

The Negative: Losing J.C. Romero for the first 50 will be a blow, but I think they can manage. I don't like the bottom of the lineup as much as I should, if Feliz and Ruiz should both struggle, that could be a problem, and possibly prompt the promotion of young 3B Jason Donald, and C Lou Marson.

Hamels also logged a lot of innings and had elbow tightness earlier in spring training, which brings his health a bit into question.

2009 Overview and Projection:

The Phillies in my eyes are better than the World Series team of last year. I expect the Phils to be in playoff contention again, and perhaps even exceed 100 regular season wins. All signs point to a few solid years ahead for this young Phillies team.

2009 Record: 101-61